Hantu laut
Where are all the economic experts, the second Finance Minister, the governor of Bank Negara and all those in government that try to muddle Malaysians into believing that there will be no recession in the country. Even the trained economists got sucked into this body of lies.
Such presumptuous and vacuous advisory to the people should not be taken lightly. It has serious repercussions on the economic welfare of the people and could stall the engines of recovery.If all Malaysians believed there are no economic problems and no recession sould there be any reason for them to put in extra effort to tend to the cut and bruises of the economy. All those who had intentionally misled the people should do the right thing......... they should resign from their jobs. Saying it once is fine, people accept you probably have made a mistake, but to keep repeating it over and over again is inconceivably stupid.
That was just a month ago when our government witch doctors and bomohs prescribed a good bill of health for the nation.Of late they have woken up to reality and faced with the magnitude of the problems, decided to swallow their pride and came up with a stimulus package.
When I first saw the amount of the package it was a shocking disbelief, the bunch of dead ducks in the Ministry of Finance is worse than what I have imagined. Not only are they bad in making economic forecasts they can't even evaluate the financial needs and optimal amount of the rescue package.As I have said in my earlier posts the stimuli would need another stimuli.....the RM7 billion is a drop in the ocean.The package is just too small to stimulate the ailing economy.The situation will worsen by the middle of this year.
The Malaysian stimulus package is different from that of the US government. Ours is a general rescue package of the economy while the US rescue package are mostly bail-out packages for ailing corporations and specific industries.The incoming Prime Minister should seriously consider revamping the Ministry of Finance.
In my forecast of the economic outlook for 2009 here I have predicted as early as October 2008 that Malaysia's growth rate would be in the region of 2% and below with high possibility of going into negative territory. The situation has changed, the outlook is bleaker, negative growth is no more a mere possibility, it's a reality. Unless the government increases the stimulus package and apply them in the proper sectors the stimulus might end up as stimulated waste.
Funding the wrong sector may cause more damage than good. The government should limit its exposure in propping up stock market and currency speculation to defend the ringgit.It has to face the fact that its foreign exchange reserve would dwindle in value if the ringgit depreciated against the USD.In the same posting I predicted export would decline by at least 20% during the 1st quarter of this year. The decline will affect all sectors particularly the major contributors like electronic, palm oil and crude oil.
There are two sides to a coin.The depreciation of the ringgit may not be as bad as some people imagined it to be.It is good for export. The depreciation can help compensate the diminution in value of export commodities. It's also a deterrent for huge capital outflow.Malaysians should be contented to keeping their money at home. The weak ringgit would make overseas travel more expensive and domestic tourism as cheaper alternative.
Whilst the government inject more money to boost the GDP and thereby increasing export, it must also not ignore to control import of certain commodities that are considered non-essentials.Imports of this nature should be reduced, suspended or imposed with higher tariff as deterrent. The tariffs and duties on luxuries (something pleasant to have but not necessary) like cigarettes, alcoholic beverages and other luxury items should be increased. The issue of APs for high end luxury cars should be suspended and the overall AP volume to be reduced.Increase road taxes for high end luxury cars. Incentive to be given in the form of tax rebate for manufactured products with high local components/contents. Promote and encourage 'Buy Malaysia First' to reduce incidents of unnecessary imports.
To overcome the unemployment problem the government must create incentives for Malaysians to take over jobs of migrant workers.Malaysians shy away from such jobs because of low wages and zero benefits.There must be re-education, minimum wage and better benefits to attract them to this sector.From my experience as businessman with offices and factories in many locations in the country, locals, especially bumiputras, throughout the country have the notion that blue collar work is menial and degrading and many would prefer to be drivers or office boys even if the dirty job offers 3 times more salary.I remember a case where I offered a bumiputra boy a job as a storekeeper in the company's logging camp with a starting salary of RM950.00 which he refused and wanted an office boy job which only pays RM300.00.His only other benefits of being an office boy is he sits in an air-conditioned office and gets a company's motorcycle.The job of storekeeper was eventually taken by a new school leaver, a Chinese boy. That's why re-education and revamping of wages and employment benefits are imperative to bring about the change of attitude.
Those are just few of what the government can do, there are many more.I have not touch on how the stimulus package should be spent.I'll keep that for another day.
Although, I hate it as much as any of you, all my predictions of the economy have manifested and the government was wrong......there is going to be a recession in the country. In fact it is already here.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Changing Of The Guard:The City Slicker And The Kampong Boy
Hantu Laut
So much and so many have been written about the Perak crisis. Maybe, we should now go back to more pressing problem and one that seems to take the back seat of the government's list of priorities, the ECONOMY !
Before I get there, let's ponder for a while and see what the government has been up to all this while.
