Malaysia Trade: Foreign Investors Don't Like What They See

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With Fitch's downgrade of Malaysia's sovereign credit outlook to negative, Malaysia will suffer more capital outlaw in coming months as foreign investors continue to dump Malaysian government bonds and liquidate equity stocks. The ringgit will slide down further against major currencies.

Foreign investors are jittery of the expected Malaysia's economic downturn, an uprise that depend much on Najib's transformation policy that ain't coming. 

I expect the economy to perform worse than the figure adjusted downward by the World Bank. I expect a worse scene scenario of less than 5 % of GDP growth for 2013.


Three days ago I bought physical US$ at US$1.00 to RM3.22. The lowest against the dollar in three years. In May this year it was RM2.96 to US$1.00.

The racial tension prevailing in the country is a cause for great concern and could get out of hand if both sides of the ethnic divide do not come to their senses.

DAP had thrown down the gauntlet on the ROS and I expect ROS will rise to the challenge with a well-deserved de-registration of the party. I say well-deserved because it is what the DAP wanted, a devious ploy to show the Chinese community that the government is taking revenge on the community for their wholesale support of the party in the 13th GE. 

DAP leaders, particularly the Lims, want the Chinese community to continue to be angry with the government so as to sustain the supports for DAP until the 14th GE, where DAP expect to gain more grounds if the momentum is kept alive.

DAP leaders knew by not acceding to ROS demand to hold fresh elections, which they should have, because the complaints came from party members who felt they have been cheated, the next action would be de-registration of the party by ROS. 

Both sides are testing each other's resolve.

There were rumours, true or not, that certain DAP leaders want a merger with PKR, which if materialised will make them very formidable. Out of PKR's 30 MP seats, only 14 or thereabout are held by Malays.

Fortunately for BN, Anwar Ibrahim will not allow it, not in a million years.


Najib's transformation seemed to be on delayed mode. His government spend more time on pettifogging and listening to leaders bankrupt of constructive ideas.


From the WSJ:

Malaysia’s exports continued to weaken Monday, another worrying sign for an economy facing increased investor scrutiny.

Read more.

Who Is Malaysian First In Good Deeds?

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Is the BN in a scurry or would there be a tectonic shift in Hulu Selangor?

Tengku Razaleigh predicted grave portent for BN in Hulu Selangor and bad omen. He said majority of Malays wouldn't vote for BN candidate.

In wide contrast to Razaleigh's prophecy other political pundits including Malaysian Insider which had never had kind words for Najib, have taken different view of the probable outcome of the Hulu Selangor by-election.The groundswell seems to be shifting in favour of the BN, at least among Malays and Indians.

By rights, the BN candidate for Hulu Selangor should be a Malay. The fielding of an Indian candidate should be seen as a sacrifice by UMNO, in spite of it being a Malay majority area.PKR, more likely, would field a Malay candidate.

Lim Kit Siang should put his money where his mouth is.Who is Malaysian first in deeds and who is Malaysian first in lip service.He can only talk and ridicule 1 Malaysia. What has he done? He has done more to divide the races and heightened racial sentiments.At least, Najib practises what he preaches.

Malays formed over 50% of voters in the area while Indians comprises less than 20%.The Chinese votes at 26% will be comfortably Pakatan's main trust of support.

The constituents are fed up with all talk and no action.

Also read:The other side of Najib

Najib Stalls on his New Economic Policy

By whose count? The NEM hasn't started yet, how could it stalled?

ASIA SENTINEL

Written by Our Correspondent

Thursday, 01 April 2010

As expected, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak unveiled his New Economic Model in an 8,000 word speech on March 30 to a national investor conference in Kuala Lumpur. And, as expected, despite the hype and favorable news stories in the international press, it contained virtually nothing of substance. The speech can be found here.

Najib remains caught between the need to eliminate costly subsidies enshrined in 40 years of economic policy that benefit ethnic Malays and the fact that eliminating them would alienate a major part of his United Malays Political Organization political base.

His pledge in the speech to eliminate rent-seeking is fraught with political danger, since UMNO has largely been built on party cadres who have made fortunes on government contracts or other arrangements. As Lim Kit Siang, the leader of the opposition Democratic Action Party, pointed out to Asia Sentinel, Najib's promise to end rent-seeking was almost an exact echo of speeches by his predecessor, former Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who was unable to make any progress whatsoever in the face of implacable opposition from UMNO cronies.

The premier has been trying to walk the line between economic liberalization and enraging his base virtually since he took office a year ago, offering to unveil policies and then delaying. The details now have been delayed until the release of the 10th Malaysia plan, probably in June. Some, including veteran UMNO politician-turned-reformer Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, whose speech appeared on March 24 in Asia Sentinel, have questioned whether it is possible to split the difference.

Last year, Najib quickly stoked ethnic Malay anger by removing a long-standing requirement mandating ethnic Malay participation in 27 economic sub-sectors as well as removing a requirement that 30 percent of shares in IPOs go to ethnic Malays. That,along with rising irritation in other ethnic parties, led to rallies across the country put on by the Malay Consultative Council, an umbrella group of 50 ethnic Malay non-government organizations, and its most active voice, an NGO called Perkasa.

