As I have said here earlier that there would be no elections in February or March.It's a foregone conclusion.Najib's announced he needs more time for his reforms to bite in here.
Anwar's verdict, unexpected by the Najib's administration, has torpedoed his elections plan. The opposition's claim that the judiciary is guided by the executive is not true anymore.Najib was actually caught by surprise by the court's decision in spite of the fact that the judge had earlier in the proceeding said Saiful was a reliable witness. The general consensus among politicians on both sides of the political divide was that Anwar would be found guilty because the government is out to fix him, to kill his political career.
The judge has, by the acquittal of Anwar, thrown a spanner in Najib's elections plan. A guilty verdict would not send Anwar straight to prison but would put him in the throes of appealing his case, which, by election time, would still carry the stigma of his sodomy case and keep the skeptic away from voting Pakatan.
However, there are both sides to the coin, the verdict has also positive outcome for Najib.It shows that he has not interfered with the judicial system.The Western press have been quick to give positive nod to Najib on the verdict by the court.
So, when would the general elections be held?
It depends on two things. Anwar would have to take a back seat when it comes to Najib's priorities.First and foremost, will his deputy Muhyiddin challenge him for the UMNO presidency in the UMNO elections? If Najib feels he would be challenged that the GE would be held before the UMNO elections.
The opposition's propaganda machines have been working overtime trying to cause a rift between Najib and Muhyiddin, an outcome that would weaken UMNO and cause it to lose the elections.Muhyiddin's supporters in UMNO are employing the same tactic, encouraging him to stand against Najib in the UMNO elections hoping to ride the gravy train should Muhyiddin become prime minister.
These are all wishful thinking.Unless UMNO leaders close ranks before the next GE, neither Najib nor Muhyiddin would be prime minister. The coveted title would be Anwar Ibrahim's.
Muhyiddin is not as stupid as what the oppositions made him out to be.He may, at times, sounds incongruous with Najib but he knew of the danger of rocking the boat that will sink everyone on board.He knew that unless UMNO consolidates before the GE the risk of losing the elections is even greater now with Anwar on the lose.
UMNO leaders should learn from history, from the bad aftertaste of March 2008.
Muhyiddin's supporters would be very disappointed as it is most unlikely that Muhyiddin would challenge Najib for the UMNO presidency.
Only UMNO, with Sabah and Sarawak can save the BN government, MCA and Gerakan would be left out in the cold.The real challenge to BN's Chinese votes is DAP.The Indian votes would be split between BN and Pakatan.
Putting aside any challenge to his presidency the GE would be anywhere between June to December 2012, with the latter being most likely.