Showing posts with label Economic Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic Crisis. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

1MDB Bank Negara Approval:Are They Barking Up The Wrong Tree?

Hantu Laut

Jho Low Claimed The “PM/ FM” Gave Approval To Keep Bank Negara In The Dark On 1MDB Loan

I 'll not doubt there is something rotten down in 1MDB and the goings-on, therein, may not be known to the PM.

As I have suggested earlier forensic audit of the account be carried out to detect any fraudulent transactions, such audit should be carried out by our Auditor-General together with a reputable international auditing firm, which has in-depth knowledge of the world of international banking and finance, the reason being our AG office may not be familiar with those complicated cobwebbed financial instruments.

What I am going to say here is not in support of Jho Low, 1MDB or the PM, it's purely my personal opinion.

I suggest you guys check out BN (Bank Negara) objectives and regulations before you freak out on this highly politicised issue.

Jho Low may be right about BN approval not required as it is an offshore to offshore loan in foreign denominated currency (no ringgit involved), which in all likelihood is outside BN jurisdiction, therefore, BN approval is not necessary. It also makes sense that only MOF (Ministry of Finance) approval is required as 1MDB is wholly owned by the Malaysian government under the jurisdiction and control of Ministry of Finance, therefore, the company's BOD approval is required and MOF being the sole shareholder of 1MDB, its consent is also required.

Being an entity under MOF, who else can give approval on the matter if not the Minister of Finance, who also happened to be the Prime Minister? Don't forget by virtue of being the PM, he automatically become the de facto CEO of all state-owned companies.

Bank Negara would be more concerned if there were going to be foreign exchange involvement, or if the loan originated or domiciled in Malaysia, or if proceeds of the loan remitted back to Malaysia, where there would be greater impact on the local currency, economy and financial well being of the country if things go wrong.

1MDB would only need to inform BN and gets its approval if it raised foreign loans or issued bonds and bring back the proceeds to Malaysia. Its borrowings from domestic banks must be reported to BN, who as regulator can block or vary the huge borrowings if it's worried of undue impact on the credit and monetary system. 

As it is, the ringgit had already gone deep down south due to comprehensive politicising of the issue that have created skepticism and distrust in the Malaysian economy. Today, the ringgit is 3.69 to US$1.00 due to highly speculative and effective rumoring rather than fact-based economic indicators. Malaysia, is now rated one of the most politically unstable countries among investors and fund managers and it will get worse if no effort is taken to stabilise the very fluid political situation.

Most of the blame should fall squarely on the shoulder of PM Najib Razak as he was more concerned in keeping his popularity and hold on to power within his own party rather than to revive and strengthen the party popularity among the populace.


If they are so sure of the BN regulation, why SR (Sarawak Report) not named the source in Bank Negara who says to them such approval is required?

I think, Sarawak Report, Rafizi and the rest of the gang are barking up the wrong tree on the issue of Bank Negara's approval.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Is PM Najib In A Limbo And National Disaster In The Offing?

Hantu Laut

The United Nations defines a disaster as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society. Disasters involve widespread human, material, economic or environmental impacts, which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

Well, that's for natural disaster espoused by the UN. 


In the case of Malaysia, we have a man-made disaster in the making. We are heading for inter-racial, inter-religious conflicts, which may reach a flash point anytime now and serious economic melt-down if nothing concrete is done to salvage the worsening situation. 


When people have no confidence in government, frustration and discontent can and will disrupt peace and the economy.


It is time for him to get rid of his highly useless paid con -sultants and starts using his government servants as advisers, which should have been the case in the first place.

His 1Malaysia sale-pitch had become the butt of jokes.

He should stop wasting public funds to buy favours because it ain't working.His BRIM has more negative outflow than positive inflow.

His so-called sovereign vehicle 1MDB is going to be the biggest liability on the national economy.

Post-election support had dropped steeply amid growing calls for him to take action or make for the door and let a new leader takes over.


Is PM Najib in a limbo ?

From the Asia Sentinel:

One of Malaysia’s most respected polling organizations is expected to release figures over the next few days showing that support for the ruling Barisan Nasional from all three of the country’s major ethnic groups is dropping steeply, to the point where if an election were held today,  the national coalition would be buried in a landslide.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Is Time Running Out For Najib? Yes!