While there has been no open break between Najib and the splenetic former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, Mahathir has appeared several times at rallies to defend so-called ketuanan Melayu, or Malay superiority. Some of the rallies have turned into near riots and have been likened to the Tea Party rallies in the United States that have roiled American politics. Mahathir is also close to Ibrahim Ali, a former UMNO wheel-horse who is a major force in Perkasa, leading some to believe Ibrahim is Mahathir's spear-carrier.
As Asia Sentinel reported on March 8, the widening gap between what Najib wants to do and what a major portion of his United Malays National Organization constituency wants is putting in jeopardy his so-called RM20 million 1Malaysia campaign, designed to bring the country's alienated and fractious ethnic groups together, and torebuild the Barisan Nasional, the ruling national coalition of ethnic political parties.

In his speech, Najib said the country could no longer rely on a few sectors like oil palm plantations and crude oil sales to drive growth. He called for the country to diversify and provide incentives in new strategic industries. The education system – which critics say now gives ethnic Malays virtually blanket passes with little academic rigor -- must be revaluated and improved, he said, to reward excellence and nurture talented graduates who excel in strategic and creative thinking, and entrepreneurial and leadership skills that will drive success in the decades ahead.

On Tuesday, the Malaysian Insider, an increasingly influential website, reported that the Malay Consultative Council is split over Najib's plans, with the council taking an unofficial stand to support them on condition that affirmative action features contained in the New Economic Policy, put in place after bloody ethnic riots in 1969, remain in place. Given that Najib's economic plans would remove many of those perks, it remains to be seen how he can convince the rank and file of their value.

Najib does have an improving economy working in his behalf. As he told the Invest Malaysia conference Monday, fourth-quarter 2009 Gross domestic product grew by a higher-than-expected 4.5 percent, that exports have rebounded, and foreign direct investment is picking up. The Industrial Production Index, he said, rebounded to 12.7 percent growth in January with exports, which traditionally have comprised more than 100 percent of GDP, exports rose 37 percent to RM52 billion and imports increased by 31 percent to RM40 billion. His decision last year to inject RM67 billion of stimulus funding provided a much-needed boost to the economy.

The government, he said, "can no longer tolerate practices that support the behavior of rent-seeking and patronage, which have long tarnished the altruistic aims of the New Economic Policy. Inclusiveness, where all Malaysians contribute and benefit from economic growth - must be a fundamental element of any new economic approach."

However, there is no better example of how closely tied to Najib's own coat-tails are to rent-seekng than a contract to provide services and coordination for two Amaris submarines purchased for US$1 billion from DCNS, a French defense contractor, when Najib was defense minister. Najib and one of his closest friends, Abdul Razak Baginda, were intimately involved with the purchase of the submarines. Although many critics characterized the €114.96 million payment to a company called Perimekar, partly owned by Razak Baginda, as a bribe, Malaysia's defense ministry defended it in Parliament as a support services contract.
Perimekar was partly owned by the Armed Forces Superannuation Fund Board (the military retirement fund), Boustead Holdings Bhd, and KS Ombak Laut Sdn Bhd. Ombak Laut was in turn owned by Razak Baginda, who was tried for the murder of Mongolian translator Altantuya Shaariibuu and found not guilty in a controversial trial that saw two of Najib's own bodyguards convicted of the crime. Altantuya had served as a translator in France on part of the submarine transaction and was demanding US$500,000 from Razak, her former lover in what she herself called blackmail in a letter found after her death.

Yet there is another service contract as well. The submarines became controversial again in February when it was reported that the first one to be delivered had problems with its ballast system and couldn't submerge. Although that turned out to be a relatively minor problem, it brought to light questions over an additional service agreement between the government and a well-connected firm called Boustead DCNS, a joint venture between BHIC Defence Technologies Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of publicly-listed Boustead Heavy Industries Corp Bhd, and the France-based DCNS SA, which built the subs. Originally Boustead told the Malaysian Stock Exchange that the service contract was for RM600 million (US$184.1 million) for six years, or US$30.68 million annually. However, the contract later ballooned to RM270 million per year. Boustead Holdings is partly owned by the government and has close connections with UMNO.Read more.

The PM Must Cast His Net Wider

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Although, I think the Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak has the prerogative to appoint whom he is comfortable with to the Petronas Board, his choice of candidate may not be suitable this time.

Omar Mustapha may be smart in his own right but for someone who had reneged on his contractual obligations with the company before it is quite right that Petronas Board resisted his appointment.The PM should have checked this fact before he even contemplates this move.It is also a good sign that independence and good governance prevail in the company and the PM should not push his agenda to upset the management of Petronas which until today were free of any scandal.Even Abdullah during his time did not upset the status quo in Petronas probably due to the presence of Tun Mahathir there.

The job is better off given to reputable retired top civil servant, technocrats and top-notch executive from the private sector.

Najib should cast his net wider to fish for the right person based more on qualifications,trust and confidence rather than personal relation.

Petronas: If It Ain't Broken, Don't Fix It

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Rumours abound that there will be changes at the top management of Petronas.Tun Dr Mahathir, adviser to Petronas when asked said he has heard so but have no idea who the person is that supposedly will replace Hassan Merican as chairman of Petronas.

News from the grapevine says Syed Hamid Albar is one such possible candidate.Is there a need to make changes when the present man had proven his capabilities and Petronas is probably the best run GLC in the whole country, free of scandal, and for a company coming from a third world is highly respected internationally.

In 2007 Financial Times identified Petronas as one of the 'new seven sisters'.These are accreditation given to the most influential and mainly state-owned national oil and gas companies from countries outside the OECD.Petronas is also on the Fortune 500 list of companies.

