Anwar Ibrahim Exposed

Hantu Laut

With so much talk about Anwar taking over the government soon, it got me pondering the past weeks on how he is going to get around doing this rather difficult task and whether I should have this polemic on my blog and infuse a nuclear meltdown among Anwar's impervious supporters and suffer the aftermath of a nasty fallout.

I think I shall take my chances and let it be. After all I wouldn't be getting physical blows from those scurrilous guttersnipes, maybe, at worse a busted ego which evanescent rather quickly to do any harm to my aged faculty.

The jungles of the worldwide web are full of spins,spins,spins and just about everyone with access to the internet are spinning something or another.They see it as their job to needle,poke,manipulate and dissect politicians with some having no qualms about spreading rumours, disinformation and innuendo as one guttersnipes called 'george k' did when he came to this blog and smeared my nice clean white sheet with his shitty dirty fabricated story of 'slush' accounts of our former prime minister and his family thinking I would easily fall for his ruse and posted that heap of rubbish on my blog.

Despite all those earnest declarations by Anwar of him taking over the government latest by September this year there seemed to be something missing in his calculations of what he called "we have the numbers". There appears to be no logical progression to those numbers under the present circumstances.

Anwar may have to wait until the next elections to try capture the federal government.His sudden realization that it would be almost next to impossible for him to takeover the government this term unless there is a big exodus from almost all of the non-UMNO(United Malay National Organisation) and PBB components of the BN(Barisan Nasional)

The biggest stumbling block for him would be MCA(Malaysia Chinese Association) and PBB(Parti Bangsa Bersatu) in Sarawak who are not likely to switch camp at this moment. That's why he has changed his tune by saying that some lawmakers from MCA are going to join his Pakatan Rakyat. Without the full thrust of MCA and those from Sabah and Sarawak, he wouldn't have a chance of taking over the government.He may get only some of those from Sabah and Sarawak and, maybe, some from MCA, but wouldn't be enough to grab the trophy from Abdullah.It is not as easy as many of us would like to think.

With the exception of Yong Teck Lee of SAPP, the other leaders in the BN components may not want to jeopardise their already well-rewarded positions. Only those who has not worked out the risk factor and those disgruntled or has nothing to lose would cross over to Pakatan.

The maximum he could get from Sabah and Sarawak would be from the non-UMNO and non- PBB lawmakers which at best can only give him 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak getting a maximum of 26, not enough to form a simple majority. Without massive defections from MCA he has very little chance of taking over the government.

MCA has 15 parliamentary seats , MIC 3 and Gerakan 2.He has to take at least two-thirds of those seats including the 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak to have a comfortable majority.It is not going to be an easy task for him as he has made it clear,unless it is spuriously a lie, he is not offering any monetary benefits or positions to those who wish to cross over.

Politics in Malaysia and elsewhere is all about money, positions and status.Even those who started with a noble value would eventually ended up licking their expired nobility.It would be likened to 'looking for a needle in a haystack' to find a politician with strong conviction to only serve the people and nation and Anwar should know this, he came from the same political school.

Would MCA get better treatment if it joins PR(Pakatan Rakyat) with arch rival DAP who has 28 seats compared to MCA 15? assuming MCA moved over en-bloc.With the two tigers in DAP, Karpal Singh and Lim Kit Siang, MCA would be food for the tigers.

The political landscape would take a drastic and scary change if MCA and all the other non-UMNO parliamentarians crossed over to Pakatan Rakyat. It would be completely new dawn in Malaysian politics and the end of 'ketuanan Melayu' that our former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad kept reminding the Malays to safeguard.

Below would be the scenario if Anwar can successfully wrestles the federal government from Abdullah on the assumption that no UMNO and PBB parliamentarians joined in the crossover.

Pakatan Rakyat new profile:

Non-Malay seats
------------------
DAP 28
Sabah(non-UMNO) 11
Sarawak(non-PBB) 16
PKR(non-Malay) 11
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20
--------------------------------
Total 86

Malay seats
------------------

PKR 20
PAS 23
----------------------------------
Total 43

That would give him 129 seats, just enough to form a weak coalition and for the first time a government without Malay majority, a true Bangsa Malaysia government widely espoused by Pakatan Rakyat and many of my fellow bloggers.

