Hantu Laut
DAP won by the skin of its teeth.A win is a win.The BN election machinery buggered the whole campaign.They have a good chance of winning this seat but they blew it by over-indulgence.With so much goodies poured in the loss has become more terrifying.
As I have said in my previous post 'Veni,vidi,vici' the Foochows can spring a surprise and they did. The close call means DAP was unable to sway the Iban/Melanau votes.
There are several factors that caused the defeat.We'll have to wait and see the analysis when it comes out.
First and foremost, the Taib Mahmud factor and second equally damaging, the West Malaysian factor.
A week ago BN chance of winning the seat was much brighter.The last three days saw a complete reversal. The less than 60 percent turnout shows that many voters prefer to stay away.Side effect of the 'Greek Bearing Gifts'
Taib Mahmud is not well liked in many parts of Sarawak particularly with the Dayak and Chinese community due to his strong links with the big logging companies.Accusations of nepotism and corruption surrounds Taib and his family.
After almost 30 years at the helm Taib has yet to identify a successor.He is the second longest serving MP after Razaleigh and the longest serving chief minister.He has also put his son in parliament in the last general elections which got tongue wagging that his son would succeed him.This 'Bai Mao' or white-haired rajah as they called him has been too long in office and the people want him out.
Taib Mahmud understands local politics that's why he is visibly absent from the campaign other than his one or two lightning visits.
On the last day of campaigning an eye witness account of how much Taib is hated in Sibu tell of a story of a voter who went up to him and spat in front of him and overheard Taib saying in response "Ini bukan budaya kita, kamu mahu undi siapa kamu suka, undilah"
This is what can happen to a leader who overstayed his welcome. Taib Mahmud's tenancy expired some time ago and like most third world country's leader he is oblivious.
The state elections, which is round the corner, will be crucial for the BN.The West Malaysian wind of change blowing across the South China Sea has reached the shores of the East Malaysian state but it's too early for Pakatan to rejoice.It does not mean they can capture the state government in the forthcoming state elections.They probably can put a dent in the BN's armour and deny them the two-thirds majority.
In my previous post I said you can't pay a Chinese to buy his vote.
Obviously, West Malaysians politicians including our Prime Minister don't understand local politics and the Chinese psyche.Federal leaders should not have overwhelmed the campaign with their regular attendance.They should have left the whole campaign to local leaders.
Most West Malaysian politicians do not understand local politics in both Sabah and Sarawak.As much as I hate to say this, there are times, they actually become liability.Some East Malaysians particularly those in small towns and rural areas are xenophobic and couldn't relate to the politics of federalism.
The Chinese are not affected or moved by offering of instant noodles.... hefty donations and promises of better days when experience for the past 50 years tell a story of failed promises, indifference and uncaring leaders.
Najib's bag of goodies did not impress the Chinese at all and the unfortunate part is he may have to fulfill his promise if he wants to sail through the next by-election.
8 comments:
What a great post Bro, I guess it needs a political observer from Sabah/Sarawak to point out the nuances of the politics there. I hope Najib and his merry advisors will take note and learn pertinent lessons from the Sibu by- election....especially so about breaking the unwritten rule of not exposing the PM too much in the by-election.
Sibu is a good knock on Najib's and BN's head which will ensure that they comes down to earth after presuming in error that his 1Malaysia message has been a great success thus far.
As for the cool political cat,Taib Mahmud knows his time is up I suppose but I think his biggest problem is to select a successor who will take care of his vast family interest and that of his old taiko tycoon friends as well.
Agree that it is too early to tell that Pakatan's little tsunami in the Peninsular had finally arrived on Sarawak's shores. DAP won marginally with Chinese almost total support but apparently they still need a lot of catching up with the other Bumis there, to even dream about taking over Sarawak.
Money for nothing.Baru nak perasan ke?
I agree with your post. Further to my response to your previous message, I would like to talk a little about the Taib Mahmud factor, as he appears a little too positively in my previous post. I agree that Taib is a factor, but I also agree with you — like what I said in my previous post — that semenanjung politicians like Najib himself, is a further factor. It's really a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. If you are asked to choose between the two, what do you do? Choose both?? This is precisely what the BN political machinery did!!! If the BN machinery had chosen Taib's acolytes (who may not have the political baggage that he has), and said that Najib should play a subsidiary role, then it's only the devil, and we don't have to worry too much about the deep blue sea. But in addition to Taib's acolytes, to let UMNO politicians like Najib lead the charge of the West Malaysian brigade, might prove to be fatal, as it indeed was.
I would also like to say here that UMNO's dream of gaining a foothold in Sarawak has vanished into thin air with the defeat in Sibu. What they did was to estrange a BN stronghold, and let the DAP win a battle that they should not have won. The semenanjung politicians are actually ignorant of the Sarawak mentality. Hantulaut, perhaps by virtue of the fact that he is from the same island — even if he is not a Sarawakian — could give them better advice on the Foochow mentality in Sibu than the advisers of Najib's foolhardy campaign in this by-election.
Everybody know it will be a tight race and the shake is very high.
DAP lack of substances that why they opt to play up religious issues and cleverly portray the underdog tag and portrait themselves victim of BN vast resources to get sympathy from the voters. In every election they are getting richer from donations they get from the people.
But the early counting which show that BN leading more than 2,000 votes two hours before the actual closing time are detrimental to BN. Those polling stations which are PR strong hole were still in the process of voting, and during this critical time PR people panic which they went extra miles to coax the voters/supporters to come out to vote as they are losing, on the other hand those voters who intend to vote for BN stay back, did not make any effort as BN already leading. It will just take 200 votes for PR people to come out and 200 votes for BN to stay back to make the differences. But I think those who stay back are more than 200 votes....