There is nothing wrong with Petronas.Nothing is broken.Putting a full-time politician at the top would be inviting disaster.There would be many creepy crawlies waiting at his door to enchant him and tempt him.

Before you do anything silly just think of Pertamina.

How politicians and businessmen run the company into the ground with mounting debts they were unable to pay. At each stage of the transaction chain somebody was getting a cut.The Indonesian government have to bail out the company. The bail-out doubled Indonesia's foreign debt overnight.The culprit Ibnu Sutowo, probably the most corrupted man on the face of this earth at that time was never punished and his family is now one of the richest in Indonesia.

If it ain't broken, don't fix it.

Fairus Pakatan's Sacrifical Lamb ?

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Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak was right when he said there was no need for a by-election for the Penanti state seat. Less than a year after the last general elections the nation had seen 5 by-elections.All won by Pakatan except Batang Ai in Sarawak. Maybe, Sabahans and Sarawakians were better campaigners than their counterparts in the Peninsula.

It is not the money spent on these by-elections that matters.It is the diversion that Anwar planned to eventually break down the BN as they will spend more time defending themselves rather than governing the nation.

The resignation of Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin was forced by Anwar Ibrahim to further his psychological war against the BN. Fairus has not been charged for corruption yet Anwar sees it fits to force him to resign.The statute 'that one is innocent until proven guilty' is not in his lexicon because he has other more important political agenda. Fairus was the ultimate sacrificial lamb. Was the letter of resignation signed recently or was it signed before the March 2008 General Elections?

To maintain his popularity with the people Anwar needs to call for by-election every now and than to remind the people that Pakatan Rakyat is a force to be reckoned with and to re-assure himself that the people are still supporting him and PR. His alter ego necessitates him to take this course of action to keep the momentum of Pakatan popularity going and the road to Putrajaya on track.It is also his ways of keeping the coalition cohesive and intact until the next general elections.

Was it a question of integrity or mere hyperbolic rhetoric to capture the imagination of his supporters that PKR and Pakatan are the people's choice of a clean government? Was Anwar squeaky clean when he was in UMNO ? A question not many of PR supporters would want to know or care about. To them Anwar is infallible and of unquestionable integrity and all of BN leaders are corrupted and rotten to the core.A browse through Malaysian blogosphere would show how impressively loyal, to a fault, the majority of Pakatan supporters were to the Anwar's cause.A gullible lot may not be a far off remark and Pakatan will continue to win by-elections in Pakatan stronghold and denigrate the BN to the gutter by the support of this maddening lot.

Cleaning up the mess will not be easy for Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak unless he has some magic formula.

For a start, as envisaged by Najib, the BN should not contest the Penanti by-election or for that matter any by-election that came from Pakatan stronghold.It should only concentrate to defend those that came from its own constituency.The loss of Kuala Trengganu should not be repeated elsewhere.

It's high time the BN stop giving undue attention to Pakatan and concentrates in regaining its credibility and tackle the economic crisis.

We Are In A Haze! No Rhetoric And Histrionics Please.

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Is 1 Malaysia going to be like 'Islam Hadari', an oracular slogan , widely misunderstood and nobody knows exactly what it is. The Prime Minister denied it is the same as Malaysian Malaysia promoted by Lee Kuan Yew when Singapore was still in Malaysia.What is it than ?

A slogan without substantive information and without the seriousness and sincerity to implement would end up making the people more weary and distrustful of the government.

With Mahathir we had 'Bersih Cekap Dan Amanah', a complete misnomer because corruptions actually grew under his administration as compared to previous administrations. Under Abdullah we have 'Islam Hadari' every one knows the name but doesn't know what it is and was never implemented other than staying on the lips of the progenitor. Now, under Najib we have '1 Malaysia', a catchy slogan but still a complete mystery to most Malaysians.

Rhetoric and histrionics bespeak the kind of politicians we have on both sides of the political fence.Mere voluble without any element of substance. Political gimmickry at best.Malaysians are more interested in how government actions can translate into benefits for them. Slogans are useless if they don't materialise into actions.

Najib has only three years to bring about drastic change to the government poor image.Recent racialist outbursts by those aligned to the ruling party are not doing him any good and may spoil his attempt to narrow the bridge among the races.He must fully explain his 1 Malaysia concept and how the various races can benefit from it.

The people have had enough of slogans, political bumbling and empty promises.It's time to give the realm of practicality, honesty and reality to the people.Action speaks louder than words.

Najib's government must make certain sacrifices if he seriously want to bring the people back to its fold.

Anwar Running Out Of Silver Bullets

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A miss is as good as a mile they say and it looks like with Najib at the helm the distance between Anwar and the coveted title may have stretched far apart. An infinite journey for Anwar unless the bomb he planned to drop tonight has something to do with him staging another coup.

In his usual tongue in cheek style he ridiculed Najib releasing of the 13 ISA detainees quoting inconsistency.

Certainly, I don't expect Anwar to be jumping with joy and showers Najib with accolades. His strong advocate against the ISA and his negative response against Najib's recent actions shows his own inconsistency.Does he expect those people to be locked up for life? They must be a time when they have to be released from detention. Depending on the severity of their crime some may have to stay longer.

He said "Pakatan Rakyat still protests against this draconian law. They can still detain, then release, detain and release. Where is the justice? What kind of government is this?"

When he was in UMNO and was deputy prime minister he didn't talked like this.He was quite happy helping to lock up those who criticised the government with his eyes wide open and his conscience locked. What kind of politician is he?

