Galas:A Long Shot For UMNO,Passing The Buck To Ku Li

Hantu Laut

There is much talk about Ku Li as candidate for Galas.

Tungku Razaleigh shouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole.He should not be inticed by the overture from the DPM whom I dread to think of as our next PM. It wouldn't be a feather in his cap for UMNO's new breed.He will be disappointed and hurt after the show ended.

Najib had acted as a true deputy when he was deputy to Pak Lah even under pressure from Mahathir to push Pak Lah out he has behaved nobly which I can't visualise the same with our current DPM.Political doublespeak and body language can tell a lot about a person.Muhyiddin's mixed signal does not bode well with Najib's 1 Malaysia.

Tengku should be beyond this meagre offering.The choice, off course, is his but I believe he wouldn't fall for it.

It is a thankless job. If UMNO loses he gets the blame and a bad name and if they win someone else gets the credit.

Galas, will be a testing ground whether UMNO has regained the Malay supports.It could be a long shot for the party.

If they have high regard for the Tungku than they should give him a high ministerial post as a show of appreciation and source of wisdom, not ask him, mind you he is not young anymore, to be the workhorse in an election.

Other than Najib, most of UMNO leaders are not the thinking lot, they only show their cleverness by being combative.

Kelantan's Dinar A Good Investment Alternative?

Hantu Laut

Although, the price of gold fluctuates from time to time it is still the most stable and a good hedge against inflation.Gold is probably the safest investment in time of war and financial crisis.

In times of economic crisis or inflation, recession or worst case scenario, a depression, gold always stands out as a stable value so that, even when you might need wheel barrows of dollars to buy a loaf of bread (like in Zimbabwe), a tiny gold coin would be enough for you to buy a wheel barrow full of bread.

In 2010, Indian converted more gold into investment than into jewelery.

The chart below shows the price of gold the past decade.



The Kelantan state government has issued gold dinar and silver dirham as legal tender.Which means you can buy them to use as legal tender in Kelantan only or if you wish keep it as an investment.

The move by Kelantan should not be viewed as an illegal action but more to allow its citizens the opportunity of having a more secured currency, as an investment or as an hedge against inflation and in times of economic crisis.

My grandmother used to hoard gold in the form of jewellery and coins.Your grandmother must have done the same.So, the practice of keeping gold as security for bad times has been around for thousand of years.

It is certainly better than investing in some State government's unit trust that have completely wiped out investors money with some losing their whole lifetime savings to this moronic former Sabah chief minister here.

If your are a CEO of a company or leader of a state who manages the state's finances and something goes wrong you are responsible no matter how much you wish to deny it, be it due to external forces beyond your control or bad decision on your part.

Anyway, which right thinking chief minister would allow a share swap of state owned blue chip shares for crappy junks in shitty companies?

I think Kelantan's gold dinar will not become a bona fide currency even in Kelantan but depending on its par value ( I have no yardstick to assess it at the moment) I believe it will be good investment to buy some for keeps.

Bank Negara should approved the minting, maybe not as currency, but as instrument of investment.

Other states should emulate Kelantan's move to offer its citizens a stable and safe investment alternative.

The World Islamic Mint that issues the gold and silver currency is here.

Debunking The Wang Ehsan

Hantu Laut

'Royalty' or 'Goodwill'? The UMNO boys like to call it 'Wang Ehsan'.Tengku Razaleigh thinks otherwise even at the expense of being sacked from UMNO.One man who stood by his principle.

The BN government says Kelantan is not entitled to oil royalty payment.On the other hand, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, founding chairman of Petronas, whom I presumed knew better, insisted that Kelantan is entitled to such payment by virtue of the Petroleum Development Act.The relevant section which Razaleigh refering to is reproduced below.I presumed, the section become relevant in relation with the agreement signed by the state with Petronas.

4. Cash payment by the Corporation.

In return for the ownership and the rights, powers, liberties and privileges vested in it by virtue of this Act, the Corporation shall make to the Government of the Federation and the Government of any relevant State such cash payment as may be agreed between the parties concerned.

Full text of the Act here.

One of the reasons given by the Federal government that disqualify Kelantan from receiving the oil royalty was that the oil fields were beyond the state's three-mile territorial waters.The oilfields in Sabah, Sarawak and Terengganu are well beyond the three-mile limit.

Are there no more honest people in government that can stand up and show sense of probity. Be honourable enough to admit that what Razaleigh claimed is true.

