Monday, July 22, 2013

Najib's Perverse Incentive

Hantu Laut

Two more days to Kuala Besut by-election. What are the chances of PAS winning this one?

It is almost certain that BN will win this by-election, but like in all election there are elements of surprise and a PAS win will be Najib's big loss. A loss that may eventually lead to his removal.

At the moment he has no rival that can match him for the UMNO presidency, but things can change very quickly as there are barbarians at the gate waiting for the gate to open.

Najib is already the weakest prime minister after failing to improve on BN worst performance in 2008 that eventually brought down his predecessor Abdulah Ahmad Badawi. He fared worse than Badawi in total number of seat for BN, but improved on the Malays votes, which will be the bulwark of Malay political power.

BN can only stay in power if it can preserve the rural Malays, Sabah and Sarawak natives votes. The 13th GE has shown that BN can go without Chinese votes. However, getting two-thirds will be a long distance call.

One can't blame Najib for not trying. He tried his best to woo the Chinese with his offering of magnanimity, but was completely forsaken by the Chinese community. 

The Chinese can live in a state of denial that it was not a Chinese tsunami, in reality it was, with a little help from the urban Malays, who rightly or wrongly think they do not need the stale and outdated UMNO anymore. 

To the urban Malays UMNO has failed and corruptions had become so entrenched it is almost impossible to change the mindset of the leaders. UMNO will only change after they have tasted defeat.

The Chinese are completely disillusioned with the Chinese parties in BN considered as lapdogs of UMNO and saw in DAP the rise of Chinese political power. Almost 8 out of every 10 Chinese voters voted for DAP. Without the massive support DAP would not have been able to to garner 38 parliamentary seats and was leader of the pack.

PAS lamented that Najib is again pumping too much taxpayers money into the by-election, which they reckoned has reached RM377 million. A princely sum for such a small district.

Will the money and promises of developmental projects ensure a BN win?

Najib did the same at the 13th GE offering donations to Chinese schools and other give aways to the community. He used billion of ringgits for his BRIM payout. 

As Mahathir says there was no effect on the people of his benevolence because the rakyat knew it was not his money, it's the rakyat's money.

I agree with Mahathir, it's perverse incentive or a cobra effect. Read what cobra effect here.


Cormoran Strike said...

Well, all it takes is for one rating agency to downgrade Malaysia's credit rating.

Will it be Fitch, Moody's or Standard & Poor's?

That will put the kibosh on the PM's GTP, ETP etc.

Meanwhile, everyone is busy looking for the hay while the sun still shines?

What will happen when winter comes around?

Anonymous said...

Consider the following:
1. With control of 80 per cent of the economy (unassailable position, as 70 per cent of the economy is said to be non-halal)the Chinese saw the time has come to go for supreme political power.
2. This will have to start with a 'Chinese Tsunami', taking the Chinese under one party and destroying the rest, particularly MCA under which the Chinese have (directly or indirectly) amassed untold economic wealth (hence, the apt question, "Apa lagi Cina mahu?". The objective of taking over political power would be targeted for completion in another two general elections, when more than two thirds of Pakatan MPs are non-muslims and able to do away with the "social contract"
3. The most ideal Malay partners would be PKR and PAS. PKR was formed by former UMNO members to save Anwar and is presently a replica of BN's Gerakan. Both PKR and PAS can be severely weakened in the next two GEs. Note how PAS is now (after the last GE) less of portent and how half of PKR's MPs are non-Malays.

The so-called urban Malays who voted for Chinese candidates belong to PKR and PAS. They have to do this in exchange for Chinese support in areas where their candidates contest. Prime examples of this practice is in Pandan and Gelang Patah during the 13GE.

God bless the Malays.

Anonymous said...

DOn't you think Mamakutty's statement is selfish?

He throws billions into his cronies project whereas Najib gives outright to the people.

So, who's the better PM and less selfish?

SM said...


The strategy used by Najib was drawn up by "Yes-men" & cronies who just wanted to take their "cut" off the money doled out! My UMNO friends said that the "Middle-men" dishing out money to voters kept 50% for themselves!

The Chinese don't need to be bribed with Money. They want a real ETP not some "Slogan" type chant that is very similar to what the Yanks have in all their speeches.

No matter what people say about Mahatir (& most of them are true!), he isnt stupid (unlike most of the toads who follow him).

You have the right title to your article.....Perverse Incentive is correct BUT the wrong strategy (& as you so rightly pointed out, he's doing the same in this By-Election (RM377m of our hard earned tax money!). But then again, it maybe the right strategy here! Sorry to say that bribing the Rural Folk seems to have always worked for UMNO!

Anonymous said...

sick mind says, "My UMNO friends said that the "Middle-men" dishing out money to voters kept 50% for themselves!"

wow!! are you the middle-man?? and you've got UMNO friends??

how sneaky can anyone get??

Anonymous said...

Malaysian is a poor negotiator. From beginning of Malaysia history we have failed to negotiate with British to ask them to return back all the immigrants that they had brought to this country. This has turns to become pain in the ass as they are becoming more and more ungrateful and very unreasonable. They want more and take all they can graze. Glutton creature same species with pig by behavior.

SM said...


Oh-oh....the Retards (Anonymous 4:37pm) have surfaced here now!

Anonymous said...

awww come on sick mind

show some intellect lah please instead of your inconsequential attempts at self-glory that reveals your substandard IQ