He said UMNO is a party of flip-flops and in his usual demagogic rendering said "When we said the RM7 billion economic stimulus package was not enough, they said, no, this is enough. Then Najib announced a new RM60 billion plan and they said we support it. When the government called the detainees terrorists, they supported. Now it says they are suddenly innocent and they also support."

Anwar Ibrahim appears to have run out of silver bullets and is taking potshots at Najib.

Najib:He Is No Wimp !

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He defies expectation of an authoritarian rule predicted by many.Surprises that have thrown the oppositions and skeptics in utter disbelief and one that may influence the outcome of the three by-elections.

Although to early to tell, Najib had started on the right footing, doing what the ethnocentric leaders in UMNO had refused to do for decades.A prime minister who has his ears to the ground will go a long way.

He has on his first day as prime minister did the unthinkable and the unexpected.He released 13 ISA detainees including some Hindraf leaders and lifted the suspension of two opposition publications - Harakah and Suara Keadilan. He has also indicated that his government will comprehensively review the ISA which has been a thorny issue and a rallying point for the oppositions.

Although, I don't expect him to abolish the ISA in totality, I believe he would find ways and means to fine tune it and to bring it in line with the justice system. I am not against the ISA and Seditious Acts as long as they are not abused by those in power and only used in its proper context.

One can now see that Najib is not a wimp or going to be wimpish and intimidated by the warlords in UMNO. His assertiveness to deal with a situation is a good sign.

As he has said earlier to judge him by his actions.

Sacrilegious ?

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I can understand not to mention or ridicule the Sultan of Perak decision on the Perak crisis but why would mentioning Altantuya name is now considered sacrilegious.

If the Home Ministry acted on this just to carry balls of the new PM than it certainly is not good news for Najib and UMNO. Not a good move at all.

Najib has in no uncertain term said he has nothing to do with the girl and have sworn that he had never met her. There are no evidence that can tie him to the girl.The purported photograph, other than the one doctored by Tian Chua, have never made an appearance. Malaysians should give him the benefit of the doubt and stop the mud-slinging.

Anwar Ibrahim and the oppositions can say umpteen times her name and till kingdom come, if he is innocent he should not worry.

He should take them to the cleaners, otherwise, it wouldn't stop.

Is The Road To Hell Paved With Good Intentions ?

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The famous Hamlet's soliloquy "To be or not to be". Will the prophecy of so many people about Najib's administration come true. Anwar Ibrahim has prophesies the same here.Would it be a case of "The road to hell is paved with good intentions" and whatever good he does would still not be good enough? Is he a victim of wrong public perception ?

Najib will be the most controversial figure to ascent the highest office.He became prime minister by default rather than popular choice and came with a heavy load.

His late father Tun Abdul Razak took over the nation when it was in turmoil and emergency law was passed to stop further violence and bloodshed.Razak headed the National Operations Council.The May 13 tragedy culminated in the Tungku handing over power to Razak in 1970.Parliament and political parties were suspended, press censorship imposed, all political activities banned and use of the ISA to detain troublemakers. Within less than two years Razak managed to bring back peace to the country and Parliament was reconvened in 1971 with the formation of a new coalition government, the Barisan National (BN) comprising all political parties, except the DAP. PAS joined but was expelled in 1977.

In hindsight, without emergency rule and use of the ISA the situation could have been been worse and dragged on much longer.

There is similarity in Najib's and his father's ascension to the premiership, albeit in a different environment. His was a peaceful and planned transition, while his father's came at very difficult times and leadership was thrust on him as the Tungku was seen as a weak leader and his policies not benefiting the Malays. To certain extent Najib replacing Abdullah was of the same nature, Abdullah was also perceived to be weak.

In the early 70s the Malays economic and living standard were still low. Almost 75% of Malays living below the poverty line and excluded from the modern economy.The May 13 tragedy was the result of this disparity and the near loss of political power. The Tungku, for lack of experience, had only wanted political power for the Malays and the civil service to be manned mainly by Malays.He overlooked the economic power. Money can buy material comfort, favours, sex and lately as we all found out can also buy politicians.Therefore, money and lots of it can do miracles, almost anything.Without money life can be miserable and society can be cruel to those who doesn't have it. This is the root of UMNO's problem, money ! money ! money ! every one in UMNO wants a lot of money and they don't care, in the eyes of society, how they obtain it, ill-gotten or otherwise, as long as it's easy, fast and big. They have forgotten what they are there for, they have forgotten what sacrifices previous leaders had made to bring this nation to what it is today.They have forgotten the basic principal of decent human behaviour and lavished themselves with the trappings of power. They have not an ounce of guilt or shame that the money they have are not acquired through hard work or entrepreneurship but through an easy ride on the gravy train.

You hear of horror stories of wives of politicians buying Hermes handbag worth RM90,000.00 and holidays paid by Chinese towkays.You hear of politicians making million of dollars without any business to their names. This is what Najib needs to stop if he wants UMNO to regain its past glory. If things are done within reason nobody will complain, it is the excesses that have driven the people away.

When the late Tun Razak introduced the NEP in 1971 to help narrow the economic gap between the Malays and other races mainly the Chinese it was a sincere and benevolent act to remove the economic imbalance and bring the Malays to higher economic level. Never in his wildest dream he invented the NEP to enrich only the Malays in UMNO. It was mean for all Malays.

