Hantu Laut
Hooray! The price of crude had fallen below $50 a barrel.The price slid to as low as $48.64 today.Who was right those mumble-jumble sycophantic economists or .........? Than you have those who made foreccasts and predictions but didn't have the balls to put their names on it.
Employing academicians who spent more time trying to please their bosses to listen to what is pleasant to their bosses' ears rather than doing some serious research to predict short and long term economic trends is as good as not having any of those blighters on board.They are not worth their salt.
It is even more disheartening to hear that almost every leader in our government are sold on the idea of the nation's immunity to the global economic meltdown purportedly due to our strong banking/financial system and strong fundamentals whatever that might mean.
Strong finances and healthy foreign reserves are just some of the many components that make up the whole economic pie.There is an array of other things that influence the workings of the economy which eventually boils down to one single objective, the making of money.The more money a nation has the more prosperous the people are .There are only two things money can't buy in this world, the air we breathe and immortality, everything else costs money.
In economics, one must not forget the law of supply and demand, the very essence of market forces.Dearth of supply will increase prices, abundance of supply will depress prices.Than there is a new element, not found in the old economic theory, that have been added to the new scheme of things to influence market and market prices, it is called speculation.Speculation can be a powerful tool in setting market prices.These are the wonderful inventions of the economic gangsters.These are bands of white collar criminals loaded with other people's money to raid the world markets in search of anything they can get their hands on and steal your whole life saving away from you. Would you in your wildest dream ever imagined that the price of palm oil can touch RM4,500 per ton ? Do you honestly think that's the real value of the commodity? Do you think price of crude oil at US$147 a barrel is a reasonable level for optimum economic consumption? Just like a balloon if over inflated it would burst and burst it had.
Over the past two decades the world has been teetering on the verge of an economic disaster never seen before due to over-speculative indulgences in every aspect of its commercial activities.The bubble had burst and would take a while to recover.
If the Malaysian government think they have consummated defences against catching the bug that most other more developed countries are caught in and are presently in the throes of recession than there must be something wrong with the yardstick we used to measure our economic activities.The sooner we wake up to the reality that the honeymoon and the good time will be taking a break soon the better it would be, at least to have a contingency plan in case the situation turned bad.
In the United States (US) the three big car makers in Detroit have recently declared they are in serious financial trouble.General Motors(GM) the leading car makers have cash reserve of US$30 billion and have declared they would be running out of cash in 2 to 3 months time.With the dramatic decline in sales of its cars the company have to use its cash reserve to pay for its recurring expenditure at the rate of US$5 billion a month which means the total reserve would be completely exhausted in 6 months.So, even if you have money when things go bad, that money will be gone in no time.As at September 2008 Malaysia's foreign reserve stood at US$32.3 billion, not much bigger than the GM's reserve.
The three big car makers GM,Ford and Chrysler were not on the original list of patients for bail-outs when the US Congress approved the bail-out package.They are now seeking government bail-out which they probably will not get.Their troubles are of their own making, incompetent management and products quality problem.The same problem faced by Proton here.
I believe the US Government will not bail them out but would ask them to file for Chapter 11, a bankruptcy protection from creditors that allow the company to reorganise without threat of foreclosure from creditors.Some creditors may end up as shareholders of the company under a reorganised scheme.
I have said in my earlier posts there is usually a time lapse before we feel the effect of the global recession.At the moment everything seems fine but it may not be so by the end of the 1st quarter of next year when the recession bites in,unless something dramatically good happened along the way that changed the whole global economic scenario.
Precaution is better than cure.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Drowning In The Sea Of Idiocy
Hantu Laut
Sometimes, you wonder whether some of our Federal ministers know what they are doing and whether they know the boundary of their jurisdiction.Where they should poke their nose and where they shouldn't.
I am surprise that the Federal Minister of Tourism Azalina Othman jumped on the bandwagon without first checking her facts.What makes she think she has jurisdiction over land matters and development in Sabah.These are state matters and she should buzz off.Simply reading something in the newspaper and jumping to conclusion that something was very wrong with the development and making stupid statement in the media just to seek publicity goes to show that she has poor grasp of her functions and responsibilities.
