My Elusive Dream

Hantu Laut

Despite all those earnest declarations by Anwar of taking over the government latest by 16th September there seemed to be something missing in his calculations of what he called "we have the numbers". There appears to be no logical progression to those numbers under the present circumstances.

Anwar may have to wait until the next elections to try capture the Federal government.His sudden realization that it would be almost next to impossible for him to takeover the government this term unless there is a big exodus from almost all of the non-UMNO and non-PBB components of the BN or a mixture of all including significant number from UMNO.

The biggest stumbling block for him would be lawmakers from UMNO, MCA and PBB in Sarawak who are not likely to switch camp at the moment.

Without the full thrust of MCA and those from Sabah and Sarawak, he wouldn't have a chance of taking over the government.He may only get some of those from Sabah and Sarawak and, maybe, some from MCA, but wouldn't be enough to grab the trophy from Abdullah.It is not as easy as many of us would like to think.

With the exception of Yong Teck Lee of SAPP, other leaders in the BN components may not want to jeopardise their already well-rewarded positions. Only those who have worked out the risk factor, disgruntled and have nothing to lose would cross over to Pakatan.

Without deserters from UMNO and PBB, the maximum he could get from Sabah and Sarawak would be at best only give him 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak, giving him a maximum of 26, not enough to form a simple majority.With only Sabah and Sarawak and without massive defections from MCA, he has very little chance of success.

MCA has 15 parliamentary seats , MIC 3 and Gerakan 2.He has to take at least two-thirds of those seats including the 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak to have a comfortable majority.It is not going to be an easy task for him as he had made it clear he is not offering any monetary benefits or positions to those who wish to cross over.

Politics in Malaysia is all about money, positions and status.Even those who started with a noble value would eventually ended up licking their conscience.It would be like looking for a needle in a haystack to find a politician with one honest bone in them and with strong conviction to only serve the people and nation. Anwar should know this, he came from the same political school.

Would MCA get better treatment if it joins PR (Pakatan Rakyat) with arch rival DAP in there with 28 seats compared to MCA 15 assuming MCA moved over en-bloc? With the two tigers in DAP, Karpal Singh and Lim Kit Siang, MCA would be food for the tigers.

The political landscape would take a drastic and scary change if MCA and all the other non-UMNO parliamentarians crossed over to Pakatan Rakyat. It would be completely new dawn in Malaysian politics and the end of 'ketuanan Melayu' that our former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad kept reminding the Malays to safeguard.

Below would be the scenario if Anwar can successfully wrestles the Federal government away from Abdullah on the assumption that no UMNO and PBB parliamentarians joined in the crossover.

Pakatan Rakyat new profile:

Non-Malay seats
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DAP 28
Sabah(non-UMNO) 11
Sarawak(non-PBB) 16
PKR(non-Malay) 11
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20
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Total 86

Malay seats
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PKR 20
PAS 23
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Total 43

That would give him 129 seats, just enough to form a weak coalition and for the first time a government without Malay majority. A true Bangsa Malaysia government widely promoted by Anwar Ibrahim.

The above scenario is based on UMNO and PBB not losing any of their parlimentarians to the crossover and would stay as opposition until the next elections.

Another hypothetical scenario, remote but not impossible, is the making of a new and more powerful all-Malay coalition comprising UMNO, PAS, PKR and PBB with 147 seats in Parliament.

Without significant numbers from UMNO and other BN components joining him there is little chance of Anwar taking over the government in the immediate future.

Another stumbling block for Anwar is from his own coalition partners, PAS and DAP.

Lim Kit Siang of DAP had made it clear that his party would not support defections from the BN if based on promises of money and positions.Without these two incentives and knowing the true nature of our politicians, how many would want to cross over to ground zero ?

DAP knew bringing in other coalition partners would erode their power and influence in Pakatan.They are prepared to wait till the next elections to increase their intake of Chinese seats which they are highly likely to succeed as by then Gerakan and MCA would probably be history.

They have waited for this day of glory and are not going to let a moment of greed to destroy what they have fought for over four decades.With Penang and Perak under its control and significant influence in the Selangor state government and well represented in the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur they are not in a hurry to be a player at Federal level.

PAS have also sounded the same sentiment albeit on different issues.If there should be racial imbalance in the Pakatan line-up where Malay representation is not adequately met,PAS is likely to stay away from such move.

Both DAP and PAS are not in a hurry to grab the Federal government. Only Anwar is prepared for a coup de grace against Abdullah's government, all for his secret agenda, under the guises of equality for all Malaysians.

Bangsa Malaysia, maybe, an elusive dream after all.

The month of October will see the massive shifting of support from the Abdullah/Najib's camp to the Mahathir/Razaleigh/Muhyiddin's camp.

The only possible scenario that going to happen before the year end is the ousting of Abdullah and Najib as President and Deputy President of UMNO respectively, if they can't stabilise the tense and dangerous political climate the next few months.

Now Abdullah has to face a bigger problem to his already mounting and insurmountable problems.

Not only he has to play kung-fu with Anwar Ibrahim, he has to face an even more potent opponent, his old guru, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad who had declared to rejoin UMNO.