Saturday, March 7, 2009

The Long And Winding Road

Hantu Laut

Malaysia, on the other hand has been sending out euphonious messages to its citizens not to worry about the impending economics gloom.The leaders say they have everything under control without spelling out the measures taken or to be taken in the event of a precipitous decline in the economy.The first-half of 2009 would be crucial for Malaysia if the export market continue to shrink and prices of its primary products and manufactured goods declined drastically.

I anticipate export receipts to decline at least by 20 to 30 % in the 1st-quarter of 2009 as demands for electronic products,palm oil,wood-based products and crude oil declined due to poor demand in the importing countries.Falling prices would further contribute to lowering of the GDP.

That's what I wrote in December 2008 in this article.

January exports drop 17pc to RM38b

KUALA LUMPUR, March 6 — The country recorded RM8.83 billion in trade surplus in January, making it the 135th consecutive month of trade surplus since November 1997, but total volume declined by 29.7 per cent from a year ago.

Total trade value for the month was RM67.77 billion.

Exports in January 2009 were valued at RM38.3 billion, a drop of 27.8 per cent from January 2008, the Statistics Department said in a statement today. Full story here.

Total imports fell by 32 per cent to RM29.47 billion from a year ago.

"Month-on-month, exports fell by 16.9 per cent from December 2008, while imports were lower by 14.7 per cent. The performance in January was in tandem with countries that have announced their January trade figures," it said. Full story here.

Even if the government implements the stimulus package there would be little chance of any recovery this year.Recovery is not only dependent on the stimulus package by the government. Malaysia being an exporting nation depends much of its economic well being on the global economy, particularly the Western economies.If the global economy continues to be in the doldrums than it would a long ride before we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The public and private sector foreign debts would become more expensive to service if the ringgit continue to depreciate against other major currencies. The ringgit may breach the RM4.00 to the US$ during the 2nd half of this year if the economy doesn't pick up.

Holders of private foreign debts in foreign currencies should consider retiring their foreign debts or part of their foreign debts by borrowing ringgit from the domestic market and pay off their foreign debts. The myopic management of Tenaga have incurred foreign exchange loss of RM1.2 billion on their US$ and Yen debts.Obviously, they are confident the ringgit would appreciate against these currencies or at least stay at comfortable level.

They were wrong.

17 comments:

donplaypuks® said...

Isn't it amazing then that Tenaga's Head Honcho should have been voted CEO of the Year? What a laugh!!

Unlike 1997/98, I think we have clear advanced warning. So, there is no need to worry about what the Economist or Wall St Journal might think or say. BNM should go ahead now and fix the US$ Exchange Rate at $3.80. This time around, they don't have Soros as the fall guy to blame things on.

After all, Washington, London and Paris are now doing exactly what they castigated Mahathir for in 1997/98. They are dishing out crony bailouts like it's going out of fashion and it ain't quite the end yet by a long, long way!! Heh, heh, heh!!
http://donplaypuks.blogspot.com

SM said...

HL,

Don't you think we need a change? Even if it's the "hated" DSAI & PR (what other choce do we have?).
How much more can we take of this crap from this worthless Govt?

Anonymous said...

Hantu

Atleast you are honest in your writting to show that you are a BN supporter. What has the opposition done to you that you have to call them sumbag. Let him present the evedience and let us jdge. If he has Najib's voice on tape offering the 50 Million ?. You seems to pass judgement too early. i guess you are doing damage control on behalf of Najib. How much has Najib paid you to spin the lies.

Anonymous said...

Hantu

How much is najib paying you to be his spin doctor. You are jst a plain lair who twist the lies to suppose truth. Shame on you.

donplaypuks® said...

All you Anons here,

I am no BN supporter, but you guys don't seem to have a grasp of the Global Economic disaster that's being played out.

It does not matter whether the sleeping PM, Najib or DSAI is in charge. They have to intervene in a big way to keep things stabilised. USA, Europe, Japan etc are all doing exactly the opposite of the free trade and economy policies they were preaching before.

When faced with deep recession they are all into protectionism, financial rescues and crony bailouts to the tune of trillions of $ by printinhg tons of money!

So, our Govt and BNM must act quick and act fast. They must protect our currency, national reserves, trade balance and economy from being reduced to zero against the self-interest of USA & Europe.
http://donplaypuks.blogspot.com

fearless said...

HL,

Comparatively we are still better off than our neighbors and many other countries, BN government should be given credit for this. BN government is not perfect but still offer hope and a better bet for better govern, on the other hand PR government offer chaos, they talk about change but reject changing for better. Tourists have abandon a neighbor country due to the many demonstrations and frequent change of government, been flocking into our country. Our fortune may change if those idiots follow our neighbor's path. Today the PR's people demonstrated in protest the use of English to teach Mathematics and Science, are they telling the world that we are moving backwards and closing up, globalization does not matters, we are able to live by ourselves.

kittykat46 said...

If BN politicians and even local economists use the financial stimulus which Washington, Tokyo, London are dishing out as a signal for massive bailout of local cronies, its a major misunderstanding, perhaps deliberate, of what's happening internationally.

For example, the US and British government's injection of fresh capital into banks like Citibank, RBS, are effective nationalisation, and, in fact, destroying the value of existing shareholder's holdings. Witness how Citibank's shares are now worth less than a dollar.

The US government is NOT propping up existing shareholders, because the existing shareholders are being paid NOTHING. They are attempting to keep the bank afloat as a functioning business, because the repercussions of allowing Citibank or AIG to collapse are too frightening. But don't interpret that as cronies are being bailed out. In fact, if the existing shareholders were "cronies" they would be cursing the US government. Because minority shares in an effectively nationalised company are practically worthless - exactly what's happening to Citibank.