I am very familiar with most of the oil fields in the west coast of Sabah.From Semarang off Labuan to the North Furious rig west of Kudat.Being a blue water angler my fishing trips take me close to some of the rigs.The whole stretch of the west coast are dotted with rigs at various distances from the mainland, ranging from 25 to 50 nautical miles from the mainland.None are inside the 3-mile limit.Yet, Sabah along with Sarawak and Trengganu get paid 5% oil royalty.

What example are our leaders setting by this blatant disregard of probity and disrespect for written agreement which Razaleigh claimed was signed between the Kelantan state government and Petronas and by virtue of Article 4 of the Petroleum Development Act entitled Kelantan to the 5% royalty payment.

If the Federal government, the legislative makers of this nation can dishonour an agreement with its own state and at its whim and fancy what chance has ordinary citizen like us against the might of government and big corporations.

I wonder what kind of advises Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak gets that every time he announces a policy he loses more credibility and rebuff him from the people.The many unpleasant things that happened recently have ridiculed his 1 Malaysia effort.His government has become a government of "contradiction in terms"

Instead of spinning the untruths, it would be better for him to own up and admit that his government refused to pay Kelantan the oil royalty because it is govern by the opposition and giving them lots of money is like putting a noose around his government's neck.Former Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad did that to Terengganu. Holding back payment when PAS ruled Terengganu and channelling it directly through Federal agencies.

If Kelantan is entitled to the money than the Federal government, if fearful of putting the money in PAS's hands, should directly pump it into developments in Kelantan instead of giving all kind of lame excuses which only make the people angrier and more determine to kick them out of office.

If Kelantan did sign an agreement with Petronas and by virtue of the Petroleum Development Act than that money is due to Kelantan as of rights, not Wang Ehsan.

Manik Urai: Narrowing The Gap, No Bridge No Oil Royalty ?

Hantu Laut

It looks like Manik Urai will not get the bridge nor the oil royalty.PAS is set to capture the seat again.The Kelantanese were unmoved by UMNO and BN offering a new bridge for the kampung and further development if they win. If there were to be any consolation for Prime Minister Najib it would be the narrowing of the gap.

If PAS won, it is a vote for PAS not Pakatan.PAS has a stranglehold over the constituency and had only lost to UMNO once.

Most constituents eke out their living from rubber and fishing. The low education level and illiteracy among the adult population is advantageous to PAS.That's why they have no problem choosing a fishmonger as their candidate.Education takes a back seat.

To the Kelantanese PAS is Islam and Islam is PAS. In spite of PAS stance associating with secular party like DAP and PKR the people of Kelantan are probably the most parochial and insular among all Malaysians, they still accept PAS change of political doctrine.With the Kelantanese Islam and Kelantan come first and among the older generation UMNO is viewed as outsider.

UMNO only chance of making a breakthrough in Kelantan would be through cultivation of the younger generation.Those disenchanted with PAS for lack of development and job opportunities.Those politically guided not only by religion but a balance of both, religion and want of social, political and economic improvement of their existence.

BN losing Manik Urai will not change the status quo, it's back to square one for both PAS and UMNO.

Narrowing of the majority would be a positive sign for Najib's leadership.

Will Manik Urai be a turning point?

Will Manik Urai Pull A Surprise?

Hantu Laut

After 20 years under PAS rule Kelantan is still underdeveloped and lagging behind other states.What has PAS or Nik Aziz, for that matter, done for Kelantan that made the Kelantanese so subservient to this wily old man at the expense of losing out to progress and development? Should the Kelantanese continue supporting this man who put more emphasis on the afterlife than the well-being of his subjects.

Islam is a religion that orders its followers to be part and parcel of a working and productive society.The Prophet Muhammad himself, who is considered a paragon of virtues in Islam, used to pray seeking God’s refuge from laziness or idleness.In his instructions to Muslims on this aspect, the Prophet Muhammad strikes a balance between worship and work.

For two decades Kelantan under PAS which should put equal amount of effort in work as in worship is still lagging behind other states.

In term of social and economic terms Kelantan is a far cry from the rest of the nation.Should the Kelantanese continue to wallow in their parochial pride and forsake progress and development?

There are many qualified and capable leaders in PAS but have not been able to come out to the forefront as a show of respect to the Tok Guru, who is revered by most Kelantanese.The recent disagreement about the unity talk between PAS and UMNO where Tok Guru prevailed in his objection is an example of his popularity in Kelantan.

It is a matter of time that the unity talk would be raised again by those who feel the Malays are losing grip of their political power after the 8 March General Elections and the continued onslaught by DAP and PKR to capture Putrajaya had made some leaders in PAS uncomfortable.With Malays divided between PAS and UMNO the biggest worry is PAS might end up playing second or third fiddle in Pakatan if they won the next general elections.