Hantu Laut

I personally think so, YES, time to leave the scene.  

Najib has failed miserably to bring about transformations as promised and his policies had gone from the subliminal to the ridiculous, the latest being RON 95 only for the poor

How do you implement and police such ludicrous idea?

I like him, but I made a mistake about this man.

From the Asia Sentinel:

Forces aligned with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad appear to be attempting push embattled Malaysian Premier Najib Tun Razak into giving a time frame for his eventual departure from office and naming a successor, sources in Kuala Lumpur say.
The sources say that successor could be hard-line Home Affairs Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, 61, who was once an ally of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim when Anwar was still in Mahathir’s government. Zahid is third in line for succession and his rise would bypass Muhyiddin Yassin, the current deputy president of UMNO and deputy prime minister, who is 66. Muhyiddin has said he will retire soon.
The scenario, the sources say, is similar to that forced upon Najib’s immediate predecessor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who was pushed to name Najib and come up with a timeline in 2008 after the Barisan’s disastrous political showing in general elections. At that time, the ruling coalition lost its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time in history. The campaign to push out Badawi lasted from the May 2008 election until April 2009, when Najib took office.
Although Mahathir left office as prime minister in 2003, he has kept up a constant barrage of criticism about the way the country has been run, quitting UMNO near the end of Badawi’s reign in supposed outrage over party politics. He reawakened with force after the 2013 general election, charging that Najib’s election strategy of reaching out to the country’s 40 percent of minority voters was a mistake.
Najib is also under growing public pressure because of rising prices due to the withdrawal of subsidies and other reasons, not least of which is dissatisfaction with the ostentatious behavior of his wife, Rosmah Mansor. He has also been widely criticized for being out of touch with the rakyat, or citizenry. He was ridiculed for saying that while some prices had gone up, the price of “kangkong [water spinach] has fallen but why don’t they praise the government?”
The drumbeat of anger over corruption in UMNO also continues, with the Mahathir forces alleging that vote-buying was used to deny Mahathir’s politician son Mukhriz Mahathir a top position in last September’s UMNO party elections.
An increasing number of Mahathir’s long-time allies, including former New Straits Times editor in chief A. Kadir Jasin and Zainuddin Maidin, the former information minister, have called for the prime minister to take the 88-year-old Mahathir back into government as a “minister mentor” akin to what Lee Kuan Yew did in Singapore from 2004 to 2011 before ostensibly retiring from politics. Former Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin, another Mahathir ally, has also made public statements disparaging Najib’s premiership.

Mukhriz on Sunday gave an interview to the Malay-language newspaper Berita Harian, saying that “Defeat [in the next general election] is a real possibility if Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak continues with his present policy of correct but unpopular decisions, especially on issues concerning the rising cost of living,"

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Times They Are A Changin: Change Or Sink Like A Stone

Hantu Laut


Read Outsyed The Box "PM Confirms Malaysia Will Go Bankrupt Under Him !!"


As they say "The road to hell is paved with good intentions" 

Good intention is meaningless unless followed through.

I am not a trained economist, a bloody accountant, or a wiz-kid of some kind, but my business sense, which I hardly use nowadays had grown sharper over the years for not being overused.

I am not against the GST as I do believe it is high time such effective tax mechanism be introduced in this country to compensate for the leakages through cheating and tax manipulation. However, such exercise would be futile and of no use if the government continued with its extravagant and corrupt ways. 

Show me a wise government that foolishly spent RM7.2 billion in consulting fees, has 1.4 million civil servants, almost half doing next to nothing and spending over 80% of its recurring budget for operating expenditure leaving less than 20% for development expenditure. 

No where in the world you can find such caring government.....where there is 1 civil servant for every 20 people.

In the 2014 Budget of RM264.2 billion, a sum of RM217.7 goes to operating expenditure and RM46 billion for development expenditure, a meagre sum by comparison. Malaysians have been had, we give our money to people who had no money sense.

This government is spending beyond its means, good money chasing bad money, indiscriminate and unconscionable spending that's going to bankrupt the country.

