Sunday, June 21, 2009

Will PAS Snuggles Up To UMNO's duvet ?

Hantu Laut

Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad is opposed to the third bridge linking Johor and Singapore and unity talk between UMNO and PAS.


He has, in no uncertain term, made his feeling known that a unity government comprising only Malays is not good for the nation and he should be lauded for it.

However, looking at the position that UMNO is in now, and the lame and ineffectual MCA, MIC and Gerakan, do they have a choice?

Majority of Chinese and Indians voted for Pakatan's candidates in the 12th General Elections and needless to say the support from these two communities have faltered even further and the outcome of the 13th General Elections would be a forgone conclusion that Gerakan, MCA and MIC would be as dead as the dodo.These three parties are goners if they don't shape up now.

Instead of going out to the field to woo back their supporters the three beleaguered components of the BN are mired with infighting and leadership tussles.The excessive desire for their over-staying leaders to hang on to power, no matter what the consequence, is most appalling.

People like MIC President Samy Velu has been there longest, longer than the longest serving prime minister but still refuses to let go despite having been rejected by the people.His continued presence as President of MIC actually kills the party chance of recovering from its massive loss of support and shocking defeat.

The Indian community have rejected him and deserted the party in droves. What left of the party are losers and political stragglers hoping for miracles. In fact, the BN should have pronounced MIC and Gerakan dead.What's the point of flogging two dead horses when you know you can't depend on them to win the race.Between the two there are only 5 parliamentary seats at stake, MIC 3 and Gerakan 2.

MCA is also mired in leadership crisis and some of its leaders were implicated in the PKFZ(Port Klang Free Zone) scandal.The leaders in MCA should consider merging with Gerakan to form a bigger Chinese party if they want to take on DAP at the next general elections.It will be tough going for MCA to lure back the Chinese but miracles can and do happen sometimes.At the moment MCA has 15 parliamentary seats against DAP 28.

I agree with Mahathir that a Malay unity government is not good for the nation but politics has no hard and fast rules, it's about survival.The end justify the means.Its a case of Hobson's choice, you have many options but there is only one that can guarantee your survival.

Najib is in a dillema, his first priority is how to win the next elections.To stick to the present formula where the other partners are on their death throes or take a gamble on a new formula?

Can the Malays achieve political homogeneity ? It's a scary idea but not beyond comprehension. If you go by population and demarcation of the electoral boundaries, it is not impossible for Malays to have homogeneous political power.There are about 136-140 predominantly Malay seats throughout the nation and with some marginal seats the number could increase even more.

The non-Malay seats in the March 2008 Election are shown below:

Peninsula Malaysia
------------------------
DAP 28
MCA 15
MIC 2
Gerakan 3
PKR(non-Malay) 11
---------------------------
Total 59

Sabah
(non-Malays) 11

Sarawak
(non-Malays) 16
---------------------------
Total 86

UMNO biggest problem is in Peninsula Malaysia where the Malays are divided between PAS and UMNO with majority still in favour of UMNO.

If Sabah and Sarawak delivered the same performance as they did in March 2008 and the Malays are re-united in Peninsula than the Malays can even have two-third majority.

Although, I personally do not subscribe to such an idea and believe political power should be shared among the races, I wouldn't remotely rule out the possibility of it happening if PAS decide to abandon Pakatan Rakyat.

If PAS stays with Pakatan until the next general elections and insisted on contesting majority of Malay seats there is a likelihood it would become the dominant partner in Pakatan easing out PKR and Anwar Ibrahim chance at the premiership.

Being the leading partner PAS will take the prime spot and play the same role as UMNO now.PKR only has 20 Malays MP seats at present and 11 non-Malay seats and due to it multi-racial nature the Malays are not likely to give it more seats than PAS.


Will PAS snuggles up to UMNO's duvet?


Much depend on PAS.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why would PAS join UMNO and b a slave dog party with no say ie become like what MCA, MIC and Gerakan has become.

Staying in Pakatan gives it a real voice.

eddy said...