Najib must do a serious examination of where UMNO has gone wrong, not only the Chinese and Indians are running away but educated urban Malays are equally disillusioned and have shown their discontentment at the last general elections by voting the oppositions.

Now that Pak Lah will be out of the picture will Najib revert to his father's original idea of what the NEP should be about and put a stop to the gravy train, or at least minimise it, or would he follows in Mahathir's footstep and bring back authoritarian rule and continue with the status quo?

Is the road to hell paved with good intentions?

New Mahathirism: A Pre-judgement ?

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It's the end of the Badawi's era and the beginning of a new Mahathir's era.

Malaysians are watching closely the road that Najib will be taking to redeem himself.How he is going to extricate himself from a whole slew of allegations which he claims to be unfounded and manufactured by the oppositions.They are malicious and baseless lies spread by the oppositions to smear his good name he claimed.

There is a general perception that Najib will be turning back the clock to the Mahathir's era, the use of strong arm tactics to intimidate the oppositions, muffle the media and crack down on the alternative media where the smear campaigns and oppositions to him ruling the nation resounding loudly.

Najib is asking Malaysians to judge him by his actions and said he has not taken office yet but people were already pre-judging him.

Malaysians are basically skeptical because of his non-reaction to the allegations other than denying it. Malaysians wanted him to clear his name by using the justice system which he seems not to be in favour of thus making the people even more suspicious.Tengku Razaleigh has asked him to exhaust the legal system to clear his name.Razaleigh has, in the past, used the legal system to clear his name when news report implicated him in the BMF scandal.

Mahathir has strongly indicated his return to UMNO and the entire nation is glued to a political watch of whether Mahathir will have undue influence in his administration. In another word would Najib be under his thumb? Will he takes Mahathir as the wise old man and a fatherly figure that he should render his respect and obedience ? Mahathir has openly thrown his support for Muhyiddin who had been instrumental in pressuring Pak Lah to step down. Would Mahathir make full use of Muhyiddin to pressure Najib to compliance ?

Malaysians will get an early indication of whether Mahatirism has snuggle back into the administration when Najib chooses his cabinet ministers.The one person that Mahathir wanted no business with is the young and restless Khairy Jamaluddin. He has openly attacked Khairy and wanted him out of the Youth race and later openly told Najib not to appoint him to the cabinet.By tradition the youth chief is usually given a cabinet post.

Will Najib appoint Khairy to the cabinet and faces the wrath of Mahathir or appease him and not appoint Khairy and faces the wrath of the party youth division ?

Autocracy Or Atonement ?

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So! Najib got his dream team after all, if not all, at least most of it.With the exception of the Youth and Wanita wings nearly all his men are in place at the top echelon of the party.

The casualties among ministers and menteri besar would see some changes in the cabinet line-up.At least there would be a new Home Minister, new Foreign Minister and new Minister of Tourism. Another vacancy that may be in the offing is the Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumers Affairs presently under Shahrir Abdul Samad.He lost his bid for a seat on the Supreme Council.

Najib has plenty of room to make major changes to the cabinet and those ministers who failed to secure victory have made life easier for Najib to overhaul the cabinet and infuse new blood into the lacklustre cabinet.

From the new crop of leaders, many are uninspiring, unimpressive and known quantities. Maybe, Najib should start looking for professional ministers and engage them on contract basis especially for crucial ministries like the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Trade and Industry.These two ministries are the crucial conveyors in spurring economic growth to overcome the economic and financial crisis.

Sabah got a big shot in the arm when Shafie Apdal won one of the vice-presidents and Chief Minister Musa Aman got one of the highest number of votes in the Supreme Council.The head of Puteri was also won by Sabahan Rosnah Abdul Rashid Sharlin. Sabah also secured 2 more seats in the Supreme Council, Lajim Ukin and the controversial bocor MP Bung Moktar Radin.

Well, you can't put a good guy down and Malaysia must have court jesters not only in Parliament but also in every political party supreme councils, otherwise, Malaysian politics would be such a pallid and boring affairs.

It must be the saddest day for Ali Rustam.Looking at the votes obtained by 'Double-Barrelled Muhammad' he could have put up a good fight against Muhyiddin.

It will not be easy ride for Najib with Muhyiddin as No.2 because if he can't perform satisfactorily instability in the party will not leave him in peace and Muhyiddin is not a man who is going to sit around and let the party slide further down into the abyss, likewise, don't expect Mahathir to be sitting quietly in the corner.

All eyes are on Najib now, how he chooses his cabinet, how he tackles the economic crisis and most crucial of all how he deals with the oppositions. Many in UMNO believe a return to autocracy would fortify UMNO. This simplistic and outmoded political philosophy if simply put...... is a political suicide.

A return to Mahathirism is not the answer, atonement would be more likely what Malaysians are looking forward to.

Return From The Dead

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Just as I expected Najib will not get his dream team and the UMNO rank and file have shown they are not going to be cowed into electing candidates favoured by the top leadership.

The wind of change is brewing in UMNO and it is not coming from the top, it's coming from the bottom.They are also sending a clear message to former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad to stop interfering in the party affairs. The results of the Youth and Women wings will have a bearing on the election of the deputy president and vice-presidents.

In November 2008 I wrote.......In my earlier article "Hell Hath No Fury Like A Woman Scorned" I said I place my bet on Shahrizat winning the race against Rafidah.I still do and the ground swell is moving in favour of Shahrizat.

I believe majority of members of Wanita UMNO had already decided who they want as their leader.

