Wednesday, May 8, 2013

The Phenomenal Chinese Swing: Blame Anwar Or Najib ?

Hantu Laut

You can call it Chinese Tsunami, Chinese Swing, or Urban Swing what the difference, it just a choice of word and they all carry the same meaning

Different people have different analysis of the outcome of the 13th General Elections.

A Kadir Jasin says it's a "Malaysian tsunami" here

Certainly, not a deluge of biblical proportion by any measure of your imagination, but still a Chinese swing that still unable to sink BN's mighty ship. Anwar refused to accept the verdict and played up electoral frauds, accusing Najib of impropriety.

Here, another political buff, one Dr Samsul Amri Baharuddin,  says it was an "urban swing" kind of thing.......closer to home but not exactly close enough.

I would like to call it the "Phenomenal Chinese Swing" if using the word "tsunami" sound politically incorrect to some people. 

I have always thought the Chinese are more open-minded than the Malays and are not easily rattled by such exploitation of word, but it is elections season and exploiting anything and everything has its benefits. 

Why Pakatan Rakyat failed to capture Putrajaya?

Was it the phantom voters, money politics, vote buying and all the allegations of electoral frauds?

NO! Not exactly.

If the people want to change, no amount of cheating can stop them.   

In 1985 when the mighty BERJAYA under Harris Salleh with all its resources and money was challenged by newbie PBS led by Joseph Pairin Kitingan, who was sacked by Harris from BERJAYA, every political pundits predicted huge victory for Harris and the party. I remember Harris even put up a huge scoreboard in the compound of his house showing BERJAYA collecting 47 seats and PBS 1 seat. Only Joseph Pairin will win in Tambunan.

It was a night of misery for Harris and the BERJAYA boys, the final tally was 6 seats for his party and the rest taken by PBS and its ally USNO. Harris lost to an unknown candidate, a giant killer.

There were some tears shed that fateful night as I saw a few of the boys openly crying of the unthinkable loss and one of them had  stood in the recent elections in Sabah, but lost in both the parliamentary and state seats.

NO!..... PR lost not entirely because of electoral frauds.

They lost because of Anwar Ibrahim?

He was the one who caused PR and himself to fail and now he is bloody sore and refuses to accept defeat and is going disturb the peace and harmony of this nation by inciting the people not to respect the results of the general elections.

Why he failed?


Anwar is the biggest exhibitionists this country have ever seen, to him everything must be grand, imposing and must have scale of splendour and that he must outshines everyone. He loves street protests and demonstrations and hates any form of dissension. Cross his path and you are history. Many have swallowed the bitter pills and left him without a fight.

He loves political grandstanding, the very reason he chose the cities and ignored the kampongs. To him it is not about winning for the people, it's all about winning for Anwar, Anwar and Anwar. .

Did I not say the real battles are in the kampongs.

Read my humble prognosis  "If You Want To Win This Election, Take Care Of The Kampongs" and go figure out why Pakatan Rakyat failed to takeover Putrajaya.

You don't have to crack your head to make weighty analysis of why they failed the objective.

We all know Anwar is a very smart man, a scholar of sort, fantastic orator, good communication skill and highly intelligent much to his own detriment. He can smothered his intelligence by falling in love with himself. He has no respect for the less educated and have no time for rusticity preferring to bathe in the limelight of the big cities. 

His sheer arrogance is the cause of his downfall and as I have said before this man will never be prime minister no matter how hard he tries.

Chinese discontent against the BN government has been brewing for a while and heightened by DAP well organised propaganda machinery using the alternative media to reach out to the Chinese community.

DAP had managed to pull the carpet from under PAS and PKRs feet in many of its roadshow in the urban areas, faithfully assisted by gullible PAS and PKR leaders, who want to share the moment of glory with DAP, who can draw record crowd to its rally.

In the just concluded 13th GE,  DAP collected 38 parliamentary  seats compared to 28 seats it garnered in the 12th GE.  PAS and PKR seats reduced to 21 and 30 respectively.In 12th GE PAS obtained 23 and PKR 31 seats.