“I am personally unhappy because I believe that the place is best left untouched" she said.How much does she know about Sabah let alone Mabul and Sipadan. Does she know there were at least four resorts built over waters in Mabul and no one made any noise before. As a politician can't she tell between a politically motivated action and those that really concern the environment.
Mabul reef was bombed to smithereens before those resorts came to Mabul.Every bit of coral was blown to pieces and in some area one can only see white patches of broken corals.
Clean your own backyard first before you start poking you nose into something that doesn't concern you.
Only the Prime Minister can talk or instruct the Chief Minister of Sabah by virtue of it being under the BN Government and the PM is the ultimate boss.Other Federal Ministers have no right to tell the CM what to do on state matters.They are below him in protocol when they come to Sabah.It goes without saying Sabahans being more cultured and more civilised in manners (except Bung Mukthar) always give due respect and show of hospitality not only to Federal ministers but to anyone who come to visit the state.Unfortunately, some are just too moronic to understand this simple social etiquette and mistook it as they are superior in rank.
If Sabah is under the opposition like Penang,Kelantan,Perak,Kedah and Selangor even the PM has no power or authority to interfere in state matters.In fact Sabah and Sarawak have bigger autonomy in state matters than other states in Malaysia.Those were conditions set by the two Bornean states when Malaysia was formed.
How bright can one be to have the audacity to propose the building of a sport complex in London at the expense of the Malaysian taxpayers on a mindless reasoning of training our athletes to challenge hypothermia to acclimatise them to polar climatic conditions.
So, Azalina know you stuff first before you start barking up the wrong tree.It is people like you that put Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in a badlight.
Sabah has its own Minister of Tourism.You are complementary.
In Sabah, we call this kind of action 'temberang'.
Sometimes, you wonder whether some of our Federal ministers know what they are doing and whether they know the boundary of their jurisdiction.Where they should poke their nose and where they shouldn't.
I am surprise that the Federal Minister of Tourism Azalina Othman jumped on the bandwagon without first checking her facts.What makes she think she has jurisdiction over land matters and development in Sabah.These are state matters and she should buzz off.Simply reading something in the newspaper and jumping to conclusion that something was very wrong with the development and making stupid statement in the media just to seek publicity goes to show that she has poor grasp of her functions and responsibilities.
“I am personally unhappy because I believe that the place is best left untouched" she said.How much does she know about Sabah let alone Mabul and Sipadan. Does she know there were at least four resorts built over waters in Mabul and no one made any noise before. As a politician can't she tell between a politically motivated action and those that really concern the environment.
Mabul reef was bombed to smithereens before those resorts came to Mabul.Every bit of coral was blown to pieces and in some area one can only see white patches of broken corals.
Clean your own backyard first before you start poking you nose into something that doesn't concern you.
Only the Prime Minister can talk or instruct the Chief Minister of Sabah by virtue of it being under the BN Government and the PM is the ultimate boss.Other Federal Ministers have no right to tell the CM what to do on state matters.They are below him in protocol when they come to Sabah.It goes without saying Sabahans being more cultured and more civilised in manners (except Bung Mukthar) always give due respect and show of hospitality not only to Federal ministers but to anyone who come to visit the state.Unfortunately, some are just too moronic to understand this simple social etiquette and mistook it as they are superior in rank.
If Sabah is under the opposition like Penang,Kelantan,Perak,Kedah and Selangor even the PM has no power or authority to interfere in state matters.In fact Sabah and Sarawak have bigger autonomy in state matters than other states in Malaysia.Those were conditions set by the two Bornean states when Malaysia was formed.
How bright can one be to have the audacity to propose the building of a sport complex in London at the expense of the Malaysian taxpayers on a mindless reasoning of training our athletes to challenge hypothermia to acclimatise them to polar climatic conditions.
So, Azalina know you stuff first before you start barking up the wrong tree.It is people like you that put Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in a badlight.
Sabah has its own Minister of Tourism.You are complementary.
In Sabah, we call this kind of action 'temberang'.
Hell Hath No Fury Like A Woman Scorned
Hantu Laut
The contest for the top post of Wanita UMNO is taking on the shape of a match between David and Goliath.It seems so but might not be so.
