Wednesday, November 26, 2008

World War III ?

Hantu Laut

Would you believe me if I say the KLCI is headed for a fall below 800 anytime before Christmas? I am sure many of you wouldn't. Just like the price of crude oil my guts feeling is telling me it would in spite of the huge three-day rally on Wall Street.Most Asian markets rose in tandem with Wall Street.They will, likewise, fall together with it.Wall Street is the doyen and barometer of the world of equity trading.

There is absolutely no reason even for Wall Street to rear its bullish head other than on false sentiments of make-believe.There is not a drop of good news to usher a steady pattern of positive long term improvement of the markets.The only good news is the forthcoming departure of that mad man in the White House by January 2009 before he could screw up the US economy any further.The euphoria on Wall Street is a flash in the pan.More bad news will come.

No news is good news, bad news is now no news. Nothing new had come out of the US economy except troubling economic figures.The US gross domestic products contracted by 0.5% annual rate for the 3rd quarter (July-Sept).Twenty-two banks have failed so far this year and more are expected.Citibank, one of the largest in the US is in the doghouse and needed huge dose of heart worm injection to stop its demise.It was given $300 billion bail-out, giving respite to the decline on Wall Street.The three giants in Detroit, GM,Ford and Chrysler are still stuck in the muck awaiting lifelines.

American views of the economy remain the gloomiest for decades as they grapple with massive layoffs, dwindling retirement funds and slumping house prices.American consumers, the lifeblood of the economy --- spending continues to slide down.The unemployment rate is 6.5% and expected to rise.The $700 billion financial bail-outs have not been able to restore stability to the financial markets and help the sinking economy.

With a massive $7 trillion in bail-out money and a huge budget and trade deficit where the hell are the Yanks going to get the money from? Issue more Treasury Bonds, print more dollars or starts World War III?.

It can start by bombing Iran first, than North Korea, than all Muslims nations and than last China and Russia will join the war to stop the Ugly Americans.Isn't that a good recipe for a world war and an excuse not to pay your debts.

In Malaysia the government has not released any economic figures to show how much the economy had shrunk.Even if they do, I suspect it would be slightly sugar-coated to make those gullible enough to believe that our economy is fine.

Looking at all the bad news the probability of the global economy shrinking further for the rest of this year and into early next year isn't pure fantasy.

Most Asian markets rise after US extends gains

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HONG KONG, Nov 26 - Most Asian stock markets rose today after Wall Street extended its gains, but Japanese shares lagged the region as leading automaker Toyota Motor Corp. saw...

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de minimis said...


You're right in that History has shown that war is, indeed, profitable. During the Korean War in the 1950s, there was a commodities boom. The Vietnam War benefited the US manufacturing sector.

It's a scary scenario. If it was Bush transitioning to McCain, an attack on Iran may not be that remote.

What scares me is that Obama just announced that he will retain Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates for "continuity". Continue what? More Afghanistan and Iraq. Maybe Iran is still on the cards?

Remember the movie "Wag the Dog"? Create a war (albeit fictitious war in that movie) which will distract the populace and benefit the economy. Scary thought.

Ivan said...

Hi Hantu,

I do believe that the stock market will continue to rise on all the bails out. It is after all sentiment more than truth now. The market does not reflect the business of the stock.

On your note on another war, Americans are war weary. How many more American life would they need to sacrifice for pure economic gain.

One of the real reason why Bush didnt make a move on Iran is purely because they have WOMD. The destruction would be real for the Americans.

1 American life is worth so much. That was how the Vietnamese beat them. They exchange 10 if not hundreds for 1 of the American. It was a war of attrition.

Although creating a war is the easiest way out, Bush has used that option already. In fact, he used it twice. That option is now no longer available.

PSM said...


On the Malaysia "front" at least you are "wrong"!
From the many speeches of our dependable & reliable & trustworthy PM-elect, i.e. Rosmah...sorry, I'm mean Najib, Malaysia is progressing very well. Our Inflation Rate is dropping, our Economic outlook, though not as "Rosy" (nothing to do with Rosmah here) as earlier predicted, will be growing at a steady (though lower) rate.
Despite the many countries that have said they are in a Depression, due to Malaysia's wise Economic Policies & Prudent Government spending & Policies, we will be "chugging" along without any problems!

yohen said...

How many of us had gone through a real war? The closest i got was during the confrontation launched by sukarno against malaysia and during the komunis maharajalela time in the jungle of malaysia when my uncle went in search of those who had threathen Malaysia sovereignity and malaysian that leave near the jungle. Personally i had to live in a " bawah kolong" with my mother when my late father went out to patrol some areas in johor. If you cant imagine what is a bawah kolong please watch p ramlee ibu mertua ku. that is not what i want to write about.. In the past to shift attention of the general population war had been used as a distraction. US may not start another war but it could be done by her macai. They have killed sufficiently large numbers of iraqis i.e. sunni, shites either directly or indirectly by orchestrating events. Similarly they have killed sufficiently large numbers of afghans. president elect obama has commited to staying the course in afghanistan though he has commited for witdrawal in iraq..why stay the course in afghanistan? so that they can set up another muslim vs muslim i.e. pakistanis against afghans..almost daily there were missile attacks across pakistan border. They bombed syria through israel recently but it did not escalate into a war..yes dont be surprise if things get desperate for the americans they may start a war to divert attention. If bush could use WMD as a pretext to attack iraq what is there to stop them from creating another excuses for a big war game. remember they are the only nation that had used nuclear arsenal in the history of the world against japanese civilisation an excuse to stop the war..fair enough it stopped the war but at a very high cost to the japanese people. if things get real bad economically for the US, as the mad Bush and his mad team of advisors like to say..they will leave all options open on the table even if it means starting a new war..

Anonymous said...


this may be seditious. this article is too negative, readers may be inclined to believe you. so, they start to save instead of spending. worse,they start to spread the message around and more follow suit. this will cause a contraction in spending and therefore the economy. therefore, your article is deemed to be an attempt to sabotage the economy and is considered seditious.

logical? may be you check with this minister by the name of Chor who gave us the Port Klang and Pempena fiasco.