Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Anwar Ibrahim Exposed

Hantu Laut

With so much talk about Anwar taking over the government soon, it got me pondering the past weeks on how he is going to get around doing this rather difficult task and whether I should have this polemic on my blog and infuse a nuclear meltdown among Anwar's impervious supporters and suffer the aftermath of a nasty fallout.

I think I shall take my chances and let it be. After all I wouldn't be getting physical blows from those scurrilous guttersnipes, maybe, at worse a busted ego which evanescent rather quickly to do any harm to my aged faculty.

The jungles of the worldwide web are full of spins,spins,spins and just about everyone with access to the internet are spinning something or another.They see it as their job to needle,poke,manipulate and dissect politicians with some having no qualms about spreading rumours, disinformation and innuendo as one guttersnipes called 'george k' did when he came to this blog and smeared my nice clean white sheet with his shitty dirty fabricated story of 'slush' accounts of our former prime minister and his family thinking I would easily fall for his ruse and posted that heap of rubbish on my blog.

Despite all those earnest declarations by Anwar of him taking over the government latest by September this year there seemed to be something missing in his calculations of what he called "we have the numbers". There appears to be no logical progression to those numbers under the present circumstances.

Anwar may have to wait until the next elections to try capture the federal government.His sudden realization that it would be almost next to impossible for him to takeover the government this term unless there is a big exodus from almost all of the non-UMNO(United Malay National Organisation) and PBB components of the BN(Barisan Nasional)

The biggest stumbling block for him would be MCA(Malaysia Chinese Association) and PBB(Parti Bangsa Bersatu) in Sarawak who are not likely to switch camp at this moment. That's why he has changed his tune by saying that some lawmakers from MCA are going to join his Pakatan Rakyat. Without the full thrust of MCA and those from Sabah and Sarawak, he wouldn't have a chance of taking over the government.He may get only some of those from Sabah and Sarawak and, maybe, some from MCA, but wouldn't be enough to grab the trophy from Abdullah.It is not as easy as many of us would like to think.

With the exception of Yong Teck Lee of SAPP, the other leaders in the BN components may not want to jeopardise their already well-rewarded positions. Only those who has not worked out the risk factor and those disgruntled or has nothing to lose would cross over to Pakatan.

The maximum he could get from Sabah and Sarawak would be from the non-UMNO and non- PBB lawmakers which at best can only give him 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak getting a maximum of 26, not enough to form a simple majority. Without massive defections from MCA he has very little chance of taking over the government.

MCA has 15 parliamentary seats , MIC 3 and Gerakan 2.He has to take at least two-thirds of those seats including the 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak to have a comfortable majority.It is not going to be an easy task for him as he has made it clear,unless it is spuriously a lie, he is not offering any monetary benefits or positions to those who wish to cross over.

Politics in Malaysia and elsewhere is all about money, positions and status.Even those who started with a noble value would eventually ended up licking their expired nobility.It would be likened to 'looking for a needle in a haystack' to find a politician with strong conviction to only serve the people and nation and Anwar should know this, he came from the same political school.

Would MCA get better treatment if it joins PR(Pakatan Rakyat) with arch rival DAP who has 28 seats compared to MCA 15? assuming MCA moved over en-bloc.With the two tigers in DAP, Karpal Singh and Lim Kit Siang, MCA would be food for the tigers.

The political landscape would take a drastic and scary change if MCA and all the other non-UMNO parliamentarians crossed over to Pakatan Rakyat. It would be completely new dawn in Malaysian politics and the end of 'ketuanan Melayu' that our former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad kept reminding the Malays to safeguard.

Below would be the scenario if Anwar can successfully wrestles the federal government from Abdullah on the assumption that no UMNO and PBB parliamentarians joined in the crossover.

Pakatan Rakyat new profile:

Non-Malay seats
------------------
DAP 28
Sabah(non-UMNO) 11
Sarawak(non-PBB) 16
PKR(non-Malay) 11
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20
--------------------------------
Total 86

Malay seats
------------------

PKR 20
PAS 23
----------------------------------
Total 43

That would give him 129 seats, just enough to form a weak coalition and for the first time a government without Malay majority, a true Bangsa Malaysia government widely espoused by Pakatan Rakyat and many of my fellow bloggers.

Unless Anwar has other formula he would have to be patient and wait his time until the next elections to have a go again at the coveted title.

The above scenario is based on UMNO and PBB not losing any of their parlimentarian to the crossover and would stay as opposition until the next elections.

Another scenario that may not be too far-fetched is the making of a new and more powerful all-Malay coalition comprising UMNO, PAS, PKR and PBB with 147 seats in Parliament.

On the question of offering Sabah 20% royalty whether the Prime Minister is empowered to change the rate of royalty payment to oil producing states without making amendments to the 'Petroleum Development Act' I have absolutely no idea.