Unless Anwar has other formula he would have to be patient and wait his time until the next elections to have a go again at the coveted title.

The above scenario is based on UMNO and PBB not losing any of their parlimentarian to the crossover and would stay as opposition until the next elections.

Another scenario that may not be too far-fetched is the making of a new and more powerful all-Malay coalition comprising UMNO, PAS, PKR and PBB with 147 seats in Parliament.

On the question of offering Sabah 20% royalty whether the Prime Minister is empowered to change the rate of royalty payment to oil producing states without making amendments to the 'Petroleum Development Act' I have absolutely no idea.

Section 7 (which appears below) of the Act seems to empower the PM authority over certain things but had no mention of the royalty rates to the states.

Section 7:Power to make regulations

7. The Prime Minister may make regulations for the purpose of
carrying into effect the provisions of this Act and, without prejudice
to the generality of the foregoing, such regulations may, in particular,
provide for—

(a) the conduct of or the carrying on of—
(i) any business or service relating to the exploration,
exploitation, winning or obtaining of petroleum;
(ii) any business involving the manufacture and supply
of equipment used in the petroleum industry;
(iii) downstream activities and development relating
to petroleum;

(b) the marketing and distribution of petroleum and its products;

(c) penalties in the form of a fine not exceeding one hundred
thousand ringgit or imprisonment not exceeding five years
or both for breach of any of the regulations and for noncompliance
with any term or condition of any licence,
permission or approval issued or granted under the regulations;

(d) the forfeiture of anything used or intended to be used in the
commission of any such breach or non-compliance.

If the power to change the rate of royalty payment is not included in the above section than Anwar can only effect the change by amendment to the 'Petroleum Development Act', which would need two-thirds majority in Parliament, which he wouldn't have.

Unless such power is granted under the following section:

Section 4:Cash payment by the Corporation

4. In return for the ownership and the rights, powers, liberties
and privileges vested in it by virtue of this Act, the Corporation
shall make to the Government of the Federation and the Government
of any relevant State such cash payment as may be agreed between
the parties concerned.

Now I understand why Abdullah and Najib are not the least bit shaken or worried about Anwar's claims.

Haste Makes Waste

Hantu Laut

Tengku Razaleigh revelation that a component party of BN might be leaving the coalition before the end of this month have many people guessing.It may not be too difficult to identify the party concerned .

Speculation is rife that the SAPP may be the party that is going to ditch the BN due to unhappiness of its President Yong Teck Lee with Abdullah Badawi's inaction to the grouses of Sabahans on the thorny issues of illegal immigrants, cooking oil subsidy and hosts of other problems effecting the state.

Was Yong's concern for Sabah sincere or it is just an excuse to 'tukoran bankad' (changing shirt) to fulfill his own personal agenda?

SAPP is not the sole Chinese-based party in Sabah and Yong couldn't claim to represent the whole Chinese community in the state. LDP, another Chinese-based party formerly headed by Chong Kah Kiat has 3 state seats and 1 parliamentary seat.Peninsula-based MCA holds another state seat.

Yong's rumbling of discontent for the past few weeks and his ultimatum to Abdullah to resolve the issues by August is seen as a precursor to SAPP leaving the BN and stimulus for Anwar to launch his machinery to take over the federal government through a vote of no confidence against Abdullah which at this moment look impotent unless there is a big exodus of lawmakers from Sabah and Sarawak or the Peninsula joining Pakatan Rakyat.

Abdullah imperious treatment of Sabah and Sarawak after the 8th March General Elections has transformed the massive support for the BN into anger and disillusionment for the people of the two states, Sabah in particular because of its excellent contribution to the victory of BN.

This would be the second time Yong parted ways from political expediency. In 1994 he defected from PBS to form SAPP which was later accepted into the BN.

Would Yong and SAPP join Anwar or would he goes into political oblivion if Anwar failed to secure the federal government?

For a minuscule party like the SAPP pointing gun at the Prime Minister's head may not be a wise move.

Judges And Politicians:Ghosts From The Past

Hantu Laut

"I am sick and fed up of judges who have no guts to speak up when in office and to live up to their oath of office.

