Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Can The Malays Lose Political Power ?

Hantu Laut

How accurate is opinion poll? The recent Merdeka Centre poll result shows that majority of Malays want to continue keeping the crutches.

According to the survey 60 percent of Malays are in favour of keeping the NEP while 40 percent rejected the idea.

In every opinion poll there is what they termed as "response bias", simply put it means the respondents do not reflect their true beliefs.Some, are under social pressure not to accede to unpopular answers hence giving false returns.

While 60 percent say they want to maintain the NEP which I believe has higher degree of accuracy than the 40 percent who were not in the affirmative and where I believe lies most of the "response bias."

Hypothetically, the result should have been higher than 60 percent if the respondents had been in all honesty stayed true to their hearts.

The Malays in the street responses would depend on how the questions or the wordings of such questions are presented to them and most would hardly understand how the NEP can benefit them.The "response bias" would not have come from this strata of the Malay society it would have come from those in the higher strata, the Malay elites, where false sense of self-worth is greater than it would have existed in the lower level.So, the higher you go the less accurate the feedback.

Therefore, those wanting to keep the crutches should be more than 60 percent.

I believe majority of the 40 percent would have come from "constitutional Malays."

In his article the 'Trust Deficit' Jema Khan, a constitutional Malay himself, expanded his opinion on the impossible loss of Malay political power. The relevant paragraph appears below.

"It seems illogical to many that the Malays can lose power in Malaysia. Yes, Umno can lose but the Malay power is nonetheless firmly entrenched. Not only are the Malays 60 per cent of the electorate but the civil service, police, military, monarchy and judiciary are overwhelmingly Malay dominated".

While I agree with him UMNO is not synonymous with Malay power and should not be viewed as such, nonetheless, the erosion of Malay power is possible. The realities, in our midst, are Penang and Perak.If the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur was still in Selangor than it would have joined Penang as a state not under Malay majority control.

Although, total loss of Malay power may not occur in the very near future the diminution at federal level is and should not be a figment of one's imagination, the rare possibility is not all that remote and is even possible at the next general elections.

The loss of most of non-Malay parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak combine with the loss of most non-Malay parliamentary seats in Peninsula Malaysia would weaken the Malay ruling power irrespective of whether it is UMNO, PAS or PKR.The Malays could become a minority in the coalition as was the case in Penang.

Sabah and Sarawak would become very crucial states in the next GE.Losing most of the non-Malay seats would put the BN in a grave situation.It is as good as total loss for the BN if the support for the opposition stays intact or improved further in Peninsula Malaysia and Sabah and Sarawak supplementing additional seats to the oppositions.

Below is a very possible scenario if Malays are still divided in the voting pattern.

Non-Malay seats
------------------
DAP 28
Sabah(non-UMNO) 11
Sarawak(non-PBB) 16
PKR(non-Malay) 11
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20 (assuming they lost all seats to PR)
--------------------------------
Total 86

Malay seats
------------------

PKR 20
PAS 23
----------------------------------
Total 43 (assuming both PAS and PKR maintained the present seats)

The Pakatan coalition could garner 129 seats or more forming a weak coalition and a government without Malay majority for the first time. If majority of Malay votes shifted to PAS or PKR than Malay dominance would stay.

The prime mover of the oppositions is no more Anwar Ibrahim and PKR, it is Lim Kit Siang and DAP, including helping to garner non-Muslim votes for PAS.Unlike PKR, riddled with problems of infighting and defections, DAP and PAS are very focus and emboldened to fight to the end.DAP is actively pushing its agenda in Sabah and Sarawak.Anwar Ibrahim is done. He self-immolated his political career by his political doublespeak.

UMNO can only win and continue with its autocratic power over the nation if the Malays are united.The 'bangkit Melayu' movement and the birth of Perkasa was brought about in furtherance of Malay dominance.

Rewinding the clock back to 26 years ago it reminds me how wrong one could get with political prediction, an uncle, a businessman and part politician once told me that the Kadazans in Sabah, because of their minority status, would never be able to rule Sabah.He was proven wrong, less than two years later PBS and Joseph Pairin took over the rein of the Sabah state government and ruled the state for two terms and would have been there longer if not for UMNO political manoeuvring and gerrymandering of the electoral boundaries. The Chinese was the kingmaker then and chose to side with the Kadazans.

Berjaya, a multi-racial party and component of the BN led by Harris Salleh was blown to smithereens, winning only 6 seats in the 48-seat state assembly.

In Sabah and Sarawak there are concerted effort by the oppositions and those within the BN/UMNO to remove both Musa Aman and Taib Mahmud from helming the next government by exposing acts of corruptions.

Taib has been exposed in numerous blogs to own expensive real estate in a number of foreign countries and Musa Aman has had his cronies hauled up by MACC for interrogations as reported in numerous blogs. Both Chief Ministers delivered almost all BN seats that saved the BN from becoming history in the March 2008 General Elections.Across the South China Sea in the Peninsula the BN lost 5 states to the much disorganised oppositions at that time.


There is now talks in blogs and coffee shops of selective prosecution by Najib's administration and the imminent replacement of Musa by Shafie Apdal, a Sabahan of Suluk extract and the ousting of Taib in the next GE.

How true is the story is hard to tell but doing away with Taib and Musa at this juncture would have its dire effect on winning the states in the next GE.

It is common knowledge that in Sabah and Sarawak's politics money speaks louder than words and the last GE was testimony of this fact why the two states can deliver almost 100 percent of the seats.The sad result in Peninsula Malaysia and lost of 5 states was attributed to that much of the money never reached the ground.