Najib's 1MDB is full of big talking men in dark suits that's going to screw the country big time   They proudly say that many of their bonds are not backed by government guarantees, but these bunch of shitheads forget that 1MDB is wholly owned by the Malaysian government and if 1MDB goes down the Malaysian government goes down with it and Malaysia's credit rating goes down the sewer and no one would want to touch Malaysia with a ten-foot pole.


Tuesday, August 20, 2013

BN On Death Throes ?

Hantu Laut

Haven't posted anything this past week, things haven't changed and getting sick of defending the indefensible.

I once was an ardent supporter of Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak's 1Malaysia, him trying to unite the different races in the country and trusting him as the man who could bring viable changes to a system that is insidiously killing the country, politically and economically.

It looks like we are becoming more rudderless than before. Like his predecessor he has fallen victim to UMNO greedy warlords and think that everything will be hunky-dory to continue the status quo. I scratch your back, you scratch my back in typical UMNO style.

Adding to his woes is a home minister who has a penchant for saying the quirkiest things and doing things "thick as two planks". Seriously, besides his two planks act this "Yang Berhormat" also needs to seek anger management therapy. Him getting physical against a man who claimed he was physically abused by him was recorded in a law suit against him. Angry man do not make wise decision and unwise decisions aplenty, the latest being stripping a poor Singaporean businessman off his permanent resident status. Though, I agree the government has the prerogative to cancel his PR, a bit of leniency and compassion over heedless and unintentional mistake sould suffice with a slap on the wrist. 

To err is human, to forgive divine. 

I am not even sure if there was a breach of divine law here, or just the angst of a small fraction of Muslims.

Mecca, before the dawn of Islam was full of idols particularly the Kaaba, used as a place of worship for the deities of Arabia's pagan tribes. When Islam took over Mecca they demolished the idols but not the buildings. The Kaaba now stands as the holiest shrine of Islam.

From the quirkiest to the smuggest, a minister of tourism who broke all conventions and claimed he was right to appoint his son as his special officer in his ministry and the conviction of righteousness came in the form of salary paid from his own pocket.A bumptious and opinionated ass who forgets the ministry is  not his personal fiefdom, but property of the people. It's fine if it was his "SDN BHD" He can do what he likes! Nobody cares!

If the quirkiest and the smuggest not enough to piss you off, try the scummiest of excuses, using religion in furtherance of racial domination. When the empire strikes back protecting the sanctity of Islam, more often than not, it's for racial consumption rather than religion.

PAS, whom I thought was the real fundamentalist looked more and more coy and innocuous. PAS leaders must be watching the show from the sidelines with their tongues hanging out in disbelief.

Bak kut teh, dogs, surau and improvised temple add more fun to a growing list of DOs and DON'Ts against Islam, an official religion but not constituted law of the country.

Any Muslim slighted over the slightest slight can lodge a police report and you are in a deep shit. The police will react faster than the bullets they used to shoot down criminals, because it is easier to find you and harder to find criminals.

The reason crimes on the rise, the police can't find the criminals, they outsmarted the police.

The EO (Emergency Ordinance) and ISA (Internal Security Act) had been blamed for the rise in violent crimes. The Home Minister claimed there were over 2000 hardcore criminals released when the EO was repealed and over 200,000 criminal foot soldiers are now working for these crime chiefs. 

New York City is a huge city compared to KL and had no EO or ISA, how come Mayor Rudy Giuliani succeeded in bringing down organised crimes in the city? Triad infested Hong Kong had no EO or ISA, how come they can clean up the city of big crimes making it one of the safest cities in the world today. Singapore, another gangster infested city before is now almost crime free and another one of the safest city in the world. 

How come our Home Minister is more interest in protecting the police than looking at the problems with an open mind and finding real solutions?

As they say "if there is a will, there is a way"

Someone asked me the other day "with is wrong with Islam today"? 

It is not Islam the problem. Muslims are root of the problems. Muslims are the trouble with what happened to Islam today. Muslims have become easily humiliated, use religion as a tool to retaliate and have become arrogant and self-destructive.

The current government is heading the same way, its arrogance will lead to.......self-destruction!

They do everything to agonise, antagonise and caused people's antipathy toward them.