Section 7 (which appears below) of the Act seems to empower the PM authority over certain things but had no mention of the royalty rates to the states.

Section 7:Power to make regulations

7. The Prime Minister may make regulations for the purpose of
carrying into effect the provisions of this Act and, without prejudice
to the generality of the foregoing, such regulations may, in particular,
provide for—

(a) the conduct of or the carrying on of—
(i) any business or service relating to the exploration,
exploitation, winning or obtaining of petroleum;
(ii) any business involving the manufacture and supply
of equipment used in the petroleum industry;
(iii) downstream activities and development relating
to petroleum;

(b) the marketing and distribution of petroleum and its products;

(c) penalties in the form of a fine not exceeding one hundred
thousand ringgit or imprisonment not exceeding five years
or both for breach of any of the regulations and for noncompliance
with any term or condition of any licence,
permission or approval issued or granted under the regulations;

(d) the forfeiture of anything used or intended to be used in the
commission of any such breach or non-compliance.

If the power to change the rate of royalty payment is not included in the above section than Anwar can only effect the change by amendment to the 'Petroleum Development Act', which would need two-thirds majority in Parliament, which he wouldn't have.

Unless such power is granted under the following section:

Section 4:Cash payment by the Corporation

4. In return for the ownership and the rights, powers, liberties
and privileges vested in it by virtue of this Act, the Corporation
shall make to the Government of the Federation and the Government
of any relevant State such cash payment as may be agreed between
the parties concerned.

Now I understand why Abdullah and Najib are not the least bit shaken or worried about Anwar's claims.

7 comments:

Edi神 said...

indeed a mammoth task but we needed the change.!

Jeff said...

There is a talk with Ku li and Muhyiddin, himself a former Anwar supporter. Ku li has got 7 UMNO MPs on his side, Anwar has 6 UMNO MPs from Peninsular including a cabinet minister who was an Anwar loyalist before. You add to UMNO Sabah and non-UMNO MPs in Sarawak and Sabah plus few in the Peninsular. Anwar is said to have offered Ku li 4 years of PM-ship, then he will take over and in those 4 years, Anwar will be busy building PKR for it to emerge stronger nationally in the next elections.


One thing that needs to be taken into consideration is the fact that UMNO elections are around the corner and it is a zero sum game. Those who will be dissatisfied will move to PKR alongside Ku li and get their deals there. This is politics and there is no love lost between UMNO and Anwar. However, even if we have more non-Malays MPs in PR, still Malays and Bumis will maintain 65% of the cabinet including all that's related to Financial and Security matters. I have no doubt about that. Furthermore, if we go for elections, Pakatan will do better than was the case in March 08. Therefore, PR fears no election and this time Sabah and Sarawak can't afford to vote BN.


Coming to the royalty, yes, the PM has control over the changing of its articles, just like Mahathir changed the Terengganu Royalty article using Parliament and took away from them. So, Anwar can change for Sabah, I guess, but I'm not sure if it is 2/3 majority status. And if that's case, he can use it against Sabah MPs in the next elections accusing them of "denying Sabah more royalty." And that will spell doom for all the incumbent MPs. They are aware of that. Let's see how it works.

SM said...

HL,

The reason why Pak Lah (or should I say KJ?!) and Najib (or should I say Rosmah Mansor?!) are not worried about Anwar is because they are still in "La La" land!
Making excuses & blaming everyone (but themselves) & their donkeys for the last GE!
They are still talking about who's going to lead UMNO & all indications point to the fact that they will continue to do so until after the UMNO Elections this December (or until Sept 16th, when they will suddenly wake up & find that Anwar is the new PM!).
I say good riddance to bad rubbish. The BN has had a chance for the last 50 years. Let's give Anwar & the PR a chance. if they screw up, we can always change them out in the next GE (but how can anyone be worse than the BN & UMNO?!).
I say God speed to Anwar & the PR!!!!!

Hantu Laut said...

edi,
Sometimes,the unexpected can happen.Politics have many unknown factor, we can only speculate.

Hantu Laut said...

jeff,

As I have indicated I have not included the UMNO equation into my speculation.If Anwar can get some of UMNO MPs than he has very good chance.

I believe he has some MPs who would want to cross but at the moment not sufficient to form a majority.

Things may change once he is elected to parliament.

Hantu Laut said...

SM,
As much as we wanted a new government,sometimes, we are powerless even under a democratic system.

Look at Zimbabwe, democracy is a joke,Mugabe rigged and cheated in the elections.

This is not Anwar bashing, but a reality check whether he really can take over the federal government as he claims.Many dates had been given but nothing had come out so far.To be fair to him,maybe we should wait until Sept and see what happen then.

Edi神 said...

what does the future hold for malaysia?

Dooms??