Judges demand an independent judiciary but are unwilling to make sacrifices to ensure its independence. It is such silence in the face of such outrageous misconduct by a fellow judge that confirms the public’s perception that judges are opportunists and cowards.

Why make spurious allegations now and not before?

The problem of the judiciary is to be found within the judiciary. Don’t blame third parties for your sordid state of affairs!"

Those are words of Matthias Chang, the ever faithful and obedient sidekick of the former prime minister.

He said Justice Datuk Ian Chin must be sacked for conduct unbecoming of a judge and prosecuted for sedition and contempt.

He and the ex-premier son Mukhriz lamented that Justice Chin should have brought up the matter when Mahathir was still the Prime Minister.

He is definitely faithful to the former prime minister and goes out or his way to defend him and what is even more amazing he, like his former boss, is calling for a tribunal to remove Justice Chin.Didn't that sound familiar and similar to what happened in 1988 when Tun Salleh Abas was sacked by a tribunal.

It was common knowledge that the Agong at that time before he ascended the Johor throne had been prosecuted by Salleh Abas when he was public prosecutor, convicted of homicide and sentenced to six months in jail.It didn't make life too difficult for Mahathir to get what he wanted.

Brought up the matter when Mahathir was still the PM ? Mukhriz is either joking or pretended not to know what kind of a man his father is.

Does Matthias thinks judges should suffer in silence and not speak out if there were injustices against them.What would have happened to Justice Chin if he had spoken when Mahathir was still the PM ? It wouldn't be too far-fetched to assume that a tribunal would have been the answer to Justice Chin's revelation.

Matthias was wrong when he says there was public perception that judges are opportunists and cowards.The only public perception of judges that I know of are that some of them (not all) are corrupted.

Matthias appealed to fellow Malaysians not to pay heed to the sideshow and said " You may have noticed by now, that whenever the Badawi Regime has a crisis eg. The UMNO crisis following the General Election disaster and now the oil price fiasco, the Badawi spin doctors would attempt to divert your attention with allegations against Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad.

This happened just before the General Elections with the setting up of the Royal Commission and the wild allegations against Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad.

This is another side show to throw your mind and anger away from the oil price hike to a non-issue by a frustrated old Judge who cannot even lie properly. This judge is angry because he covets the post of Chief Judge of Sarawak and Sabah. He cannot understand why Tan Sri Richard Malanjun was promoted to the post instead. He blames the former prime minister but he care not to examine his infantile behaviour. And now, the desperate politicians are taking advantage of his stupidity for their political ends!

Don’t fall for this insidious tactic of the Badawi Regime and the blogs and websites fronting for Anwar Ibrahim".

Matthias, like master, like man has thrown a challenge against the Honorable Judge and said
"In the circumstances, I call upon this disreputable judge to an Open Public Debate on the issues raised in his Open Court Statement within a week from the date hereof.

If he refuses, I am calling him a coward, a liar and a man unfit to continue in office as a judge.

And I challenge him to hold me in contempt of his court in making this challenge!

And I am warning Justice Datuk Ian Chin that I intend to lodge a police report against him on his unfounded allegation on the expiry of my notice to him to accept my challenge!

The courage of Justice Datuk Ian Chin’s convictions will be tested by the courage of my convictions!"

Justice Ian Chin is known for his high integrity and had no reason to lie and would not benefit from such histrionics. I wouldn't want to speculate on the two judges who didn't hear what was being said by Mahathir at that time.

From my experience attending conferences before, I found it is normal for some people, young and old, to fall asleep while the speaker is delivering his speech.Most of the time it is out of boredom and made worse if the speaker is not articulated.Justice Chin said it was a thinly veiled threats which possibly was not picked up by the other two judges.

I am certain Justice Chin will not allow himself to be used by politicians.

Matthias is seeing ghosts from the past.

You can read his full article here.

Anwar Ibrahim:Talking Cock

Hantu Laut

Many governments have to face the unpleasant fallout of the fuel crisis with prices of goods spiralling out of control festering discontent and labour unrest in the country.

In Spain and France thousands of truckers blocked roads over the rising prices of petrol and diesel.In Portugal and Spain long queues formed at supermarkets for fear of shops running out of fresh food due to truckers strike.The story were the same at petrol stations where long lines of motorists were waiting to fill up.In Madrid around 15% of petrol stations were dry a few days ago.