Since after March 2008 Kelantan has become a bastion for PAS.The BN was almost completely routed here.It has lost 4 out of 5 by-elections in other states.BN biggest let down was when it lost the Kuala Trengganu parliamentary seat to PAS which it won in the March 2008 elections.

Manik Urai will be a testing ground for the BN whether it can regain a better and bigger foothold in Kelantan. In 2004 elections when Malaysians were euphoric about Abdullah new and untested leadership Kelantan almost fell to the BN.PAS won by 1 seat majority.

In the March 2008 Manik Urai state seat PAS candidate Ismail Yaakob polled 5746 votes against UMNO candidate Mohamed Zulkifli Omar who got 4394 votes.PAS won by majority of 1352 votes.

UMNO has a good chance of narrowing the majority gap or even wrestle the seat from PAS if they work hard enough.Most of their losses in past by-elections were due to loss of confidence,demoralisation, bad planning and poor strategy.

UMNO has a good chance of pulling the rug from under the feet if they can put their act together. Being the accused it should adopt defensive campaigning rather than going on the attack.

With the right strategy and with Najib's popularity on the rise, Manik Urai might pull a surprise.

THE BACK DOOR LEFT WIDE OPEN

Hantu Laut

Keeping awake until the wee hours of the morning trying to make sense of the snail pace announcement of the election results over television and radio was nerve racking and made me rather cheesed-off at the stupidity of the Election Commission and government run media for trying to delay the delivery of the good news to the people and bad news to their bosses.

In the initial hours, I depended on phone calls to various friends in the inner circle of politics who gave me multifarious version of the results, some of which were figment of their imagination.

Malaysiakini, the not so government friendly internet news portal and deemed to be more reliable was slow in their updates.By about midnight my connection to Malaysiankini has gone kaput, either due to overloaded bandwidth or those goons at the ISP were told to bar the transmission. It was the same with Malaysia Today. It has disappeared from the world wide web.However, by about midnight I have got an inkling of where the BN was heading for.

The people have woken up.The electorates from the Klang Valley and to most of the northern states in Peninsula sent a serious message through the ballot boxes that inflicted a serious dent in the BN's armour. Its impregnable fortress is now shattered in humongous humility.

Not getting two-thirds majority is, as the Hakka Chinese in Sabah say "sap sap soi" (it's a small matter). The greatest humiliation was the loss of the five states to the oppositions. They haven't envisioned this at all.The oppositions have walked in through the back door while they were busy guarding the front door. They were more concerned about not losing the two-thirds majority and have completely forgotten the vulnerability of the states.

Some of its components lay in ruins and one was completely decimated.There were many factors that led to the massive swing to the oppositions. First and foremost was greed. Internal bickering and sabotage also played a wicked role.

Although Penang was expected to go to the oppositions particularly DAP, the loss would not have been that massive. The crushing blow in Penang was much due to Abdullah's refusal to name the Gerakan candidate who would take over from Koh Tsu Koon as chief minister. The Chinese community already disgruntled and unhappy by the poor treatment they getting from the government viewed Abdullah's silence as a ploy to give the chief minister post to UMNO, which they have tried to get before under Mahathir's tenure.The former prime minister warned UMNO, it's a no go zone and to lay off.

The other state that could have a Chinese menteri besar is Perak where DAP has captured the most state seats.It secured 18 seats, PKR 7 and PAS 6. The state constitution of Perak stipulated that the menteri besar must be a Malay and of the Islamic faith but the Sultan can waived this condition if he thinks it is expedient to do so.

If the rules of democratic process were to be used by convention than the MB position should be given to DAP. It would be a mockery of the parliamentary system if the position goes to PAS or PKR. The Malays have thrown their support behind the coalition of oppositions, it's time they bite the bullet and set aside this unfair system.

Perak has a high Chinese population and Chinese cultural practices and lifestyle are conspicuous throughout the state, a PAS styled regime would be untenable.

PAS has issued a warning that all new states they have captured will come under the same PAS styled rules. Kelantan can't be used as a barometer for other states. Each state is unique and should be treated differently. Kedah has a better chance of accepting PAS styled rule. It would be up to the Sultan of Perak to decide the most acceptable formula for his state.

The massive swing to the oppositions were the results of good work of propagandists, one of which is the accusation of phantom voters and tainted electoral rolls. The results has shown that there is little truth in its widespread and wholesale existence.

Now that the die is cast, let us wait and see where democracy would take us with greater dissenting voices in Parliament.