How accurate is opinion poll? The recent Merdeka Centre poll result shows that majority of Malays want to continue keeping the crutches.
According to the survey 60 percent of Malays are in favour of keeping the NEP while 40 percent rejected the idea.
In every opinion poll there is what they termed as "response bias", simply put it means the respondents do not reflect their true beliefs.Some, are under social pressure not to accede to unpopular answers hence giving false returns.
While 60 percent say they want to maintain the NEP which I believe has higher degree of accuracy than the 40 percent who were not in the affirmative and where I believe lies most of the "response bias."
Hypothetically, the result should have been higher than 60 percent if the respondents had been in all honesty stayed true to their hearts.
The Malays in the street responses would depend on how the questions or the wordings of such questions are presented to them and most would hardly understand how the NEP can benefit them.The "response bias" would not have come from this strata of the Malay society it would have come from those in the higher strata, the Malay elites, where false sense of self-worth is greater than it would have existed in the lower level.So, the higher you go the less accurate the feedback.
Therefore, those wanting to keep the crutches should be more than 60 percent.
I believe majority of the 40 percent would have come from "constitutional Malays."
In his article the 'Trust Deficit' Jema Khan, a constitutional Malay himself, expanded his opinion on the impossible loss of Malay political power. The relevant paragraph appears below.
"It seems illogical to many that the Malays can lose power in Malaysia. Yes, Umno can lose but the Malay power is nonetheless firmly entrenched. Not only are the Malays 60 per cent of the electorate but the civil service, police, military, monarchy and judiciary are overwhelmingly Malay dominated".
While I agree with him UMNO is not synonymous with Malay power and should not be viewed as such, nonetheless, the erosion of Malay power is possible. The realities, in our midst, are Penang and Perak.If the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur was still in Selangor than it would have joined Penang as a state not under Malay majority control.
Although, total loss of Malay power may not occur in the very near future the diminution at federal level is and should not be a figment of one's imagination, the rare possibility is not all that remote and is even possible at the next general elections.
The loss of most of non-Malay parliamentary seats in Sabah and Sarawak combine with the loss of most non-Malay parliamentary seats in Peninsula Malaysia would weaken the Malay ruling power irrespective of whether it is UMNO, PAS or PKR.The Malays could become a minority in the coalition as was the case in Penang.
Sabah and Sarawak would become very crucial states in the next GE.Losing most of the non-Malay seats would put the BN in a grave situation.It is as good as total loss for the BN if the support for the opposition stays intact or improved further in Peninsula Malaysia and Sabah and Sarawak supplementing additional seats to the oppositions.
Below is a very possible scenario if Malays are still divided in the voting pattern.
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20 (assuming they lost all seats to PR)
Total 43 (assuming both PAS and PKR maintained the present seats)
The Pakatan coalition could garner 129 seats or more forming a weak coalition and a government without Malay majority for the first time. If majority of Malay votes shifted to PAS or PKR than Malay dominance would stay.
The prime mover of the oppositions is no more Anwar Ibrahim and PKR, it is Lim Kit Siang and DAP, including helping to garner non-Muslim votes for PAS.Unlike PKR, riddled with problems of infighting and defections, DAP and PAS are very focus and emboldened to fight to the end.DAP is actively pushing its agenda in Sabah and Sarawak.Anwar Ibrahim is done. He self-immolated his political career by his political doublespeak.
UMNO can only win and continue with its autocratic power over the nation if the Malays are united.The 'bangkit Melayu' movement and the birth of Perkasa was brought about in furtherance of Malay dominance.
Rewinding the clock back to 26 years ago it reminds me how wrong one could get with political prediction, an uncle, a businessman and part politician once told me that the Kadazans in Sabah, because of their minority status, would never be able to rule Sabah.He was proven wrong, less than two years later PBS and Joseph Pairin took over the rein of the Sabah state government and ruled the state for two terms and would have been there longer if not for UMNO political manoeuvring and gerrymandering of the electoral boundaries. The Chinese was the kingmaker then and chose to side with the Kadazans.
Berjaya, a multi-racial party and component of the BN led by Harris Salleh was blown to smithereens, winning only 6 seats in the 48-seat state assembly.
In Sabah and Sarawak there are concerted effort by the oppositions and those within the BN/UMNO to remove both Musa Aman and Taib Mahmud from helming the next government by exposing acts of corruptions.
Taib has been exposed in numerous blogs to own expensive real estate in a number of foreign countries and Musa Aman has had his cronies hauled up by MACC for interrogations as reported in numerous blogs. Both Chief Ministers delivered almost all BN seats that saved the BN from becoming history in the March 2008 General Elections.Across the South China Sea in the Peninsula the BN lost 5 states to the much disorganised oppositions at that time.
There is now talks in blogs and coffee shops of selective prosecution by Najib's administration and the imminent replacement of Musa by Shafie Apdal, a Sabahan of Suluk extract and the ousting of Taib in the next GE.
How true is the story is hard to tell but doing away with Taib and Musa at this juncture would have its dire effect on winning the states in the next GE.
It is common knowledge that in Sabah and Sarawak's politics money speaks louder than words and the last GE was testimony of this fact why the two states can deliver almost 100 percent of the seats.The sad result in Peninsula Malaysia and lost of 5 states was attributed to that much of the money never reached the ground.
Former Prime Minister Mahathir has, time and again, says that the Malays could lose political power without elaborating.Some Malays think he is talking cock.The non-Malays think he is racist.I think he is being frank and called a spade a spade while the fashionable Malays want to swallow their pride and believe in the invincibility of Malay powers.