The shrewed, aggressive and volatile incumbent Rafidah Aziz got 117 nominations against potential challenger Shahrizat Jalil who got an impressive 73 nominations in spite of the fact that she is supposed to contest the deputy post and not the chief post.There are voices of discontent in Wanita UMNO against Rafidah pushing her luck.
Rafidah didn't expect someone to spring a surprise and challenge the deputy Wanita position putting the whole succession plan in disarry and a threat to Shahrizat's chance of taking the deputy post and successor to the Wanita Chief position when Rafidah step down in June next year. Her refusal to bring forward the succession plan to March as requested by Shahrizat and the new development is likely to cause Shahrizat to challenge her.Do not underestimate her capability to spring a surprise of her own.The demure Shahrizat may not be as aggressive and volatile as Rafidah but she could be a wolf in sheep clothing.
The ground is swelling in opposition to Rafidah's power crazy decision to contest the Wanita Chief post which she had held since 1984 with a short break of three years when she lost to Dr Siti Zaharah Sulaiman.Many in the Wanita wing felt she has been there far too long.
Many leaders in UMNO have surpassed their shelf-life but refused to go, wanting to keep their position for life and Rafidah is one of those that may have reached the end of her shelf-live.How she obtained such high number of nominations is a mystery.
She has also been implicated in the over-indulgence of issuing of Approved Permits (AP) for the benefits of a few people close to her.Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad blamed her for the losses at Proton due to the big invasion of imported cars that compete with the national car.In spite of this allegation the issuance of AP continued unabated during her tenure.
Prime Minister Abdullah has said he would mediate the two to resolve the problem.I think the Prime Minister should leave the two ladies alone, let them fight it out.There is no such thing as the tussle would split the party, it is good for the party, it should teach people how to compete.Such argument is reserved only for those who are coward, unsure of themselves and feared being challenged.
Shahrizat felt she has been played out and I don't blame her for being so.With more than sufficient nominations there is no reason why she shouldn't take on Rafidah.Better to die fighting the champion than die fighting an unknown killer.
They say 'Hell hath no fury like a women scorned'. Shahrizat can surely rock the boat in a sea of discontent and send Rafidah plunging into the sea.
I place my bet on Shahrizat.
The contest for the top post of Wanita UMNO is taking on the shape of a match between David and Goliath.It seems so but might not be so.
The shrewed, aggressive and volatile incumbent Rafidah Aziz got 117 nominations against potential challenger Shahrizat Jalil who got an impressive 73 nominations in spite of the fact that she is supposed to contest the deputy post and not the chief post.There are voices of discontent in Wanita UMNO against Rafidah pushing her luck.
Rafidah didn't expect someone to spring a surprise and challenge the deputy Wanita position putting the whole succession plan in disarry and a threat to Shahrizat's chance of taking the deputy post and successor to the Wanita Chief position when Rafidah step down in June next year. Her refusal to bring forward the succession plan to March as requested by Shahrizat and the new development is likely to cause Shahrizat to challenge her.Do not underestimate her capability to spring a surprise of her own.The demure Shahrizat may not be as aggressive and volatile as Rafidah but she could be a wolf in sheep clothing.
The ground is swelling in opposition to Rafidah's power crazy decision to contest the Wanita Chief post which she had held since 1984 with a short break of three years when she lost to Dr Siti Zaharah Sulaiman.Many in the Wanita wing felt she has been there far too long.
Many leaders in UMNO have surpassed their shelf-life but refused to go, wanting to keep their position for life and Rafidah is one of those that may have reached the end of her shelf-live.How she obtained such high number of nominations is a mystery.
She has also been implicated in the over-indulgence of issuing of Approved Permits (AP) for the benefits of a few people close to her.Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad blamed her for the losses at Proton due to the big invasion of imported cars that compete with the national car.In spite of this allegation the issuance of AP continued unabated during her tenure.
Prime Minister Abdullah has said he would mediate the two to resolve the problem.I think the Prime Minister should leave the two ladies alone, let them fight it out.There is no such thing as the tussle would split the party, it is good for the party, it should teach people how to compete.Such argument is reserved only for those who are coward, unsure of themselves and feared being challenged.
