It is typical of many constituencies in Malaysia, representative of the racial composition of the population of the nation.The winner of this hotly contested, do or die by-election, would very likely be the winner of the next general elections.
Hulu Selangor is the final test ground that decides the political future of Barisan Nasional (BN) as well as Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
If majority of Malay votes swung to PR, the BN is doomed.No amount of pork-barreling can save the party from now on.The same goes with PR, particularly PKR, it would be the beginning of its slow and painful demise.
In politics, anything can happen, a major last minute change of heart can put all political punditry in the waste paper basket.A straw poll is not conclusive of the final result.Malaysian Insider did one here, not as honest-to-goodness poll but more an attempt to turn the tide in favour of PR.
Below is an opinion of a regular commentator to this blog.How accurate is his prediction of the outcome, one may ask is 'Providence always on the side of the big battalions'?
Man plans,God decides.
eddy said..Pity the Chinese votes are not going to the BN, my take is at best it would only be 30% in this by-election. The MCA and Gerakan are not very enthusiastic partners in the BN coalition any more..at best their performance lacks luster no ooommpphhh no spirit. Dr Chua looks dispirited in most photos taken of him in Hulu Selangor, the new MCA President should project confidence working with their other BN partners.
Whatever happens after the HS by-election it looks like if Dr Chua and Dr Koh do not get their respective parties up to speed in respect to Chinese support of the BN, PM Najib will have to do what he has done to the MIC and actually reaching out to the Chinese directly via the NGOs and Clan Federation etc. MCA and Gerakan just have to stop trying to pin blame on UMNO for their electoral misfortune or would find themselves having to fight head on with the DAP in mixed electoral constituency only, in the next GE. In the last general election, the MCA and Gerakan and MIC were saved from annihilation because many who actually won, won in Malay majority areas courtesy of UMNO/BN spirit of cooperation and give and take.
Ultimately we must acknowledge that BN is not without its flaws but if we take out the cases of abuse,corruption,wastage etc...a BN Government actually stands for an inclusive Government participated by all races and ethnic background very necessary in a Multiracial Malaysia and a track record of successful solid short term and long term Development for all Malaysian.
Compare to Pakatan which pounds their chest about being multiracial but when push comes to shove puts a Malay candidate in a Malay majority(Hulu selangor) constituency, typical chakap tak serupa bikin of their leader, Anwar bin Ibrahim. Besides Anwar and Kit Siang's rhetoric, Pakatan is but a coconut shell seemingly hard to crack but all soft and watery in the inside..a lot of internal conflicts brought about by the different party agendas and most of all Anwar's maddening obsession to become the PM of Malaysia.
Having said that I think the HS parliamentary by-election has been a good campaign for BN overall. It was planned and it was quite well coordinated, I still predict a majority win by BN of about 3000 could be more if the Chinese support shift to 50%.
2 comments:
I too read that MI report and twitted it. MI however did not mention how the poll was carried out.
The HS result will determine the title of my next post on account of that MI report.
I must say you are spot on as the HS communal (don't want to use race! tired already) ratio is very close to the national ratio.
I was following the MI articles/reports in the run up to the by-election and observed a subtle but definable modus operandi. Articles/reports cleverly addressing specific communities in the guise of news or opinion.
I liken it to black ops reporting. Well, going by subsequent MI comments therein, this not surprising, no?
I am expecting a BN win by a minimum 5K majority.
Lets see.
Regards
Freddie
Please take a look at this article by Blogger Apache :
Naib Ketua Pergerakan Pemuda UMNO Bahagian Maran sesi 2008-2011
In this article :http://aminchenor.blogspot.com/2009/05/tuntutan-buat-kerajaan-malaysia.html
Extract :
1) HAPUSKAN HAK MENGUNDI KAUM BUKAN BUMIPUTRA
2) BATALKAN SEMUA PARTI POLITIK YANG BUKAN MILIK KAUM BUMIPUTRA DI TANAH MELAYU INI.
( PARTI MEREKA INI AMAT RACIST DAN JIKA MEREKA KOMPONEN SEKALIPUN MEREKA TIDAK MEMBANTU KITA BUMIPUTERA, SEBALIKNYA MEREKA MENUNTUK HAK MILIK KITA KAUM PERIBUMI)
3) KEMBALIKAN SEMULA HAK-HAK MELAYU YANG TELAH DILIBRALISASIKAN BULAN LEPAS.
4) RUNTUHKAN PATUNG DEWA HINDU BERDIRI DI BATU CAVES DAN PATUNG BUDDHA DUDUK DI TUMPAT KELANTAN.
In the areas that DS Ong Tee Keat was responsible , the Chinese came out to give their support , turning around what was used to be a black area , losing by over 6oo votes to a win of over 17 votes .
Serendah polling area where DS Ong Tee Keat went four times to give speech in two big functions recorded an increase of Chinese voters who voted for BN from 69 in the last GE to 626 votes . This is the only Chinese area that saw an increase in Chinese voters voting for BN .
For the rest of the other areas where all the MCA big wigs were campaigning , they all lost the Chinese votes heavily .
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