Return Of The Oligarch

Hantu Laut

It's really difficult to make out this statement of Mahathir.There seems to be inconsistency in his idea of democracy.Up till now he has been asking for the party to remove the hurdles to allow for more contests in the party and asking Najib to go against Abdullah and to remove him from the premiership.Now when his favourite is being challenged he is accusing other contenders of money politics and asking them to be arrested under the ISA.It looks like he has different strokes for different folks.

There is little doubt he is not happy with Ali Rustam and Muhammad Taib, the two spoilers of an almost perfect equation to politics of the oligarch.

Are we moving back to his old ways?

Down,Down, Down !

Hantu Laut

We have one of the highest wastage of public funds through corruptions and incompetence.It wouldn't be an over-statement to say that at least 30% of taxpayers money are lost to these two evils in government.

We are also blessed by exploitable natural resources that gave us a sound economy that allow us to survive the pilferage,incompetency and inefficiency in the system.The biggest source of government funding comes from taxes and oil revenue.With falling global price of crude oil a big chunk of this revenue would be wiped out requiring the government to look for alternative source of financing for its budget.

If the world markets for crude oil and palm oil do not improve in the near future and with the decline in exports of manufactured goods the government would have a serious budget deficit.The liquidity problem is much more serious than those in government have anticipated.A near negative growth in the following year is not a far-fetched scenario.

China, now the second largest economy after the US, which have had double-digit growth the past few years will face a downturn in its economy soon.With two of the world largest economy slowing down there would be huge decline in demand of commodities including demand for crude oil.How long the recession would last is difficult to guess.Bail-outs in the US have not picked up momentum or showed any improvement to the economy.

Finance Minister and Prime Minister in waiting Najib Tun Razak would have to crack his head to find a solution to the problem.

A recent proposal to sell government assets to raise funds sounds impractical and would be easier said than done.Unless the government is prepared to sell these assets at very low prices there would be few takers.Those with money to buy would look for real bargain.Chances are it would go to cronies even at more depressed price.It would lose future income if income-generating assets are sold.Only loss-making corporations and non-income generating assets should be considered for sale.

Selling government controlled blue chips would be killing the goose that lay the golden eggs.The PM and Finance Minister should not agree to the sales of any of these golden assets in a depressed market.

Worst case scenario, the government may have to trim its development expenditure to reduce the budget deficit.

In October I predicted that the price of crude would fall to around US$50 per barrel before the end of the year in my post "Where Crude Oil Heading For" .The price had tumbled to US$55 in spite of OPEC cut in productions.This means that demand had gone down faster and bigger in volume than OPEC cut in production.

Prolonged period of depressed crude market would spell trouble for Petronas and the Malaysian government spending.

On a lighter note, I find Malaysian generally more interested in politics than the state of the economy.

The good news is prices of consumer goods would go down as well and consumers should be smart to avoid those businesses that are profiteering by not adjusting prices.

The Return To Mahathirism

Hantu Laut

Members of UMNO are beginning to show some political maturity and greater sense of democracy.Gone were the days of Mahathir's autocratic style of leadership where challenge to the top leadership were frown upon and made difficult by changing the party constitution to increase the height of the hurdles making it a daunting task for a challenger to take on the incumbent.

The no challenge concept for the two top positions had given UMNO a stagnated political mindset.Political ideology more suited for the 18th century rather than in today's modern democracy.The party is in dire need of new ideas and new democratic ideals.

Although, I must admit it has worked well during Mahathir's tenure , times are changing, a liberal policy and more freedom should be allowed in the rank and file to choose leaders of their choice.The hurdles should be removed to allow for new crop of political thinkers and leaders to reach the top tiers of the party.

There are new kind of political awareness in the country.People are more conscious of their rights.The old ways will not work anymore, in fact the old ways had worked against the party.The outcome of the 8 March General Elections was the telling sign that Malaysian are generally fed up with the way the country are being run.

With the party nomination of candidates closed, the stage is set for a fierce battle for positions of the Deputy President and Youth Chief, the two most to be closely watched races.Those predicted to reach the chequered flag first may not make it if money politics ruled the day.

In pole position for the deputy president is Muhyiddin Yassin.For the youth chief the leading contender is Mukhriz Mahathir.