French truck drivers joined the protest and sealed off their side of the border and gridlocked with a go slow that caused 20 miles of tailbacks.In Britain 300 lorries are expected to converge on central London on 2nd July to protest the high price of fuel.There were protests and demonstrations in other parts the world over the high prices of petrol and diesel. Most governments have no choice but to increase prices.

Experts warned that the escalation in price has not ended and may climb to US$200 per barrel if there were no drastic reduction in consumptions.With the exception of OPEC members who can provide cheap fuel to the people, other countries including those highly developed economies, are worried that keeping the price low through subsidies would encourage consumers not to conserve and would lead to wastage and further price escalation and more money flowing to oil-producing countries with serious negative impact on the global economy.Increased consumption and some speculations had been the reasons behind the sharp rise in price.

Was speculation the cause of the unstoppable rise in the price of crude oil? Not so according to Adrians Binks of Argus Media Group, the largest independent energy news and price reporting agency.Binks may be right to certain extent but may not be exactly on the dot.Any commodity with futures market will attract some form of speculation and crude oil has futures for hedging just like many other commodities and would definitely attract some speculators with big appetite for big bucks.

One lucky investor who had, after a lot of research and a lot of thinking, eleven years ago decided that the long decline of oil price in the 1980s was about to end and acted on his conviction.Richard Rainwater of Texas plunked down $300 million of his own money on energy-company stocks and oil and gas futures.At the end of 1998 , the price of oil fell below US$10. per barrel and petrol sold for 90 c per gallon. Rainwater was getting poorer by the day while the Internet and dotcom were making billionaires.Then the dotcom bubble bursted and the price of oil climbed,climbed and climbed.A few weeks ago when the price of oil was at $129. Rainwater liquidated all his energy stocks and netted US$2 billion.He rises from No. 200 on Forbes 400 richest to No.91 with net worth of US$3.5 billion.

In the United States where people are more adapt to changing oil prices and are quick to change their lifestyle, the price of petrol hit the $4.00 per gallon or $0.95 per litre two days ago.Many Americans have abandoned their gas-guzzling SUVs in favour of smaller fuel-saving vehicles.The sales of SUVs and big capacity engine are expected to fall drastically in favour of hybrid and smaller cars.

In UK the price of petrol is around 117.9 p per litre, one of the highest in Europe. To top up a full tank,depending on size of cars, one would require between 100 to 130 pounds.For many Malaysians that's two-month petrol bill.

The most amazing country is Norway, the third largest exporter of crude oil in the world also has one of the highest price of petrol and diesel in the world.Its exports around 3 million barrel of crude oil per day.Since the discovery of oil and gas in the 1960s the country has been saving it oil and gas budget surpluses in a Government Petroleum Fund invested overseas now valued at over US$300 billion which is a whopping RM990 billion at current exchange and is still growing.Conservative estimates predicted the funds may reach US$800-900 billion by 2017.It is a net external creditor and has the second highest per capita in the world at US$53,037. (IMF).A nation once dependent only on its fishing industry and shipping fleet is now the richest nation on earth due to its prudent financial management and a government that stays clear of corruption.

Malaysians who used to be pampered by subsidised petrol and diesel were shocked and angry when the government announced a hefty increase in the prices of petrol and diesel last week. Long queues at petrol stations were seen throughout the nation as motorists rushed to top up their tanks before the midnight dateline.There were huge public outcry accusing the government of Abdullah Badawi as being uncaring and irresponsible.The oppositions political parties and former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad were quick to jump on the bandwagon and sent a flurry of attacks on Abdullah. Small and peaceful street protests were seen in the capital city, Kuala Lumpur.

The much touted prime minister in waiting Anwar Ibrahim said the price hike has made the prospect of Pakatan Rakyat taking over the federal government looking much brighter than before and oil price will be reduced as soon as Pakatan took over the government.He also said they will reduce the pump price for petrol even if the price of crude went above US$200 per barrel.