Read the full text here.

My congratulations to Khairy Jamaluddin.Most have signed his death warrant. Only few can sense that the rank and file are fed up with being forced to choose leaders they have no liking for and will be sending the message across to the top. Of course, some will say he won by money politics.

Khairy should be given an important ministerial position to bring out the potentials in him.I am sure he will out perform many of the dead woods in the cabinet.A major overhaul of the cabinet should be Najib's priority.More young blood should be brought in.

I am sure many of my readers will not be happy with this suggestion but than I am a different kettle of fish, I don't have herd instinct, right or wrong, I make my own analysis and judgement. So far so good.

From what transpired the last few days, from Najib and Hishamuddin's speeches there were no specifics for changes other than asking the rank and file to give full support to the leadership and asking them to elect good and honest leaders. Najib wants leaders who are able and are themselves enablers, who dare to change and are receptive to change, and who dare to criticise and are willing to accept criticism.

This sounds like looking for a needle in a haystack. Where the head leads, the tail will follow and fish rots from the head first.If Najib can lead by example and rule honestly and fairly he should not worry who his men are.With the power in his hand he can weed out the corrupt and incapable ones. If the party want to survive the next elections it must show colour-blindness, the issue of race and religion should not be a constant reminder of who is the master.These words are better left unspoken.

Rabble rousing Hishamuddin, as usual, were in the mood for bashing and blaming others for the trouble in UMNO. This time it's not the Chinese or Indians, it's a fellow Malay whom he accused of being a traitor to the Malays.Anwar Ibrahim is a traitor to the Malays. Cliches that we have heard many times before and the Malays are not buying anymore.

There were more histrionics than a sincere desire for change. Hishmauddin is still as sardonic as before and have not learned how to be a punctilious leader.He certainly not an enabler that Najib was talking about.

The PM-in-waiting may be in for a bigger shock ?

Will It Be Chop And Change ?

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I wasn't wrong when I said there were subtle signs that the new PM is going to turn the clock back, to the good old days when evils stayed in the Pandora's box and Murphy was not allowed to go to war. The days of Abdullah's openess and freedom of expression may be over.Now it's not subtle anymore, it obvious we are in for a change.

First, suspend the opposition party publications without giving valid reasons, than ban internet based media from covering the party assembly because they are the most dangerous and never reported the truth and next ban all bloggers and makes it a crime to criticise the government or any of its leader.

So now we know what kind of change he was talking about.

Mahathir spent 22 years transforming this nation from a tropical backwater into one of the fastest growing economy in this region. He built first class infrastructures and brought peace and prosperity to the nation.Though, dictatorial at times, harsh, abrasive, uncompromising and to some people seemingly cruel he has brought about the most accelerated economic development and turned Malaysia into one of the top trading nations of the world.This is a man you either love or hate. A man much misunderstood said one of his sons.

At his ripe old age and after two heart by-pass operations he still has the energy that put some much younger man to shame.In his vision of a better Malaysia he may have trampled on some basic human rights notably freedom of speech but his autocracy has worked well in keeping racial tension under wrap.Another element that helped him in maintaining peace and harmony was the prevailing prosperity.When a nation is prosperous it would naturally be peaceful and he has successfully achieved both.

What Mahathir did may have worked well during his time and as much as he was feared he was also highly respected by majority of Malaysians.

Mahathir entered the scene as PM with a clean slate, didn't carry any excess baggage, other than being called a Malay ultra which proved to be wrong label.Though, he had used that labeling to get to a higher level he became prime minister for all Malaysians.Using the race card every now and then is not to incite the Malays to go against the other races but more to ask the Malays to rise to new height and challenges.The other races mistook this gesture as inciting racial tension. I believe that was not his intention.

Mahathir is in the same mould as Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore...both are benevolent dictators, which I would rather have than a free nation with the people going hungry.

It's different strokes for different folks.Can Najib emulates his style and succeed in restoring the dignity, respect and integrity to a government that has lost its credibility?

Malaysians want delivery not rhetoric.Let's hope he delivers.

Promises, promises!

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If there is one man who can do so much for this country it would have been him but he squandered his opportunity.

Abdullah Ahmad Badawi could have used his 2004 landslide victory to bring about the reforms he promised the people and he would be in that chair for a long ride. With such massive win he should have taken the opportunity to strengthen his position, push forth his reform policies and clamp down on the rebels in his party who opposed reforms.

He won massively because of his 'Mr Clean' image and the people disillusionment with Mahathir's autocratic ways. He could have changed all that and restore normalcy to the administration, but he couldn't and wouldn't. He became hostage to the demands of the warlords in his party who see any change in the status quo would mean less bounty on the gravy train.

Will Najib suffer the same fate ?

When Najib Tun Razak ascend to the highest office come this April, Malaysians may have no choice but to accept him as prime minister of the nation. No amount of grumbling, rumbling, rantings and raving will change things.It's fait accompli, we may have to live with it till the next general elections.

It's irony that Zaid Ibrahim, who is a lawyer and head of the biggest law firm in the country called on the Agong not to swear in Najib as prime minister.Unless there is another candidate who claimed to have support of the majority lawmakers in Parliament, the king would have no choice but to swear in Najib. Being a lawyer I would have thought Zaid should know that or was it Zaid's grandstanding ? I wonder who Zaid have in mind who could take over from Pak Lah.Maybe, he should suggest some names to the Agong.