To me, no way DAP can muscle their way to Putrajaya ... at best they are winning only on Chinese majority seat, but one thing is certain, the win will make them arrogant, what do you expect when these gloom and doom stirrers who divide the people in term of race and religion reach your shores....LGE just drum the war cries.
Here in Penang we try hard to kick him out, perhaps he can take over from white hair to become Sarawak Cheap Minister and his father can become Sabah Cheap Minister, that will ideal......
Still Eddy, still Hantu
Still the same bunch of jokers!
I suppose birds of the same feathers flock together in the mud of self-denial.
Rule no. 1 of Political Change:
People don't vote for something, people vote against something!
Governments everywhere get thrown out because they screwed up big time!
Who knows Obama? Who knows Thatcher? Who knows Castro?
These fellas are virtual unknown & zero experience and yet the previous regimes screwed up so bad that people supported them in to power...
Despite you UMNO fellas talking shite to each other and running down PR, so what?!
As for Sarawak, the Chinese big shift will wipe out BN Chinese seats.
Dragging out the Kalimah Allah/Al-Kitab & NCR issues , Christians in the Iban and Bidayuh areas are in mood for revolt.
Even the Melayu and Melanau communities are not happy with Taib Mahmud & family for their blatant in-your-face greed so long.
Sarawak will have a political typhoon coming the state election next year. With that, the state machinery that prop up the BN fixed deposit MPs will be no more!
In Sibu by-election, DAP had a huge 4000 votes lead despite a low-turnout of young, outstation voters working out of state. Total Chinese support as well as some swing among the Iban & Melanau. Even crude attempt to manipulate the postal votes couldn't pull off a BN win on a low-turnout election.
In a wide state election, you don't have enough postal votes to spread around to save the BN seats everywhere in trouble!
~ UnSupporter of Hantu Laut Inconsistencies
UnSHLI, interesting post there..however don't get me wrong I am NOT an UMNO supporter, I am like Bro HL are BN supporters and share BN's power sharing, tolerance and acceptance of races and religions message, in one word BN's inclusiveness.
I am all for good governance and civil liberty based on the Perlembagaan, where there is wrong saya tegur where I can. If the powers that be listens to the small voices like me, very well and good if not then I am not lesser because of it.
In fact if the opposition are not lead by obviously devisive and chauvinistic personalities who only knows how to oppose and create anti government sentiments and create ill will among the races by fanning up religious and racial issues, I am interested to hear what they can offer.
So far after the 2008 election the opposition have yet to show that they can govern any better than BN, the Pakatan have delivered NOTHING tangible or concrete to the rakyat but they have only been politicising issues to create ill sentiments against the BN so that gullible people like you would vote against BN next time.
Yes I am sure in Sarawak DAP/PKR will bring up the issue about Allah/alkitab, pity, this is a question of faith which cannot be resolved even by Lim Kit Siang,Anuar, Hadi or Nik Aziz put together, politics cannot solve the Allah issue, sitting down and rationally talking about it is the BN way and the rational way. The DAP,PAS and PKR are only interested to play the Sarawak Christian sentiments so that like you say the people will vote against the BN. If that is how the opposition wants to play it then fine, the Sarawak people deserves the Government that they voted in next Gen-election. A DAP/PKR/PAS Government do not have a clue on how to govern a multi ethnic multi religious state like Sarawak.
You see UnSHLI, the opposition Pakatan DO NOT SHARE POWER like BN does but as can be seen of the states they control, they tend to DIVIDE POWER. This will in the medium and longer term cause a lot of cracks in their unity and affect their effectiveness to govern look at the cracks in Kedah, Penang, Kelantan and Selangor.
UnSHLI my take is that its too early to even confirm that the little tsunami in the peninsular have reach Sarawak shores just by the results of Sibu byelection which was won by DAP devisively fanning the Allah and Alkitab issue.
Whether it can inflame the other Christian Bumis in Sarawak remains to be seen as in Sibu the Chinese DAP leaders got thru the Chinese Sibu Christians because they speak the same lingo. Religious issues used as a political weapon is like using a flamethrower, it can burn the enemy but leave the person holding the flamethrower exposed to be shot and burnt as well. In Sibu the flamethrower got lucky. In the next Sarawak election he who uses the flamethrower may get burnt instead.
The cool dude CM Taib has been in power for so long not because he is stupid..he is the most politically savvy man second only to Dr Mahathir. The Sibu byelection might just be a testing ground for Sarawak BN. Unlike the MCA or Gerakan, the SUPP showed maturity when they took responsibility for their loss without blaming their partners and that is the one of the good things that have come out for BN in the close fought Sibu by-election.
So UnSHLI not count your chicken before it is hatched. Cheers.
UnSupporter of Hantu Laut Inconsistencies: I would have agreed with you if you talked about some of the Hantulaut's other posts. But not this one. He is pretty neutral here. (Perhaps the same thing could be said about Eddy's responses here, but I take less notice of him: a person like Eddy should set up his own blog, instead of writing long posts supporting the Hantulaut's every view).
Bro Tumbawa, been pondering to set up a blog for some time but I rather like being a commenter and I like Bro HL's posting and as long as he allow my comments in his blog I am OK with that, if you think its too long, you tak baca pun tak apa, ..c'est la vie.
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