The have lost the popular vote, completely lost the Chinese supports and lost the urban Malay votes.They have only one more thing to lose....the next general elections, as sure as the sunrise, if Najib keep dragging his foot on his transformation policy.

As proven in the past two general elections without Sabah and Sarawak the rural Malay vote bank in West Malaysia is insufficient to keep them in power. I expect the KDM in Sabah and Dayaks in Sarawak to abandon the BN in the 14th GE. They may also lose significant number of UMNO seats in Sabah.

As I have said before and still bear the same opinion, BN will lose in the 14th General Elections, unless some sort of miracle happened.

It better be soon!

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Malaysia Trade: Foreign Investors Don't Like What They See



Hantu Laut

With Fitch's downgrade of Malaysia's sovereign credit outlook to negative, Malaysia will suffer more capital outlaw in coming months as foreign investors continue to dump Malaysian government bonds and liquidate equity stocks. The ringgit will slide down further against major currencies.

Foreign investors are jittery of the expected Malaysia's economic downturn, an uprise that depend much on Najib's transformation policy that ain't coming. 

I expect the economy to perform worse than the figure adjusted downward by the World Bank. I expect a worse scene scenario of less than 5 % of GDP growth for 2013.


Three days ago I bought physical US$ at US$1.00 to RM3.22. The lowest against the dollar in three years. In May this year it was RM2.96 to US$1.00.


The racial tension prevailing in the country is a cause for great concern and could get out of hand if both sides of the ethnic divide do not come to their senses.

DAP had thrown down the gauntlet on the ROS and I expect ROS will rise to the challenge with a well-deserved de-registration of the party. I say well-deserved because it is what the DAP wanted, a devious ploy to show the Chinese community that the government is taking revenge on the community for their wholesale support of the party in the 13th GE. 

DAP leaders, particularly the Lims, want the Chinese community to continue to be angry with the government so as to sustain the supports for DAP until the 14th GE, where DAP expect to gain more grounds if the momentum is kept alive.

DAP leaders knew by not acceding to ROS demand to hold fresh elections, which they should have, because the complaints came from party members who felt they have been cheated, the next action would be de-registration of the party by ROS. 

Both sides are testing each other's resolve.

There were rumours, true or not, that certain DAP leaders want a merger with PKR, which if materialised will make them very formidable. Out of PKR's 30 MP seats, only 14 or thereabout are held by Malays.

Fortunately for BN, Anwar Ibrahim will not allow it, not in a million years.


Najib's transformation seemed to be on delayed mode. His government spend more time on pettifogging and listening to leaders bankrupt of constructive ideas.


From the WSJ:


Malaysia’s exports continued to weaken Monday, another worrying sign for an economy facing increased investor scrutiny.

Monday, May 28, 2012

A CURE-ALL GOVERNMENT: IS ANWAR A SNAKE OIL SALESMAN ?

Hantu Laut


Snake oil:   A product that has been proven to not live up to the vendor's marketing hype.Elixirs and potions of all kinds, even ones that supposedly included the oils from snakes, were sold as a cure for everything that ailed a person.


Remember the Wild West, travelling huckster selling snake oil that can cure everything from blindness to any ailment under the sun, big or small. 


In Sabah, we also have our version of snake oil salesman travelling for one tamu ground to another in our small towns. Their concoction also promised to cure everything from erectile dysfunction to every imaginable illnesses that you can think of, including the many incurable cancers.

It's what I called selling hopes.


In our national politics, one man stands out as the greatest 'snake oil' salesman, selling hopes to the people so that he can become the prime minister of this country.The heaps of cure-all promises he made can make the real culprit gaping in awe. His name is Anwar Ibrahim.


Prince Charles was once branded as a 'snake oil' salesman for his support of homeopathic remedies.Homeophatic and chiropractic spine manipulation are potentially dangerous treatment according to some medical experts.


Let's list some, if not all, of Anwar's promises to make Malaysians reach greater height or suffer a greater malady at his hands.


He said that a political change was badly needed to free the country from corruption, poverty, racism, discrimination and exploitation.That I have no doubt we all must do.