Shahrizat felt she has been played out and I don't blame her for being so.With more than sufficient nominations there is no reason why she shouldn't take on Rafidah.Better to die fighting the champion than die fighting an unknown killer.
They say 'Hell hath no fury like a women scorned'. Shahrizat can surely rock the boat in a sea of discontent and send Rafidah plunging into the sea.
I place my bet on Shahrizat.
Petrol And Diesel Below MR1.50 A Litre ?
Hantu Laut
In my post 'Where Crude Oil Heading For' I predicted the price of crude would fall below US$50 per barrel.The likelihood of it going below that level look more and more realistic now.The huge stockpile in the US helped to drive price down.OPEC's production cut have not helped to stabilise price.The cut of 2 million barrel a day since September had no effect on keeping price sliding further down. The group are calling for further cuts.
India and China would require less need for energy as their economies begin to slow down in the next few months.Japan, one of the largest economy in the world is in a recession.The US,Europe ( the largest in the world) and most other countries are already in a recession.Only Malaysia and most third world countries are not ?
The current US crude price stand at US$53.90.The London Brent closed nearer the $50 mark at US$51.84 a barrel.Unusually cheaper than WTI ( West Texas Intermediate) which used to get around $1.00 to $2.00 higher than Brent.WTI is sweeter than Brent with lower sulphur content hence the higher price.
In 1998 the average price for crude was about US$12.00 a barrel and 4 years ago the average price was about US$38.00 a barrel.The price peaked at $147 few months back not so much due to supply and demand but more due to speculations by nasty speculators.
Middle East producers which have lower production costs may be able to sustain such low prices but new oilfields and those in deep waters may lose money due to higher production costs.
Those in Petronas may not be the happiest people now if they don't have huge forward contracts. If they didn't have any than production cut should be an option to cut down losses.
Malaysian motorists should be happy soon if the government continued to pass on the cheaper price.If price falls below US$50 a barrel than the price of petrol and diesel can posssibly be adjusted to as low as RM1.50 a litre.
In my post 'Where Crude Oil Heading For' I predicted the price of crude would fall below US$50 per barrel.The likelihood of it going below that level look more and more realistic now.The huge stockpile in the US helped to drive price down.OPEC's production cut have not helped to stabilise price.The cut of 2 million barrel a day since September had no effect on keeping price sliding further down. The group are calling for further cuts.
India and China would require less need for energy as their economies begin to slow down in the next few months.Japan, one of the largest economy in the world is in a recession.The US,Europe ( the largest in the world) and most other countries are already in a recession.Only Malaysia and most third world countries are not ?
The current US crude price stand at US$53.90.The London Brent closed nearer the $50 mark at US$51.84 a barrel.Unusually cheaper than WTI ( West Texas Intermediate) which used to get around $1.00 to $2.00 higher than Brent.WTI is sweeter than Brent with lower sulphur content hence the higher price.
In 1998 the average price for crude was about US$12.00 a barrel and 4 years ago the average price was about US$38.00 a barrel.The price peaked at $147 few months back not so much due to supply and demand but more due to speculations by nasty speculators.
Middle East producers which have lower production costs may be able to sustain such low prices but new oilfields and those in deep waters may lose money due to higher production costs.
Those in Petronas may not be the happiest people now if they don't have huge forward contracts. If they didn't have any than production cut should be an option to cut down losses.
Malaysian motorists should be happy soon if the government continued to pass on the cheaper price.If price falls below US$50 a barrel than the price of petrol and diesel can posssibly be adjusted to as low as RM1.50 a litre.
Before 1990 the price of petrol was RM0.89 a litre.The drastic increase was this year when crude price shot up to as high as US$ 147 a barrel.At least for the next few months Malaysians should be happy with cheaper fuel and falling prices of other consumer goods.
Farmers must be the dumbest people. At least in Sabah they are.The prices of green had gone up about two weeks ago when most other items are falling.
The price of crude may pick up again during the 1st or 2nd Quarter of next year if the global economy do not slide further down and those greedy hedge funds stopped screwing the world's financial markets again.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)