Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Will Najib Survive The Next Term ?

Hantu Laut

If Najib were to survive the next term as prime minister of this nation he needs to create a nation of thriving communities where everyone feel they have a share in the nation.A sense of belonging.A sense of being proud to be Malaysian, not as Malay, Chinese, Indian or Others but as Malaysians.His 1 Malaysia fits well only if it is implemented true to the word.The only way this can be achieved is through the creation of prosperity, eradication of poverty and fair treatment of all the races. The NEP need not be abolished in toto but should be fine-tuned to be in line with the current situation and not to be used as a gravy train but genuinely use for helping less fortunate Malays.


Prosperity of a nation depended on the soundness of its economy.Setting the economy properly on the spindle should be Najib's priority if he wants it to spin at optimum speed.He has only three years to redeem the loss of confidence under Abdullah Badawi.It would be a feat but not impossible.

After almost four decades in government he should have the experience to do the job.He would be a better finance minister to take the country out of the current economic crisis, certainly better than Anwar Ibrahim who had been proven to be a standard issue when he wanted to seek assistance of IMF and comply with their terms during the Asian financial crisis in 1997 against the wishes of the then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad. Malaysia got out of the financial mess unscathed and credit should be given to Mahathir for his grit when his finance minister at that time has thrown in the towel.


Najib should ignore the political rhetoric of the oppositions.Their dirty political campaign is for the sole purpose of diverting his attention from the real danger, the falling economy. All the mud-slinging and dirty campaigns against him were intended to inflict maximum damage to his reputation and kill his enthusiasm.They seriously wanted him to fail to revive the economy.A failed economy would give the oppositions a better chance of taking over the central government.

Responding to such organised dirty tactic with police action is exactly what the oppositions wanted him to do so they can use it as political capital to convince the people that he is an unfit leader. The video below is just one of the many examples of organised dirty campaign and mud-slinging by the oppositions against him and the BN government.What's the point of harping on the same sour note every time they take to the podium.This MP sounds ridiculously stupid by saying it was also published by the international media implying there is truth in it.That is the sorry state of Pakatan leaders, their fixated holier than thou attitude and half-arsed rhetoric
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Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad managed to rule this nation for 22 years with authoritarian hand and yet the nation had stayed peaceful with no major racial tension, even if there were some, they were nicely tucked away below the surface.Mahathir was able to do this because of prosperity.The nation economy grew substantially during his tenure and though the NEP was there he did not apply it stringently. The Chinese and Indians were fairly happy and played very supportive role in keeping the BN government in power.One just have to look at the KLSE and it would not be wrong to conclude that most of the listed companies are controlled by Chinese businessmen. The majority of the heavy league bumiputra companies on the KLSE are government-linked.The number of individual bumiputra companies are no match with that of the Chinese.

One must admit that the Chinese are laborious people and have much longer history of business culture in them.The story of rag to riches were aplenty in this particular community gained through perseverance and hard work.Needless to say the Chinese also controlled over 90 percent of the retail trade.Although, Malays formed the majority in this country, go to any major cities and towns and see how almost all kind of businesses are dominated by the Chinese.

Najib should pay serious attention to the Chinese contributions to the economy and should tap their expertise and resources in the economic field and not only confine himself to bumiputra advisers.
The people around him should have a cosmopolitan look.

There are many resource rich countries that can't be considered prosperous.Countries like Brazil,Russia, South Africa,Nigeria are just some example of resource rich countries that definitely wouldn't fall in the prosperous category.On the other hand countries like Singapore,Finland,Switzerland,Austria lack natural resources but enjoy tremendous stability and prosperity.In some cases the people don't even bother about politics or try to change the government unless the political system made it mandatory to do so as in the case of the US where the President can only hold office for two terms.

I have always been a proponent that UMNO should not contest the Penanti by-election to see how popular the Pakatan camp is without UMNO upsetting the nest.The result of Penanti, which is within Anwar's impenetrable fortress, is obvious that they are not as hot as they made it out to be.The turn-out was less than 50 percent. The Malays are not falling head over heel to vote for them.As usual to pull wool over the people's eyes they have to blame Najib and UMNO for the low turn out.

The Malaysian Insider which lately seems to have turned the table and are more vocal against the establishment published a survey of Najib's popularity poll and came out with some very surprising results.Overall only 16% of respondent are dissatisfied with Najib as PM while 45% gave him a thump-up.Even more surprising and unexpected on racial breakdown 64% of Indians are happy with him and only 15% are not.The figure with the Chinese was a bit dismal, only 24% are happy and 23% are not and 53% did not respond which means the Chinese are mostly fence-sitters.


For a man with a heavy baggage and constantly under personal attack by the oppositions the results is most unexpected.However, see what this anti-Najib blogger wrote here. So, there is hope for Najib after all.