If that come from someone who has not been in government, who has not shared the evils that he mentioned, who is fresh and had no sin of commission I would support him wholeheartedly.


He said if Pakatan were to take Putrajaya, the petrol price would go down the very next day and the toll charges for the North-South Expressway would be abolished.


How many billions in subsidies and compensation would the Malaysian taxpayers have to fork out ? The government must compensate the concessionaires for the losses they may incur. Unless, Anwar can turn this country into absolute socialism or communism and nationalised all the privatised highways, there is no way he can avoid paying compensations.


Anwar  also promised he would increase for Sabah and other oil producing states oil royalty from 5% to 20%. 


Would he be taking from the left pocket to pay the right pocket and reduce the federal allocation of development expenditure to the oil producing states? The states would be back to square one, it would be a short-lived happiness, as they later found out they have been short-changed. 


Anwar also promised to abolish the PTPTN and write-off loans already given out.


Again, one should look at this as another one of his 'playing to the gallery' promise that would deprive less fortunate students to further their studies, if the government don't make tertiary education absolutely free for all students, rich or poor.Do we have the resources to make all tertiary education free?


Can the government afford such tremendous strain on its budget?


Anwar, also promised to trim the national budget, cut budget deficit and bring down the per capita debt?


So, fellow Malaysians, tell me, just a few of those promises he made, how do you reconcile with the last one, the trimming of the national budget. 


On one hand he was lavishly generous and on the other hand he promised prudence in his spending, cutting it to the bare minimum. 


You don't have to be a genius to figure out how horrendous our "balance sheet" would be if all those promises were implemented. 


His mathematics does not add up !

The nation would end having no money for developments.


Don't you think ANWAR is the super-duper SNAKE OIL 
SALESMAN ?

Monday, April 16, 2012

Beware Of The Dotcom Bubble.


A billion reasons to beware of the latest dotcom bubble

What exactly has Facebook bought with its $1bn purchase of Instagram? Recent internet history suggests it may be a huge haul of overpriced pixels…

Grid of photos showing different filter effects enabled by Instagram.
A grid of photos showing different filter effects enabled by Instagram. Photograph: Picasa

So Facebook has bought Instagram, a company with a single product – a photosharing app – for $1bn in cash and (FB) shares. Just to put that in context, Instagram has been in existence for 18 months, employs 13 people, has 30 million users and has had a grand total of $7m in investment funding. Oh, and it has precisely zero dollars in revenue.

Sound familiar? YouTube was founded in February 2005 as an angel-funded enterprise. In November 2005 Sequoia Capital invested $3.5m, and in April 2006 Sequoia and Artis Capital Management put an additional $8m into the company, making $11.5m in all. Then, in October 2006, YouTube was purchased by Google for $1.65bn.

Or how about this? In 1996 a group of Israeli engineers founded Mirabilis, a company that developed the ICQ messaging technology.AOL bought Mirabilis in 1998 for $407m, which then was a lot of money. In 2010 AOL sold ICQ to Digital Sky Technologies for $187.5m.

Or this? Skype was founded in 2003 by Janus Friis and Niklas Zennström. It grew rapidly because it offered free VoIP (voice overinternet protocol) but was slow to earn revenues by selling "Skype-out" facilities, which enabled subscribers to make calls to conventional telephones. In October 2005 eBay purchased Skype for a sum variously estimated at between $2.6bn and $3.1bn. Two years later eBay took a $1.4bn impairment on the value of Skype, revaluing the company at $2.7bn. In May 2011 Microsoft acquired Skype for $8.5bn. At the time this was Microsoft's largest ever acquisition.

And then there's MySpace, also founded in 2003 and acquired byRupert Murdoch's News Corporation in July 2005 for $580m – a purchase lauded by some eminent commentators at the time as the wily Digger's latest masterstroke. Myspace was flogged off last June to an outfit called Specific Media for $35m. Some masterstroke!

What is the moral of these stories? Answer: that internet valuations are like the Bible's description of the peace of God: they "passeth all understanding". There's no rational way of valuing companies like these. That doesn't mean, of course, that armies of high-priced accountants, consultants and lawyers toting massive Excel sheets and market "research" didn't provide wodges of impressive documentation rationalising whatever number senior executives had plucked out of the ether. But, in general, there's no way of knowing in advance whether any of these purchases will turn out to be masterstrokes or follies.