Maybe, it's time Malaysians stop the negativism and give Najib a chance to prove himself. The democratic system here, no matter how much we hate the government, we can only change it either through the ballot box in a general elections or by vote of no confidence by majority of lawmakers in parliament. Any other action could be considered a rebellion. Unless there is a change to the law, going to the streets en masse is against the law. Many Malaysians see it as against their constitutional rights but until such time when we can put enough lawmakers in Parliament to abrogate such laws we have no choice but to live with it.

There are subtle signs that we may be going back to the Mahathir's era where the use of draconian laws would be heighten to clamp down on dissents and those deemed to be creating racial tension. Although, I agree such law should be used on extreme cases of jeopardising national security, such law should not be used indiscriminately to muffle critics of government and its policies.

Would Najib resorts to such measures?

If I were him, I wouldn't. The country has changed, the people have changed, there are more political awareness now than before. Change is imminent and if change don't come soon there will be change in the next polls.

What Najib should do now is to listen to the people's heart and listen well. Bring the changes. All the people ask for is less corruption, less abuses of power and make use of the people's money for the people's benefits. These are very simple and uncomplicated wishes that he could readily deliver if he wants to.

As I have always said in my previous posts the first thing he must do when he took office is to overhaul,...NOT RESHUFFLE..., the present cabinet. There are too many dead woods in the present cabinet, they have exhausted their usefulness and should be retired. A new crop of young,untainted,intelligent and hardworking people should be brought in to help him.

The people are watching and waiting anxiously.

Najib's Dream Team In Jeopardy ?

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Najib may not get his dream team if highly strung Mahathir doesn't stop his endless barrage of attacks against other candidates he perceived not suitable to contest the party elections due to their shady dealings. People are now saying he is only making it as an excuse to protect his son. Although, I agree with him that the disciplinary board have bungled their chance to show their seriousness to clean up the insalubrious image of the party, his constant harping on the issue could end up being counter-productive.

Rumours on the ground say his son Mukriz is trailing behind the other two candidates, Khir Toyo and Khairy Jamaluddin and that the contest is now between these two. This must be bad news that this master of sarcasm may not like to hear. The banning of Ali has shown fissures in the rank and file.

Most Malaysians and political pundits gave Muhyiddin the edge but those inside the party are not overly optimistic. The frustration and disappointment may translates into protest votes.

Mahathir is a man who is known to detest any challenge or competition when he was in top leadership of the party. After the near fatality when he contested for the party president against Razaleigh in 1987 he eventually introduced a formula that makes it difficult for anyone to challenge his leadership. Candidates can only contest the top posts if they get the minimum prescribed nominations from the party divisions. When he had the fall-out with Abdullah he wanted the restriction removed to allow anyone to challenge Abdullah if he decides to contest again.However, his hard-nosed and endless attacks and manoeuvring had managed to unseat Abdullah.

Is Mahathir being unreasonable and demanding too much and in the process worsen the situation? Indeed, most people see it that way.Demanding the removal of Khairy is superfluously unreasonable at this juncture. Things would be different if his son is not contesting, people would consider it as his genuine and sincere effort to save the party.

Will The Chickens Come Home To Roost ?

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The race to be deputy president of UMNO and which by tradition also carry the position of deputy prime minister has taken centre stage and once again embroiled and embattled the party.The political saga continued and the dire economy relegated to the back seat.

Embittered supporters of Ali Rustam who has been barred from contesting the deputy president post have threatened reprisal.How far this threat will go is difficult to tell.

Prime Minister-in-waiting Najib Tun Razak is worried and has deployed his men to try appease the rank and file and restore calm in the party. If Ali's supporters took their threat home than UMNO may have the 'chickens coming home to roost' and more than what they have bargained for, a deputy president from the land of the yahoos.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has promised to meet Ali Rustam on the matter and Ali has indicated that he is appealing against the ruling made by the disciplinary board which most party members think was unfair and had made the party a laughing stock. The judgement and sentences passed had become the butt of jokes among Malaysians, a kind of 'different strokes for different folks', or same poison but given different antidote, one die and the other survive.

"Najib is destined to rule" says the wife."Let's not do anything unethical to stop it. It is his turn,".

"If God says it is his turn, it is his turn," says Rosmah.Is she in a hurry to be 'First Lady'? Maybe, she is right there must be divine intervention and in spite of his unpopularity and excess baggage it must be divine ruling that he be made to lead this nation.

With age on his side, God willing, Najib will be there for a long time if.........he didn't screw it up and let the man every young Malaysian love to have as prime minister takes over.

If Najib is going to be there for yonks why are the disciplinary board and the leadership in UMNO so worried about Ali Rustam competing for the deputy president post? Wouldn't it be better to have a three-cornered fight rather than a one-to-one head on collision? Do they think UMNO can hold the fort until 2013 and thereafter?

Mahathir had change of deputies four times before he handed over the premiership to Abdullah Badawi. Will Najib keep the same deputy all the time, or, like Mahathir, change him when the affection wears out and yet make the same mistake, as Mahathir by his own admission says he chose the wrong successor. Even if Muhyiddin won this round would he be re-elected again next round or would he become prime minister before the term end?

In politics anything can happen, just as nobody expect Ali Rustam to be the front runner in the race for the deputy president. Don't forget it was Muhyiddin who initiated the exit of Pak Lah. He is the 'Braveheart' in UMNO and probably more acceptable to the masses.