He has been in office for less than a hundred days, give him a year, I believe the rating would rise in his favour.

It's the state of the economy that's going to decide the future of BN as a government and it fell on Najib to find the magic formula to bring back prosperity and unity to the people.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Drowning, not waving?

The world economy

Drowning, not waving?

May 29th 2009
From Economist.com

Don't get too excited about some recent brighter economic news


IT HAS been a cheerful couple of days for those starved of bright economic news. Hopeful statistics have been trickling in from many parts of the world. On Friday May 29th revised first quarter GDP figures for America showed that the economy there had contracted slightly less than had earlier been reported. In addition durable-goods orders in the country rose by the most in 16 months. In Japan, factory output rose by 5.2% in April, the biggest monthly increase, in percentage terms, in over half a century. And in the first quarter India’s economy grew by a bullish 5.8%, compared with a year before, while South Korea’s industrial production continued to rise in April.

Even in gloomy Europe there are encouraging signs. Poland’s GDP ticked up by 0.8% in the first quarter, as did German private consumption (in the same period) and retail sales also grew, by 0.5%, in April. British consumer confidence remained steady in April, and house prices there rose both in March and May, according to one index.

For optimists, these are all signs that might point towards the beginning of the end of the “Great Recession”. Headline writers, and those who are urging stockmarkets to continue rising, will continue to talk of hopes of recovery. Yet a closer look at the detail of the latest figures suggests that hope springs eternal and will latch on to what it can—even when a more sober analysis would suggest there is a long way to go before recovery sets in.

Optimists make much of statistics that beat analysts’ expectations. But when a particular figure outdoes predictions it may be because those expectations were overly pessimistic, rather than a sign that something fundamental has changed for the better.

What, for instance, is the right reference point on the latest news on India's economy? Doomsters might fret that it has grown at the slowest quarterly pace in several years. Cheerleaders could rejoice that it has expanded slightly faster than most people had expected. Weary of negative news, the latter explanation is a tempting way to make sense of the numbers, but the gloomy view is equally valid.

Consider, too, the figures for consumer confidence in Britain. Although consumer gloom seems to have abated, the reported level of –27 is remarkably low by historical standards. If one takes into account reports that British consumers had been growing a bit more confident in recent months, the latest statistic could suggest a halt to a small rally, which is hardly something to cheer. This example highlights the difficulty of extrapolating from a single month or quarter of data, which can easily be skewed by one-off events such as a national holiday or sudden desperate measures by retailers to offload stock. Discerning whether a more sustained recovery might be under way takes, unsurprisingly, more data. Read more.......


Friday, May 29, 2009

Malaysia In For Rough Weather

Hantu Laut

The GDP contracted 6.2 percent in the first quarter of this year.With two consecutive quarters in decline the country is positively in recession, a scenario refuted by those in government just two months ago, a chink in the armour of the economic intelligentsia, saying what the leaders wanted them to say. Export plummeted 25 percent and private investment declined 26 percent. A hard biting recession is on the horizon.


Malaysia is in the top 20 trading nations, an enviable position for a small nation but could be a huge problem in bad times. A global recession would seriously affect Malaysia's exports.The picture is going to get worse before it gets better.In my December 2008 article here I predicted 2009 GDP of 2 percent and possibly into negative territory.At that time the government was still insistent on growth of 5.3 percent.

The government stimulus package announced earlier seems not to have kicked in making it appears that it has not been implemented as vigorously as promised.In my article here I predicted export would decline by 20 to 30 percent in the first quarter of this year.

It looks like Malaysia is not going to be spared the hard-hitting recession, wrongly predicted by the Governor of Bank Negara and previous second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop who predicted recession will not come our way.

If the economy doesn't pick up during the second half of this year there would be a new gloom on the horizon, the banking system may be in for rough weather.The current good liquidity may evanescent quickly if the economy continued with its downward spiral.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Perempuan Ronggeng ?

Hantu Laut

Are they any better than the devil they painted of UMNO and the BN.They showed utter disgust and threw tantrums when BN lawmakers made sexist remark in Parliament.

This double standard hypocritical bunch of political stragglers are worse than the BN undesirables.

PKR's VP Azmin Ali resorted to unrefined language when he called Aminah Abdullah 'Minah Ronggeng'

My wife is half Javanese and half Chinese and according to her it is an insult to call a lady a ronggeng girl.'Ronggeng' is a Javanese word for a dance and in the old days the dancers who get paid to dance with men are called 'perempuan ronggeng' .It also connotes low social status and loose moral.

Where are the ladies in PKR and UMNO, aren't they going to scream for blood or just let it be because Aminah is not from their camps or maybe she is not so good looking so it is alright for her to be insulted by this no school PKR vermin.

The ronggeng are now modernised with Bollywood influence into a very saucy and sexy dance called 'dangdut' .I understand banned in Malaysia.

Enjoy the video.