At the moment it looks as though YouTube was the only really shrewd acquisition in the sense that one can at least envisage a way that it might eventually turn into a serious money-pump for Google. ICQ was a disastrous mistake for AOL, as was MySpace for Murdoch. And it's hard to see how Microsoft will ever get its money back from Skype.Read more.


Monday, December 12, 2011

British PM Cameron's Fiasco


Nick Clegg promised to rebuild the government's shattered relationship with the rest of Europe and risked opening a coalition rift by going public with his "bitter disappointment" at David Cameron's decision to block a new EU agreement.

The deputy prime minister said Britain risked becoming "isolated and marginalised" from the European mainstream and, along with seniorLiberal Democrats, spent the weekend contacting European leaders in a "strategy for re-engagement to recover lost ground", according to a senior government source.

Several high-profile figures, including the former leader Paddy Ashdownand the party president, Tim Farron, joined Clegg in a wide-ranging attack on Cameron's resort to a British veto.

Clegg will hold a meeting with business leaders this week to convince them "they had not completely had the door shut", according to an aide. There is growing concern that the 26 EU countries who agreed on greater fiscal integration last week will now be able to strike deals affecting British banks and businesses.

The business secretary, Vince Cable, who warned the prime minister in Cabinet last Monday against the strategy he went on to follow in Brussels, is concerned that global companies including banks and pension funds will now shun investments in the UK, having previously favoured it as a "gateway" to the continent.

Clegg was biting in his critique of developments in Brussels but spoke of correcting the path chosen by Cameron by getting "back into the saddle". "I'm bitterly disappointed by the outcome of last week's summit, precisely because I think now there is a danger that the UK will be isolated and marginalised within the European Union," he told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show.Read more.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Save The Euro But Not The EU



Dec. 9 is bittersweet for Europe: at a summit in Brussels, its leaders struck a deal that might save its beleaguered currency, euro — but at the expense of the European Union itself.

The deal could mark a turning point in the raging euro crisis if it convinces jittery markets that, by way of strict budget rules, member countries can claw their way out of debt woes. It is potentially historic, taking the continent deep into fiscal integration and union as the member states concede sovereignty on taxation and spending to a central authority.

The problem is the E.U. isn't heading into this adventure as one. Ten hours of tense talks failed to persuade U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron to sign up to the pact, and so the other 26 member states agreed to forge ahead on without Britain. Cameron argued that the planned deal would threaten key British interests, including its financial markets and the preeminence of the City of London as Europe's financial capital. And so he vetoed an amendment of the full Union treaty. Hence, the others had to take a different route to an agreement: the intergovernmental agreement they will hammer out by March will be written outside the E.U.'s legal framework.(See "Euro Treaty Takes Shape, But Without Britain.")



Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2102019,00.html#ixzz1gCniEfQ7

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Pakatan's Economic Crock Of Shit

Hantu Laut

Is Malaysia going bankrupt?

Malaysia foreign debt is still at comfortable level.

Malaysia is not yet on the verge of bankruptcy as alleged by Anwar and the oppositions.We are not in danger of defaulting on our debts. Nonetheless, we must take precautionary measures not to increase our foreign debt any further.

Anwar and the oppositions should give fact and figures to support their claims, not simply saying that the country is going bankrupt without any supporting evidence with bad intention to mislead the people.

Malaysia's macroeconomics is still looking fairly healthy in spite of all the lies and bullshits coming from the oppositions?

Macroeconomics are key indicators of economic performance.

Economic output, unemployment, inflation, saving and investment are factors that we should look at in order to determine the health of a nation and with it comes other monitoring mechanisms (debt to GDP ratio, budget deficit/surplus,etc).These are closely monitored by government and the business sector.Only if essential parts of the fundamentals have gone wrong would the country be in deep trouble.

The financial health of a nation is no different from that of a company and debt is a matter of perspective.Just like a company that borrow to expand its business if a nation borrow to build its infrastructure that will pay off in the future than borrowing a lot isn't necessary bad.If the country borrows for recurring expenditure and to fill the hole in the pocket than that would surely be recipe for disaster.Malaysia certainly has some leakages, mostly through corruptions, but they are still manageable.