The preoccupation with politics have made the government less occupied with finding solutions to the economic crisis that beset the nation.Announcing the stimulus is one thing but if nothing goes on the ground it would be just pure academic exercise. As I have said, time and again, we have lost precious time and the catch up game may be longer and more costly.

The US started their rescue package about eight month ago and they have yet to see results. I wouldn't be surprised if our economy enter negative territory of at least -0.5 to -1.5 percent for the the year 2009 and total export shrunk by 30-40 percent by mid-year.

This is a democracy in peril and a nation that has lost its rudder and is on a perilous journey into troubled waters if the politicking doesn't stop soon.

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Mahathir Knows Best

Hantu Laut

Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad warned Najib not to have corrupt leaders in his cabinet. He said Najib will be signing his own death warrant and will lose the next general elections if corrupt leaders become members of the cabinet. I wonder which UMNO leaders Dr.M consider clean and acceptable to the people ?

Although, I believe Dr M himself is not corrupted, whether he was aware or not, there were many unsavoury characters in his cabinet as well and most of them are still in the present cabinet.

Unless, UMNO cleans up its act the probability of losing power in the next general elections is pretty high. Sabah and Sarawak may not be the safety nets anymore. The three by-elections coming up soon will decide whether Najib has what it takes to be the prime minister.If he wins just two of the three by-elections than his credit rating would move into positive territory.Losing all or winning just one would have disastrous consequence on the tenure of his premiership. This is not just a test for him but a duel between him and Anwar Ibrahim.

To show that he is serious in wanting change the first thing he must to do is to undertake a major overhaul of his cabinet. He should bring in younger, capable and untainted faces. If he bowed to the wishes of the warlords in the party than he would face the same tragic circumstances that Pak Lah faced when he gave in to the growls of the warlords.

Like Obama he comes in as leader of a nation during difficult times.If he can't turn around the economic crisis within the next 12 months than he may cause disquiet within his party and possible revolt and shift of allegiance.

Najib will have a daunting and difficult task whether to clean up corruptions and do away with political patronage and faces uprising from his party royalists or allow the status quo to continue and faces possible extinction at the next polls.He may be placed in a situation of sitting between the devil and the deep blue sea.Without his strong conviction and resolve changes may not come.

Most members of UMNO see the party as a money machine and the higher they go the bigger is the windfall.This concept is deeply entrenched in the minds of the members as can be seen by the use of money in their quest for positions in party elections.They are prepared to spend first and knew they can recoup the amount many times more when they are in position of influence.

For 22 years Mahathir was probably the only brain that was working in UMNO.

Will Najib return to Mahathirism? Dr M knows best.

Saving Malaysia: Najib's Recipe

Hantu Laut

It's RM30 billion, just what I figured it should be. Finally, they agree there is going to be a bad recession in the country.Full text of Najib's recipe here.

Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak announced a two-year stimulus package of RM60 billion in a mixed basket of the good, the bad and the ugly.There was no mention of where the money coming from or how the government wish to raise the funds.

I must say overall the package is well thought out and should be able to stimulate the economy but obviously much depend on how it is managed and more importantly the global economy is working in tandem with our effort.Nothing much the government can do if the world economy stays in the doldrums.

Those in government and government linked economists wish to believe that Malaysia is different from countries like Singapore and Hong Kong. In some ways that may be true but in many ways they are the same......they are export-dependent economies, making them at the mercy of the world markets.

A prolonged recession would have dire effect on the people's livelihood.Many low and middle income Malaysians do not have savings to tide them over bad times. Severe and prolonged recession would raise tension against the government and ethnic tension, fan by those desirous of pitting the people against the government, would certainly increase.Although, the government have taken the right step to take care of the economic engines first and shows greater attention to its survival, it must not forget the interest and welfare of the individual. There is nothing worst than having no money to sustain your daily existence.That's why I proposed in my earlier post to allow those who have lost their jobs to draw half of their basic salary from their savings in the EPF for a maximum of 6 months.This would give them the basic necessities to survive before they can secure another job.

The double deduction to be given to companies that employ workers retrenched by other companies can lead to abuse. Unscrupulous employers can sack their existing employees and replace with new ones to take advantage of the double deductions.Unless, the government fine-tune the terms and conditions it will have negative effect.

Too much emphasis was given on the financing of business but very little in cutting the costs of doing business.That's why I proposed incentives,rebate and reduction of taxes and duties in my earlier post.In a period of contraction of the economy the costs of doing business must come down either by market forces, by intervention or both.

Loan guarantees and easy access to the capital market would be most welcome by the business community as long as they are not designed to bail out cronies and friends making it difficult for those not well-connected to have access to the facility.

In time of uncertainty, risky and low-yield investments the issuance of government-backed saving bonds is a welcome sign.Although, it will not increase liquidity in the system it is better than the current interest rate of fixed deposit with banks.There will be major shift to these saving bonds and a mad rush to buy it for those who have spare cash.

Equitable distribution of projects and suspension of the NEP during this period of economic uncertainty should be seriously considered if the BN wish to salvage its sunken popularity.

The drop in export is going to be pretty serious.It's going into a tailspin during the 1st half of this year.The 1st quarter result would be out by next month and I wouldn't be surprised to see a decline of 25-30%. A negative growth for 2009 is not a figment of the imagination. Malaysians should be prepared for more bad news.The stimulus will need at least 3-4 months to kick start and by then we would only have about 6 months left for the year and probably half the job undone.

As usual Anwar Ibrahim is uninspired.