I would agree with Dr Mahathir that a unity Government comprising of only Malays(UMNO and PAS) is not good for a multiethnic and multireligious nation like ours it would be a recipe for political chaos. I think the BN power sharing concept is tried and tested and overall is good but need further reforms to adjust to the demands of the population which is growing and becoming more educated, more aware of their rights and the rights of others and more urbane.

MCA,Gerakan, MIC and PPP just need to buck up and get down on their knees to work harder in the next three years to gain the trust of their members and certainly asking "foot in the mouth question" such as the one in a political leader's blog "whether MCA should consider leaving BN", is a step in the negative direction and would not help them at all. If they do not wake up, with all their infighting, I predict the results of the next GE for MCA,Gerakan and MIC will be worse than the last one they had in March 2008. Ong, Tsu Koon and probably Subramaniam will have to be made senators first if they are to be appointed Ministers if at all.

Everybody else in BN include UMNO have started on their reforms albeit a bit slow at the start but it will gain momentum soon enough and the openness of UMNO on behalf of BN to talk to PAS is encouraging however first and foremost everbody have a plan for political survival, MCA,Gerakan and MIC is still in sixes and sevens so better buck up, better start moving or miss the boat people.

vinnan said...

What makes you think all of UMNO will welcome PAS. It is people like you who perpetuate the racial divide with your simplistic race based analysis. Getting PAS and UMNO to share power in Kelantan during the 1970's is one thing but getting UMNO members to share power when it involves their political and financial interest at the national level is another. UMNO has never been a party which shares real power. In Kelantan, it did not take long for UMNO to stab PAS in the back and kick out PAS with the complicity of the palace. That is why at the grassroot level most PAS members see the power grab in Perak as another UMNO injustice perpetrated against PAS. If PAS is stupid enough to get into a so-called unity government with UMNO they will be screwed again by UMNO. Short term UMNO gets the 2/3 majority it wants, long term UMNO will turn many parts of the Malay rural heartland into PAS country forever like what happened in Kelantan.

fearless said...

Isn't Mahathir famous for shifting goal post!!!

UMNO and Mahathir are to be blamed for non-Malay supporting Pakatan strongly during the 12th General Election. The many racial remarks from UMNO's people and Mahathir's mismanagement of the country and policies which Pah Lak fail to correct are the main reason the people punish BN. Mahathir also want Pah Lak BN to lose badly to prove him right, it a matter of time he point his gun to Najib, perhaps already set in motion.

Najib have begun to set his priority right, that is liberalisation to bring in investors, he should continue to do that and not turn the clock backwards to the demand of some racialist.

Hantu Laut said...

vinnan,
That shows the kind of people you and most Pakatan supporters are like,intolerant,ignorant,misinformed and incapable of grasping with reality.You are the proverbial 'katak dibawah tempurong'

UMNO has never been a party which shares real power......Which history book those in Pakatan gave you to rea? Have you seen a 100% Malay government in this country since independence? No Indians, no Chinese in the cabinet?

The Malays have been more than benevolent to share power with the other races and yet people like you who are so blinded by hate, you could hardly see beyond your nose.

Instead of making nonsensical remark like "it people like you who perpetuate the racial divide with your simplistic race based analysis", you should have, if there is any smartness left in you, dispute my analysis by giving your argument, fact and figures that I was wrong.

That's the whole idea of blogging, where we can cross the intellectual swords.

Anonymous said...

Actually its you who dont understand what the term 'share power' means.

Nonsense ministries given is called sharing power?

The 5 most powerful ministries in the Cabinet in rank is the Prime Minister, Finance, Home, Education and Defence!!!

When do you think a chinese , an indian, will ever take one of these Ministries?

Hantu Laut said...

Anonymous,
Where you get the idea those are powerful ministries.

Sorry, I forgot, you are a parrot, you just repeat what the opposition politicians says.Don't have your own mind.

You think the Ministry of Works and Health is less powerful.There are more money spent here than many other ministries.Just take a look at PKFZ under MCA care, what do you see? Mind-boggling billion squandered.Yet, idiot like you say UMNO refused to share power and corrupted.

Go back to school, little boy.

vinnan said...

The PKFZ scandal falls under corruption not bona fife government expenditure you idiot.