This is totally different from the bailouts of Tajuddin Ramli, Halim Saad, etc. back in 1998, where the Malaysian government (i.e. taxpayer) actually directly paid these people cash for their holdings in heavily devalued companies.

Now, THAT is what I call a crony bailout.

XieAn said...

Talking about 1997/1998 recession due to currencies crisis, Anwar as Financial Minister then stupid act of hiking interest rate drastically kill loans growth which cause the economy to spiral down into deep recession. Mahathir opt for capital control although seen as to protect the interest of his family and closest associates. Under that direction, monetary was eased, interest rate were reduce and debt restructuring began. Investor confidence came back, resulted in an impressive recovery.

Critics all over the world then condemn Malaysia actions but criticism began to turn to praise when Malaysia turned out lean and neat.

The US and Western countries remedies by pouring trillions into their economies have not proven anything yet and so have nothing to shout about.

Malaysia work hard on strengthening its financial systems, improving standards of transparency and corporate governance. The aim is to create an economy that could better withstand a future attack on its currency. That prudent measure will be put to test now and a fair gauge will be how our economy fare compare to other countries. Without any doubt, recession will hit most country and the question now is not how deep and who will be in recession but, how quickly and how much our economy will recover.

Needless to say, the scale and speed of economy recovery shall depend greatly on people strength and their united efforts to spend instead of saving, Bankers willingness to lend with low interest rate, traders willingness to lower down pricing to achieve more trades and lastly the government aids of prime pumping to put money into people's pocket, one way of doing is increasing the salary of civil servent.

SM said...

Fearless,

We'r better off than our neighbours?
Think again. Definately not Singapore. Definately not Brunei.
Maybe Thailand only! As for Indonesia, they have been making strides in thier efforts for unity & change & they are slowly catching up with us.
We are sitting on our laurels. Yes, the BN brought us to where we are but the BN has not changed. Actually it has changed (my mistake). It has changed for the worst. We are more divided than ever before.
Pak Lah became PM with so much hope by the people but alas, he has failed miserably. To date he has become the worst PM in the history of Malaysia.
Najib will bring us to complete disaster! Just look at the corruption in UMNO (even Mahatir has sounded warning. He should know)!

Anonymous said...

Just found out Hantu is the cover for najib's spin doctor. We are got tipu by Hantu

kittykat46 said...

Anonymous 10.04 PM
"Just found out Hantu is the cover for najib's spin doctor. We are got tipu by Hantu"

Hahahaha...I hope not.
But there are plenty such hantus on the Internet right now...pretending to be "independent" or "non-partisan" but in reality BN/UMNO cyber troopers or spin doctors.

Anonymous said...

Well, Hantu is holier than thou sometimes.I remember being scolded by him for being 'anonymous' when in truth I am quite sure there's no legal real person by the name of Encik Hantu bin Laut...the pot calling the kettle black...

He wants BN to change for the better, something that will not happen. Basically, it's like he wants cows to fly. Cows cannot fly la Hantu..

Kind of sad because i do feel Hantu is sincere for wanting positive changes for the country and I believe he could contribute a lot more if he was a non partisan...

why oh why..real struggle is still not about Pak Lah or Najib or Anwar or BN or PR la Hantu. It's just a simple confrontation of right vs wrong depending the issues...

fearless said...

SM,

Singapore already in deep recession, Malaysia not there yet. Singapore fourth quarter GDP growth was -4.6 where else Malaysia was 0.1

The analysis below clearly point to that PR are to blame for bringing down Malaysia GDP growth and KLCI Index during second and third quarter of 2008.


First quarter > GDP growth 7.4, KLCI Index 1500 to 1247. Strong growth and all time high in Bursa were resulting of stable government.

Second quarter > GDP growth 6.7, KLCI Index 1247 to 1186, May reach a hight of 1290 then drop. Growth and Bursa coming down due to BN done poorly in 08 2008 election and PR talking of toppling the government causing instability and uncertainty.

Third quarter > GDP growth 4.7, KLCI Index 1186 to 1018, Growth and Bursa escalate downwards due to PR's actions of toppling the government intensify. Sept 16 2008 saw Bursa dip to 980.

Fourth quarter > GDP growth 0.1, KLCI Index 1135 to 876, This is due to the collapses of both Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers which cause the global financial markets crashed, Oct 2008 Bursa drop to 840.

Anonymous said...

Look Hantu, it's your only ally Mr fearless with his very 'convincing' arguments. I guess Hantu must be proud of himself now.....with ally like that, you don't need detractors Hantu :-) ....

SM said...

Fearless,

Your analysis clearly shows that PR brought down Malaysia's GDP?!
Geeeze! Talk about Brain wash!
We are not in Recession? The difference between Singapore & Malaysia is that the Spore Govt. is honest & corrupt-free whereas the Malaysian BN Govt. is corrupt to the core & a bunch of liars!

Fear not Lies said...

The Primary reason for the slowdown in the Malaysian economy in the 2nd and 3rd Quarters of 2008 was the major spike in inflation.

The peak inflaction in Q3 was strongly influenced by the Malaysian government's panic-driven 40% increase in the cost of petrol on June 5 2008.

Just to refresh our memory in the midst of insincere spin from BN operatives.

Anonymous said...

".....The public and private sector foreign debts would become more expensive to service if the ringgit continue to depreciate against other major currencies. The ringgit may breach the RM4.00 to the US$ during the 2nd half of this year if the economy doesn't pick up........"


Wake up call for the MALAYSIAN government when planning stimulus package.

Alarm !
Alarm !
Alarm !

Almost all MALAYSIANs from top to bottom hit badly by recent economy down turned.



"Governments must give to all those who have hit life's hurdles the chance to rebuild and have a future.”

Pauline Hanson quote