Greece, is an example, an epigram of Murphy's Law, everything has gone wrong, declining economy and overspending........(2010 figures)) GDP -4.5%,..... budget deficit 10.5%,.... debt to GDP ratio 143%,..... unemployment 12.5% .....and inflation 4.7%.The situation had become worse in 2011, triggering panic in the eurozone countries.Four other members of the eurozone namely, Italy,Spain,Portugal and Ireland are also in dire straits.Italy, is the next victim of fiscal crisis and with much bigger debt than Greece.

The PIGS as they are known are not even big spenders in Europe, the honour should go to Denmark,France and Sweden where government spending is about 52% of GDP.

Malaysia was not even in the top 20 most indebted country by GDP.In term of public debt Singapore stood at No.9 with 105.8% of GDP which means Singapore borrowed as much as its GDP.

CIA Factbook's Public Debt % 0f GDP 2009/2010:

1. Zimbabwe 234.10%
2. Japan 197.50%
3. Saint Kitts and Nevis 185.00%
4. Greece 142.80%
5. Lebanon 133.80%
6. Jamaica 126.50%
7. Iceland 126.10%
8. Italy 119.10%
9. Singapore 105.80%
10. Barbados 102.10%

Why is Singapore still a very prosperous nation and one of the leading and healthiest economies in Asia?

When it comes to the list below Singapore has completely disappeared from the scene.

CIA Factbook's External Debt 2009-2010:

1. United States $13,980 billion
2. European Union $13,720 billion
3. United Kingdom $8,981 billion
4. Germany $4,713 billion
5. France $4,698 billion
6. Japan $2,441 billion
7. Ireland $2,253 billion
8. Norway $2,232 billion
9. Italy $2,223 billion
10. Spain $2,166 billion

There are many different ways to measure debt as a factor in a nation's economic health.

Public debt is the total of domestic and external debts. Singapore's public debt is 105.8% of GDP but most of it is in domestic market and less than 10% external debt.Singapore also has very impressive sovereign funds invested in both domestic and foreign markets.Its per capita of $62,100 is one of the highest in the world, higher than the US, purportedly the richest country in the world.Singapore's sovereign fund, one of the largest in the world, and her reserve gave her contingency against prolonged recession.

Last year Singapore overtook Malaysia's GDP.It can only mean Singaporeans are much more productive than Malaysians. An amazing feat for a nation with small population, small land mass and zero natural resources.

In 2010, Singapore GDP grew by 14.5%, Taiwan 10.8% and China 10.3%.Maybe, it has something to do with being Chinese.

Malaysians spent more time politicking and "omong-omong kosong". You can see it everywhere, both in the public and private sector. Go to any government office or department store in KL and you will not fail to see the staffs chatting among themselves instead of attending to costumers.The biggest predators of Malaysia's budget are Malaysians themselves, the inextricable subsidy mentality, which they now see as of right rather than a privilege.It is the subsidies that will bankrupt the country.

Malaysians themselves are equally to be blamed for their poor attitude toward work.Politicians can make policies but they can't police every sectors of the economy, and of course bad policies, which Malaysia is not short of too, would also have dire consequence on the economy.

Japan, another big borrower with debt almost touching 200% of GDP should have folded, but did not.Less than 50% of its debt is external, the rest is held domestically.Japan has a number of years of negative growth and only in 2010 she managed a growth of 3.9% .Yet Japan can repay its debt.

The big risk of having huge foreign debt is the volatility of currency exchange which can increase the debt if the borrower's currency weakened but can also augers well if the borrower's currency gained strength against the borrowed currency.

So borrowing more is not necessary bad if you have healthy economic growth, good fiscal policy and sustainable budget deficit.

Malaysia's GDP growth in 2010 was 7.2%, the debt to GDP was 52.4% out of which about 35% was external debt, the budget deficit was 5.6% of GDP and the debt per capita $2,570 (external).The deficit and public debt have increased in 2011 and expected to increase further in 2012.