PR had improved its parliamentary seats from 82 in 2008 to 89 in 2013 and gathered much higher popular votes than BN, gathered 5.489 million votes as opposed to BN 5.220 million.

Popular votes had never been the determining factor to form the government, our system is based on "first past the post" system, which gives the party that collects the first simple majority to form the government, same as the Westminster system in U.K. and other Commonwealth countries.

Popular votes is not the triggering mechanism in our system. 

Anwar refused to accept the verdict and played up electoral frauds, accusing Najib of impropriety to salvage his own embarrassment of shouting victory before the final countdown ends.

Najib did worse than Pak Lah. BN scored badly in almost all Chinese majority seats throughout the country, reflecting a massive rejection by the Chinese community and preference for the opposition DAP. If you remove Sabah and Sarawak from the equation, or if Sabah and Sarawak had performed badly, Najib would have lost the government.

DAP made further inroads into Johor, Sarawak and Sabah, winning more seats in these states.

Johor, the BN fortress and birthplace of UMNO came under heavy onslaught in PR first big foray into the state. Lim Kit Siang calculated move to try invade the state was fruitful. Out of 18 seats won by PR, 13 went to DAP, PAS 3 and PKR 1.

If anyone were to argue that it was not the "Phenomenal Chinese Swing" that eroded this BN fortress, the scrolled political pundits should immolate themselves, because they are pretty useless in their predictions before the elections, none have come close, except for the formidable and diminutive former Malaysian Minister Of Finance Daim Zainuddin, who hits the nail on the head. 

Still, don't believe it was the "Phenomenal Chinese Swing" that changed the political landscape. 

In the mother of all battles in Gelang Patah, Johor, where DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang pooled 54,284 votes against Johor strongman and ex-Menteri Besar Ghani Othman 39,522 votes the story was even more telling of Chinese political awakening. 

Gelang Patah has one of the highest turnout of voters topping almost 90%. It's a stark reality from the votes garnered by each individual that almost every Chinese voted for Lim and every Malay for Ghani. Lim garnered 58% of the total votes cast, which was slightly more than the total share of Chinese votes for the constituency.

Still don't believe it was the Chinese swing that almost helped PR entry into Putrajaya, but spoiled by Anwar's failure to recognise the importance of the rural constituencies in Peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak.

In my hometown of Kota Kinabalu all my Chinese relatives, close friends, acquaintances and people that I know Chinese all voted for DAP.

In Sabah, PR won 11 state seats. PKR took 7 seats and DAP 4 seats and also won 2 parliamentary seats. Chinese candidates on BN tickets won by the skin of their teeth in Chinese marginal areas and won mainly on bumiputra votes. 

The story was the same throughout the country.


The Chinese was once divided in different political parties that left them without much political clout. Both MCA and Gerakan are seen as lame ducks and manned by leaders who are more interested in self-preservation and corruptions than working for the interests of the community. This perception and a window of opportunity had driven the Chinese to consolidate their political power under one umbrella, just as what the Malays were doing under UMNO.

Though, BN had lost almost all Chinese supports it should stay benevolent and must maintain Chinese representation in the administration and try repair the rift with the Chinese community. 

Najib must not listen to the ultras in his party that may want to make an example of BN without Chinese. 

There are still pockets of Chinese that still support BN. MCA was not completely trounced, they managed to collect 7 MP seats.

Najib, must continue with his transformation programmes and change the mindset of the leaders in UMNO that things are not going to be the same anymore and that there will be no more gravy trains for them to hop a ride on, adopt zero tolerance for corruptions and restructure the economic pie that gives equitable opportunity to all Malaysians, irrespective of their colour and creed. 

Unless, he does it quickly, within the limited time he has, BN or rather UMNO would become irrelevant and would not be around after the 14th GE.

Anwar, should be a gentleman, should accept the people's verdict and live to fight another day, or keep the promise he made before the elections to withdraw from politics gracefully.

Again, Sabah and Sarawak are the kingmakers and Najib should not forget that they now hold the trump cards and he better be kind to these two states or else find himself in a very precarious position.