Muhyiddin who initially thought it would be plain sailing for him now found himself challenged by two others, Ali Rustam of Melaka and Muhammad Taib of Selangor.Although he is the favourite to win, an upset shouldn't be ruled out by any of the other two contenders.He has been portrayed as the most qualified due to his educational background and better command of the English language.

Speaking good English may not be a criteria to winning party elections and is not the yardstick to judge a person's intelligence.Like any other languages it is just a medium of communication and happened to be widely spoken and understood internationally.

Muhyiddin is also seen as playing it safe and has not been vociferous in pursuing the Malay agenda as much as the others.The other most crucial element in this game is which of the three will throw the most money.To think that only those at the lower level used money to buy favours is blissful ignorance.

In 1987 when Mahathir was challenged by Tengku Razaleigh for the Presidency, Mahathir got three-fourth of the division nomination but only won by a measly majority of 43 votes.In his case the huge nomination he got was meaningless and misleading, he won by the skin of his teeth.Will Muhyiddin face the same situation or worse still loses out to the so-called non-starters.

If money and return to Mahathirism are not the deciding factors than Muhyiddin would win handsomely but if money is the object and the delegates wanted a balance between Mahathirism and Pak Lah's openess policy than Muhyiddin may have a challenge on his hand.

With Najib as President and Muhyiddin as Deputy President, if he won the election, the return to Mahathirism is imminent as both candidates were endorsed by him.Greater emphasis would be given to the Malay agenda,ossifying the social contracts and die-casting the ketuanan Melayu.Najib would not make the same fatal mistakes as Pak Lah, ostracising Mahathir can be deadly as Pak Lah has just found out a little too late.

One only need to see the number of hits the former premier gets for his blog to know how popular he is out of office than when he was in office.From reading the comments on his blog one can safely assume that majority of his fans are in their youth.Since its inception some eight months ago his blog has received 9.4 million hits.In comparison the Deputy Prime Minister who started his blog recently didn't seem to attract that many comments and has no hit meter to show the traffic to his blog.

Mahathir still has widespread support in UMNO and had been the catalyst in the forthcoming departure of Pah Lah as Prime Minister and President of the party.Over the past three decades he has serially destroyed the politicial career of Musa Hitam,Tengku Razaleigh,Anwar Ibrahim and now Abdullah Badawi.

After his departure as PM, Abdullah is unlikely to be playing significant role in the party.

Anwar Ibrahim had made a political comeback due to a weakened UMNO but as good as it gets he would likely be staying in the opposition for a long while or worse in prison.His sodomy case is still hanging over his head like the sword of Damocles.

His son Mukriz whose political future looked bleak when he followed his father's foot step and started to decry Abdullah's incompetence after the March General Election has now taken a sudden upswing in support from the Youth wing of the party.He is leading in nomination for the post of Youth Chief and is expected to win against Khir Toyo and Khairy Jamaluddin, the bright rising star that's beginning to dim and falling out of favour with the rank and file because he soon won't be the Prime Minister's son-in-law.

Ironically, among the three, Khir Toyo seems to be the most popular if blogs were to play party to winning an election.His blog attracts hundreds of comments and have had reasonably good hits while the other two have very few comments and didn't install visible site meters. Khairy posted most comments good or adverse,Mukriz only posted selected comments in praise of him.

Some called him the most hated man in the country, aggressive,arrogant and too smart for his own good.Khairy Jamaluddin had been accused of pulling the rugs from under other UMNO warlord's feet and stole their lucrative contracts.How much truth to these allegations ? Khairy called it an 'urban legend' in his recent interview with the Star newspaper.He has also denied his ambition to be PM by 40.True or not he certainly has what it takes and UMNO should not ignore his ability to return as Khairy the son of Jamaluddin and not as Khairy the son-in-law of Abdullah Badawi.