As long as the government can maintain the acceptable debt to GDP ratio and sustainable deficit, which I think they probably could, Anwar and Pakatan's economic warmongering is nothing but a crock of shit.


Monday, October 31, 2011

Is The West Going Bankrupt ?

Hantu Laut

Be it an individual, a corporation or a nation, the consequence of over spending and over borrowing could be fatal.Many Western nations are now in deep financial trouble due to over spending.

Being highly geared is risky business.Many eurozone nations have debt to GDP ratio of over 100%, some as high as 400%.

Greece, the first victim of financial gluttony is having problems meeting its debt repayments. The financial debacle sent shock waves to members of the eurozone and financial institutions, which may have to give huge write downs and moratorium on repayments to keep the country afloat.The rescue plan announced in May by IMF and the European Union have not had its desired effect.The 110 billion euros rescue package came with expressed conditions of Greece cutting its public spending and boosting tax revenue.Plan to cut spending was met with violent street protests by unemployed youths.

Greece external debt is now at 182 % of GDP.Every man,woman and child in Greece now owed the rest of the world $53,984.per capita. Greece's trouble is not so much the debt to GDP ratio but more due to a stagnated economy, negative growth, living beyond its means (budget deficit) and rising debt level.In 2010 Greece showed a negative growth of - 4.5 %.Rising unemployment had contributed to violent and deadly street protests.

There is much talk that Greece's economic debacle would bring the demise of the euro currency club.Many US investment funds have taken flights pulling their money out of the eurozone to safer havens.S&P has downgraded Greece's debts to junk status.

Greece, is just tip of the iceberg, many European countries are in for much bigger trouble should they not able to service their debts.

Countries in the economic doldrums that may need lifeboats are Portugal,Spain,Ireland and Italy with Ireland faring the worst with current debt of 1382% 0f GDP.

In term of GDP the UK is at No.2 of the most indebted nation in the world, a whopping 413% of GDP and its every citizen owing the rest of the world $146,953 per capita.The country that wears the top hat for indebtedness is Ireland with a whopping per capita debt of $566,756.

With the exception of Japan, all 20 top debtors of the world are the highly industrialised countries in North America and Western Europe.

Surprisingly, the world's biggest debtor in term of value came out looking much healthier than most European countries.The US stood at No.20 for indebtedness and 101% of GDP and per capita debt of $48,258.It has raised its debt ceiling to borrow more money and its continuing deficit and slow growth rate would eventually render it a sick bill of health.If the US goes under the rest of the world goes with it.China and Japan hold $1.7 trillion of US debts.

It is not possible to foresee the next financial crisis, where it will originate from and how severe the impact on the world's economy.With available data, the low growth and highly geared Western economies appear to be likely candidates triggering the next financial crisis, probably bigger than the 2008 financial meltdown with some countries in the West going bankrupt.

The West have been living beyond its means for far too long at the expense of the poorer East.It's about time they trim their waistline.



Thursday, January 13, 2011

When Roubini Talks You Better Listen

Hantu Laut

When Roubini talks you better listen.This the same man who presciently predicted the US sub-prime crisis three years before it happened.

Many of us know that Malaysia's GDP is on the decline and we are becoming less competitive over the years plagued by inherent poor fiscal policies, a non-evolving labour force and the over-zealous NEP that put wealth into the hands of selected and politically well connected individuals.

If the Malays want the country to progress than they need to help the Prime Minister by supporting his policies and lessen the rent seeking anomaly that have put a brake on the economic growth of the nation or face the perils of this nation falling on the wayside.

Nouriel Robini is a star economist and highly respected.

We have already been overtaken in our economic activities by Singapore, our southerly neighbour, a tiny dot with only 5 million people and no natural resources.

Shouldn't we be ashamed of ourselves that we can lose out to countries like Singapore and Hong Kong whose only resources are its human capital which we seems to be very lacking in performance henceforth the lackluster economic performance. Other than the bad fiscal policies in plain language we are lazier than our contemporaries in the region.

In term of population with Singapore that's 5 million against 26 million. Obviously, there is something very wrong with us and if the government do not arrest this most embarrassing situation soon we would surely be moving into stagnated growth and eventual economic disaster.

Read Roubini's take on Malaysia and on the future of the Euro.