18 comments:

SM said...

HL,

A big yawn!!!!!
As usual you blame DSAI. Najib is now blaming the Chinese!!!
Of course he won't blame himself!
Threw money around like the Bank had a limitless bottom!
DSAI out-maneuvered Najib....face that fact. Lim in Johor was a collective decision of the PR. The PR is NOT BN (i.e. UMNO!). They make collective decisions.
Najib supported Ibrahim Katak Ali & Zul Keling Nordin....who do you think the Chinese & Indians are going to vote for?!
So now Najib will try to cover his ass by blaming the Chinese & hope he stays in power. Your Mamak Racist hero TDM is already smelling blood so he can ensure that his son is in line for PM one day in the future. You quote Daim Zainuddin? How many Billions did that crook steal from Malaysia?!
I was hoping for a more impartial analysis from you but I guess your hate for DSAI will forever cloud your judgement. Or is it that since Najib mentioned Chinese Tsunami, so all you pro-UMNO Bloggers have to say the same thing (or worse still like one of your heroes Papagomo....call out for Blood)?!
Everything is not about DSAI. You can have Zaid Ibrahim or his mother as leader of the PR & the Rakyat will still vote for the PR!
Here's a fact for you...PR won 53% of the vote & BN 46% or something like that. So PR won the 13th GE!
Pretty sad HL....I expected better from you!

Anonymous said...

HL,Anwar will never honour his word. So hoping that he will leave active politic after failing to capture Putrajaya will be futile. That was only gimmick as usual and now he painted a picture of fraudulent election result. Who can believe this Munafik?

Anonymous said...

Good opinions about the Chinese Swing but how do you account for Malay candidates from PKR and PAS winning is mixed race constituencies if you are so sure it is a Chinese Swing only towards DAP?

We have all known the Chinese have by and large been about 65% to 70% pro opposition (PR not totally DAP). This time it is about 80% pro opposition after having lost its fear of the bogeyman Hudud issue of PAS played by MCA.

Trengannu and Kelantan are predominantly Malays. PR has gone stronger in these two states not because of Chinese Swing surely.

Kedah was loss by PAS because of incompetent administration and the Chinese has swung the other way round. The Chinese voted for competency, not promises.

In Penang and Selangor, the PR is stronger now are not totally due to the Chinese's extra 10% but also due to the Malay swing.

Lim Kit Siang would not have gathered such a large majority without the swing of Malays in Gelang Patah.

I think we need detailed analysis before anyone can attribute BN's loss due to the Chinese Swing.

I think there is at least 10% Malay swing away from BN as well.

Now BN is back in power, let us see whether any promises made for Sabah and Sarawak will be fulfilled. Top of my list is the Pan Borneo Highway which had been promised for the last two decades.

As a Chinese, I know it is illogical statistically and an emotional nonsense that we will ever take over Malaysia. Don't let the racist right wing group in UMNO fool anyone and instill fear.

I care not whether any Chinese minister will be selected in the cabinet.

What do I want?
I want a righteous Malaysian leader to lead us.
I want a Malay, Indian, Iban or KadazanDusun who is fair to be my leader and to represent me.
I want a good political system where there is no more two third majority for any party or coalition to blatantly abuse power and blindly rob all of us.

That is what this Chinese want. Am I asking for too much?

Y1

Anonymous said...

Look at P44-Permatang Pauh:
Anwar's majority vote is 11721. Without 80% or more of Chinese voters (based on the turnout rate), He is doomed!

Raj said...

In view of your last paragraph, the PM should seriously consider his DPM be either a Sabahan or a Sarawakian. And to be fair, offer the "DPM-ship" to the other after 2.5 years until GE 14.

eddy said...

Cinami would be more politically correct...Cina Makan Mi sahja for all their effort to sink the BN ship, they inadvertently manage to help UMNO gain more seats in Parliament and the MCA honourably keeping their promise to resign from all Gomen post best of all they have also awaken many young Malays who are disinterested in politics who will be voters in GE14.

Anonymous said...