A very brave promise indeed, how is he going to do it and for how long is one big question mark.Is he a man of many words and would have little to offer when the time comes.I dreaded the day Anwar become prime minister and failed in his promises to the Malaysian people in general and Sabahans in particular.Say I am a pessimist but I can't foresee Anwar being able to deliver what he promised the Sabahans. You can't just give Sabah the 20% and ignore the other two states,Sarawak and Trengganu.

With the current price of oil Sabah would become a very rich state if it gets 20% royalty.Let's assume the production from Sabah is around 300,000 barrels per day.At current price of US$130 bbl the total sale a day would be US$39 million and annual gross sale of US$14.23 billion and at 20% on gross sale Sabah would be getting US$2.84 billion in royalties and at current exchange rate it worked out to be RM9.37 billion annually.

Malaysia consumes about 530,000 bbl/day of crude oil.Assuming the volume of petrol and diesel obtained after refining is 60%, its daily consumption is 50.5 million litre a day (see conversion table below).

If Anwar brings the price of petrol and diesel down to its former level of RM 1.92 and RM1.58 per litre respectively and at consumption of 50.5 million litre a day, the Malaysian government would have to fork out subsidy at various level as shown below:

Unit---- Per-------- Per
Sub---- Day --------Annum
sidy---- RM --------RM
--------------------------------
1.00---- 50.5 million 18.4 billion
1.50---- 75.7-------- 27.6
2.00---101.0--------36.8
2.50--- 126.2------- 46.0
3.00----151.5------- 55.3

After the recent price increase the government would still be subsidising about RM1.50 per litre which is around RM27 billion a year.

The consolidated profit of Petronas for the year ended 31 March 2007 was RM46.4 billion and shareholder's fund stood at RM170.9.Where is Anwar going to get his money to subsidise fuel to make fuel thirsty Malaysians happy.

The total Malaysia budget for 2008 was RM176.9 billion.Abdullah expects the budget deficit to narrow down to 3.1 % for the year.With higher energy price there would be some contraction in GDP growth in 2008 where manufacturers have to struggle with higher costs of production due to higher energy costs.

He boldly says he would continue the subsidy even if the price is above US$200 a barrel.A smart man that many Malaysians are very much in love with but who cares not about the nation as long as he stays popular. If the price of oil were to be at US$200 per barrel, it would roughly costs US$1.26 or RM4.10 to buy a litre of crude before adding cost of freight and refining costs.Has Anwar any idea what would be the eventual cost of the refined products.A table below shows the main products and other derivatives that a barrel of oil produces. Anwar promise could just be a pie in the sky.His act of mendacity to the Malaysian people is just abominable.

The lightning increase in the price of crude had taken many governments by surprise where the fundamentals of economic forecasts have gone out of the window leaving government planners flustered and in disarry.

The increases in price of petrol and diesel(2004-2008) in Malaysia is shown in the table below:


There were gradual increase between May 2004 and February 2006. The drastic increase between Feb 2006 and June 2008 was probably due to the sharp increase in the price of crude during the same period.

Between Feb 2006 to Oct 2006 the price of crude was fluctuating between US$54-68, breached the US$100 in April 2008 and climbed to over US$130 in May/June 2008.The government should have done one adjustment between Feb and Oct 2006 and a second adjustment in June this year.

Anwar wanted his Pakatan Rakyat to take over the federal government, if possible, through the back door.

Take a look at his Pakatan Rakyat in Selangor and Penang.They seemed more interested in witch hunting than getting down to serious work to administer the states.They delighted in digging into the sins of the previous administration rather than leaving it to discover in the course of doing their duty.

Facts and figures about crude oil:

1 barrel of crude = 42 U.S.gallon = 34.9 Imperial gallon = 158.9 litre

The table below shows what a typical barrel
of crude produces:

Product	Percent of Total
Finished Motor Gasoline	51.4%
Distillate Fuel Oil	15.3%
Jet Fuel	12.3%
Still Gas	5.4%
Marketable Coke	5.0%
Residual Fuel Oil	3.3%
Liquefied Refinery Gas	2.8%
Asphalt and Road Oil	1.7%
Other Refined Products	1.5%
Lubricants	0.9%

Bringing the price of petrol and diesel down would certainly endear the people to him but what price the nation would have to pay to make the people happy, Anwar popular and the nation broke.