The real fight may be between Mukriz and Khir Toyo but things can change as they approach nearer elections day.Mukriz may have the highest number of nominations but, unlike his father, he lacks the grit and forcefulness of a leader.When proposed to a debate with Khairy he refused to take up the challenge and said:

"Pemilihan UMNO adalah soal keluarga dimana kita tak seharusnya berbincang mengenainya untuk tontonan umum, lebih -lebih lagi untuk tatapan pembangkang. Perjuangan UMNO ialah sesuatu yang tersirat dan ianya tak perlu dibahas-bahaskan secara terbuka dan disensasikan.Kita menggunakan pemilihan ini untuk memperkukuhkan parti, dan perlu elak dari membuat sebarang perkara yang mampu melemahkan parti tatkala kita dalam keadaan yang agak tidak kuat berbanding dulu. Dengan pencalonan yang sedang dilaksanakan dan pengundian yang bakal dijalankan, terbukti perwakilan dah kenal calon-calon dengan rapat dan matang untuk buat pilihan".

Ikhlas,

Mukhriz Mahathir

With the return to Mahatirism there would be greater emphasis on the Malay agenda and tightening of the noose on the liberal opposition currently allowed in the country.

White Perspective Of Black America

Barack Obama’s victory is a milestone, but life for most black Americans remains tough. We report on the big challenges facing the president-elect

Can Barack Obama really make a difference to the broken lives of so many of his fellow African-Americans?

Tony Allen-Mills

As the first African-American children to take up residence in the White House, Malia and Sasha Obama can look forward to a gilded life of elite schools, the finest healthcare, unbounded career opportunities and – for now at least – perhaps the most exciting prospect of all: the new puppy their father has promised.

When Barack Obama’s captivating children skipped into the limelight alongside him as history was made in Chicago last Tuesday night, Sasha, 7, waved happily at the ecstatic crowd as Malia, 10, strode serenely alongside their mother Michelle.

For a few moments, as this strikingly attractive family group basked together in the roar of election victory, the magnitude of Obama’s achievement was written on the faces of his wife and children: a black family en route to Washington, to the finest address in the land.

“Each of us will always remember this moment,” exulted Henry Louis Gates Jr, one of America’s foremost African-American historians. “My colleagues and I laughed and shouted, whooped and hollered, hugged each other and cried.”

Yet as the euphoria inevitably gives way to the harsh realities of recession and war, Obama’s young daughters may come to symbolise more than a great moment of racial progress. Their privileged lives will serve as a constant reminder of the lingering inequalities of American life, and the scale of the challenge that Obama now faces as he attempts to turn election promise into lasting social change.

“In this country – of all countries – no child’s destiny should be determined before he takes his first step,” Obama declared during the campaign.

“No little girl’s future should be confined to the neighbourhood she was born into.”

For the vast majority of African-American schoolgirls, having a father to care for them at all is a rare gift. More than 70% of black babies born in America last year were born to single mothers. A young black woman growing up in America faces a list of disadvantages so daunting that even Obama, in a speech on urban America in Washington last July, asked with a note of disbelief in his voice: “How can a country like this allow it?” A black baby girl is more than twice as likely to die in infancy as a white child. She is more likely to contract childhood diseases such as asthma and diabetes. She will be more prone to obesity and will most probably end up in an underfunded and understaffed state school, where her grades will be significantly lower than for white students.

A black woman faces a life expectancy that is five years shorter than for white women. Throughout her life she will be paid on average less than two-thirds of a white man’s wage for her job; she may have trouble finding a husband who has not been to jail, and more problems finding a house in a neighbourhood free of drug-dealers. She is more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer and will not live as long after diagnosis as white women in a similar condition.

These are some of the many inequalities that Obama has pledged to address through his sweeping proposals for universal healthcare, education reform and redistribution of wealth. Yet it was clear last week, as black communities across the country rejoiced at his election, that many African-Americans have hopelessly unrealistic expectations of what their new president might achieve at a time of severe economic retrenchment.

Even before the votes were counted, Peggy Joseph was in little doubt about what an Obama presidency would mean. Gushing with enthusiasm at an Obama rally, she told one television interviewer: “I won’t have to pay for my [petrol] any more. I won’t have to work to pay my mortgage. He’s going to help me.”

In Washington on election night, Isaac Johnson was wandering around the Eastern market in a daze, tears running down his cheeks. “It’s all changed, man,” he kept saying. “We’ll get respect now, we’ll get our dream.”

Spike Lee, the African-American film director, declared the election a “seismic shift”. Oprah Winfrey, the television chat show queen, opened her postelection show on Wednesday by screaming “Whoooooo!” over and over again. Read more.......