What are they talking about malaysian swing??study the numbers closely lah! Majority Malays even in Selangor voted BN. Funny they said even Malays voted DAP in gelang patah. Out of 95,071 voters Ghani received 39,522 which the numbers of Malay voters is 34%.

Anonymous said...

So what happened to the 2008 tsunami?

Don't you think Mamakkutty started the downfall of BN all because of his personal vendetta against Tun Abdullah?

What more does Mamakutty wants?

Mahathir dynasty forever and forever and the rest are just pawns in his game.

Anonymous said...

Malaysian Chinese in S"pore was reported to be so angry because DAP and PKR was not able to capture Putrajaya. Similar to Anwar they have counted their chicken before the eggs are hatched. So Anwar did not fulfilled his part successfully because more Malay are aware of the game.

Anonymous said...

This is a parliamentary democracy with first past the post system! Respect the voices of the 133 seats that rejected you as they have respected the voices of the 3 states and 89 seats that rejected them!

Anonymous said...

The few 'sophisticated' urban Malay don't care whether Anwar is Munafik, Peliwat or with a decay moral. This is because they want to show that they are modern people with an open minded thinking. Good luck to this modern Malay...they are not only stupid but also arrogant as they have forgotten how their ascendant struggle to achieve what they have now.

Anonymous said...

I am a Muslim and had voted for BN. If I had voted for PR would I be relieved?? PAS 21 seats and PKR with 30 seats but only 15 seats with Muslim candidates who won on the strength of non-Muslims. add that up you have 35 seats. BN has 88 plus 13 PBB seats that's 103 seats. The opposition supporters and voters still don't understand the outcome??? Pakatan has no legitimacy in protecting Muslim's interests but is in denial. Anwar is no Muslim leader as the numbers show



Anonymous said...

We are supporting BN but they have to continue with transformation to fight graft especially the commercial crime involving big company and financial institution which also need to monitor the Istana Kehakiman verdicts on commercial disputes where you could be surprise that they rejected to adduse fresh evidence that carry merit to cases that involve small fry against big guy. We saw few judges has been suspended for further investigation but there are still more worms. Ask Abu Samah.....if he has repented or not.

Anonymous said...

The commercial crime department will always inform the complainant that there is no case to follow up as they claimed that the case is a civil dispute. Even though after all evidence has been compiled and spoon fed to them, they will discriminately tell you no case ..no case..These public servants have no fear of losing their rice bowl as they know no disiplinary action will be taken against them when they did not discharged their duty deligently. Hishamudin how many more years you need to change to bring the force to a level of good image. These are the inputs you need to set the wrongs to right. If things don't gradually change then good luck to you...

miester81 said...

Reading a lots of blog about post election lately and i believe that you're take on it is spot on.

The DAP will try to deflect the issues just to gain sympathy from the Bumis which i believe is working well especially with the PAS supporters.

And i also agree that Chinese representation in the Cabinet is crucial especially in the Jabatan Perdana Menteri where their main roles has to be the National Reconciliation.

And even though i'm living in semenanjung, i greatly believe this is the time that the government give back the loyalty given by the bumis in Sabah and Sarawak by putting in more efforts to develop the two state. Its a gigantic task due the shear size of the two states but effort has to initiated now.

Misterzizou

Anonymous said...

Istana Kehakiman?? What about Datuk Kang suspension status?? And the issue of retired boss now become agent and influence the current judges to fix verdict on commercial cases as reported by bar council. Looking at that there should be a follow-up that as it is affecting the credibility of the courts. Can the respective ministry please enlighten with latest status? There should be no elegant silence on this.

Anonymous said...

More budget should be allocated to rural places in semenanjung, sabah and sarawak as these are people who have elected the goverment without asking too much. They have pissed the arrogant Anwar who had promised them with the moon and stars. So develop their place first and forget the urban. Build more 'rumah untok rakyat' in Senai and Nusajaya in Johore. Please Najib.

Anonymous said...

4:49

KARPAL AND LIM. DYNASTY ASSURED WHILE STILL HOLDING POSTS.