Can the BN retain its two-thirds majority or lose the government? It's a million dollar question with a simple answer.
Major swing to the opposition is expected in Chinese dominated areas.
Last night at a function a Chinese friend asked why are the Sarawakian Chinese against Taib Mahmud which he says he could not understand because Taib has favoured the Chinese all along giving them huge tracts of timberland and state projects and yet they wanted him out.I am afraid only the Chinese in Sarawak can answer his question.
The beneficiaries of Taib's largess could just be a small circle of Chinese towkeys, the larger Chinese population do not see the benefits going to the whole community. There certainly are economic spin-offs that filtered down to other Chinese- owned businesses but the Chinese chose to ignore it.
Taib's spoiled image are confined mainly in urban areas or wherever there are good Internet connectivity.The massive campaign against Taib were mostly Internet based.His image in rural areas have not been seriously shattered. In the rural areas the main source of news are still from government controlled TV networks.
There are about 15 Chinese dominated seats up for grab.As there is no certainty that Pakatan can capture the state to form the government the Chinese are not likely to hand over all 15 seats to DAP, there will be some areas left for the BN.
The likely scenario is that DAP may be able to pick up 8 to 10 seats.PKR and PAS, on the other hand, may have serious problem convincing Sarawakians to let them have a big say in state politics.
Sarawakians are still suspicious of giving full mandate to Peninsula based political parties.If they allow Pakatan to win and take over the state government they would be making the same mistake as Sabah.The state administration would practically be controlled from Kuala Lumpur and the chief minister would become a puppet on a string.
PKR may get some seats but not significant enough to put a dent in the BN's fortress.SNAP may take a few, but still not significant to combine with Pakatan to form a viable coalition.PAS will get nothing at all in view of its Islamic stanch.
Taib Mahmud has it all worked out that Sarawakians will only allow some oppositions but will not sell out the state wholesale to any Peninsula based party, be it Pakatan or UMNO.