Former Prime Minister Mahathir has, time and again, says that the Malays could lose political power without elaborating.Some Malays think he is talking cock.The non-Malays think he is racist.I think he is being frank and called a spade a spade while the fashionable Malays want to swallow their pride and believe in the invincibility of Malay powers.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hmmm... now that the USA is helmed by a minority black, the whites majority has lost power?

Constitutionally the non Malays can never be PM in Malaysia. So why is there fear and scaremongering?

Y1

SM said...

HL,

So much for the 1-Malaysia concept! Spend millions on PR exercise for 1-Malaysia but deep down it's all talk, talk, talk! We're still talking about Malays, Chinese & Indians!
While the world is moving on Malaysia is still deeply entrenched in the BN Racists' policies!
Mahatir being frank? Yes, maybe...but instead of talking about uniting the various races he's still on about Malay Political Power! Absolute power corrupts & that's what Mahatir wants to hold on to.

eddy said...

Bro maybe we are thinking too much based on race. I think whoever is in power now or the future should really seriously look into the integration of all races in Malaysia. We are a nation seriously divided by race.

We should all make an effort to emulate Indonesia and Thailand where race is never an issue, why? because they have a mandatory one school system for all where the young of all races intermingle from very early age up to the university and beyond because they can read, speak and write in one language their national language.Where generally everybody accepts and understands each other. Mark my word, after their internal politics are sorted out Thailand and Indonesia will go past Malaysia in no time.

I am all for a one school system,no vernacular, no religious based, no international schools (except for expatriates only), just one school system where Bahasa Melayu will be the main language, Maths and Science be taught in English and a student elect to learn their mother tongue language Mandarin or Tamil etc. If this education system is in place we will be on the road to integration where one day race does not matter.

On another note, Y1, our Perlembagaan does not say that only a Malay can be Prime Minister anybody who commands and have support of the majority in the Parliament can. However there are the States Constitutions like in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu,Pahang, Perak,Selangor and Johor where the Menteri Besar must be Malay. That's why in Perak last time YB Ngeh cannot become MB of Perak eventhough DAP had the most seat in the loose Pakatan coalition.

Anyway Bro, just thinking out a loud, wouldn't a non Malay PM be good for the majority Malays/Bumis as definitely the PM will have to work 100 times harder to please the demands of the majority to make sure he is the PM for some time. Indeed he would be labelled a racist, dictator and a bigot if he do not work hard enough for the betterment of the majotity. Hey, why not?

Anonymous said...

Agree with SM - to stop racism we must act as if race does not exist. Najib, say NO to RM 1b to Chinese schools! Say yes to RM 1b for KEBANGSAAN schools!

Boss Coffee

Hantu Laut said...

eddy,
I am not thinking too much about anything on racial line, I am only expressing my opinion what I think is the reality of politics in this country and one we must work to change.

We have to face the reality that UMNO can only survive on Malay support now.THe other races have abandoned the BN which is the backbone of UMNO survival.

I would love to see this country without racial barriers but that's not the reality.

eddy said...

Your comments are acknowledged Bro, and I believed Najib also knows that BN cannot survive on Malay votes thru UMNO alone. That is why he has come up with the 1Malaysia idea.

I think Najib has many aces up his sleeve yet and you know it because the DPM is playing the Malay card to balance the 1Malaysia card that Najib is playing now. You know its OK still as Dr Mahathir has not started a full frontal assault against Najib like he did against Dollah last time nor do I think that Dr Mahathir will do so anytime soon. Anyway the BN is not that weak Bro, the Pakatan leaders underestimate the BN at their own peril.

As far as the Chinese votes are concerned Dr Chua had said that the BN Government is doing a delicate balancing job and its impossible to satisfy the needs of everybody even the majority Malays. He said the Chinese are not so politically naive that they would think that if another Government comes into power that all their demands can be satisfied. I agree with him and I believe that in a multi-cultural multi-religious country like ours NOBODY will be satisfied 100% and I believe Anwar, Kit Siang and Hj Hadi knows that very well also.

Also, PAS and DAP in Pakatan is like oil and water, its physically impossible for them to mix, there will be a point where because of their very divergent views on an Islamic State they will have to part ways.

In fact under the circumstances now and your scenario, I see PAS getting more their way if they become independent of either Pakatan or BN in the next election. Look at the British elections..SDP with their small pool could form a Government with the Conservatives when they could choose Labour if they wanted too.

Then again while we talk about the Malays being disunited, we ought to go back to History in 1946 when the Brits wanted to form the Malayan Union..they did not expect the politically and class divided Malays then, to be united against the British and the Malayan Union, did they. The political capacity of the Malays to be united should not be under rated.

Anonymous said...

Ah thanks Eddy, I stand corrected. I cant see the Agong appointing a non Malay as PM actually, whatever the constitution says. I think the Malay majority ( and I am quite sure the Malay seats will be the majority of the house) will not be able to accept that.

Y1

PRAY,IT WORKS. joe's blog said...

"We have to face the reality that UMNO can only survive on Malay support now.THe other races have abandoned the BN which is the backbone of UMNO survival." (In your reply to eddy)

When umno had the support of all the races it blew that by corrupting its own members and not taking care of the rakyat

eddy said...

Bro HL..some correction in the UK its not "SDP" its the "Liberal Democrats" actually.

Y1, you never know Bro, I tell you the majority Malays in Malaysia are a very tolerant people.

SM said...

Eddy,

SPOT ON bro! You are correct & I fully agree, on ALL points.
However, we ALL know we won't get what you suggested as long as the BN are in power!