At the apex of this list of priorities sits the UMNO elections due in March. The lobbying and jockeying for positions have intensified big time.The amount of cash changing hand is said to be reaching epidemic proportion, so much so, even the MACC had given up trying to nap the runners for the warlords.The MACC has now shifted its interest to the oppositions and is busy looking into the opposition's shenanigans.
Other than the president post there is no safe seat in this battle for supremacy.Unlike MCA where money may not get the respect of the rank and file as much as smut is, those in UMNO have not resorted to the smutty business yet.
If you are holding high public office and happened to be happily married but need to spice up you sex life, just be careful, the next time you have a tryst with your lover make sure you comb the entire room for bugs. You never know who is watching you.You can buy bugs detector, they are not expensive. Don't sting, buy the better ones.Chua Soi Lek could probably give you an advice or two after his dreadful experience of being caught on candid camera.The past has come back to haunt him.Maybe, he should change his middle name.
The only man that need not spend a single cent is Najib, the rest seem to have no choice, spend money or die! Muhyiddin is torn between the devil and the deep blue sea.If money speaks louder than word than Muhyiddin may have a chink in his armour.
Will Abdullah Badawi step down as prime minister ? The doyen of Malaysian politics former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad doesn't think so.This fiercest critic of Abdullah with his never ending admonition of him thinks Abdullah would just relinquish his post of President of UMNO and continue as PM.Is the former premier trying to rattle Najib's bones for him to stage a coup if Abdullah refused to step down? We have to wait and see how it will be staged in a few weeks time.
From the sublime to the ridiculous, even shit hot politician like Anwar Ibrahim wanted him to stay.This is the man who run the gauntlet on Abdullah just a few months back and attempted a vote of no confidence against him. After the failed attempt to throw Abdullah out it looks like Anwar contemplates Abdullah a weaker opponent and less dangerous to the oppositions. His fear of Najib seems greater than the man who sent him to the slammer about a decade ago. Najib's opening salvo has sent fear reverberating in the Pakatan's camp.The loss of Perak may be just the beginning.
Joining in the cry for the 'Save Abdullah' campaign is Nik Aziz of PAS. This religiously staunch and incorruptible Muslims leader is an enigma.His messages are equally enigmatic.The contradictions may have come with age.He seems to share Anwar's fear and dislike for Najib.Remembering old wounds could be another reason he was dead against PAS joining UMNO as coalition partner. Anwar against Najib, I can understand, but why is the Tok Guru worried of Najib becoming prime minister? Is he privy to something we don't know ?
Politicians can't get to where they wanted to go without sycophants, hangers-on and opportunists circling around them. Some are ridiculously out of sync just to curry favour with the bosses, without looking at the merit of their proposals.A government backbencher, one Mohd Aziz(BN-Sri Gading) proposed that Abdullah be made a senior minister after he stepped down as PM. Is Abdullah, who served only one full term as PM more deserving than Mahathir who had more than 22 years of premiership and a track record to go with it? It is not that Abdullah is less worthy but it would look absurd if he accepts the appointment after being forced out of office.
I am glad Abdullah has more sense than the balls carrier who made the proposal. He has affirmed his intention of not getting involve in government after he stepped down. He said he is basically a kampong boy and wish to go back to planting vegetables and fruits and play more golf. Unlike Mahathir, he says he wouldn't do anything to embarrass the government.
I believe Abdullah will keep his word.
You see, just like the government, I got carried away, I forgot about the economy.
I'll save it for another day.
So much and so many have been written about the Perak crisis. Maybe, we should now go back to more pressing problem and one that seems to take the back seat of the government's list of priorities, the ECONOMY !
Before I get there, let's ponder for a while and see what the government has been up to all this while.
At the apex of this list of priorities sits the UMNO elections due in March. The lobbying and jockeying for positions have intensified big time.The amount of cash changing hand is said to be reaching epidemic proportion, so much so, even the MACC had given up trying to nap the runners for the warlords.The MACC has now shifted its interest to the oppositions and is busy looking into the opposition's shenanigans.
Other than the president post there is no safe seat in this battle for supremacy.Unlike MCA where money may not get the respect of the rank and file as much as smut is, those in UMNO have not resorted to the smutty business yet.
If you are holding high public office and happened to be happily married but need to spice up you sex life, just be careful, the next time you have a tryst with your lover make sure you comb the entire room for bugs. You never know who is watching you.You can buy bugs detector, they are not expensive. Don't sting, buy the better ones.Chua Soi Lek could probably give you an advice or two after his dreadful experience of being caught on candid camera.The past has come back to haunt him.Maybe, he should change his middle name.
The only man that need not spend a single cent is Najib, the rest seem to have no choice, spend money or die! Muhyiddin is torn between the devil and the deep blue sea.If money speaks louder than word than Muhyiddin may have a chink in his armour.
Will Abdullah Badawi step down as prime minister ? The doyen of Malaysian politics former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad doesn't think so.This fiercest critic of Abdullah with his never ending admonition of him thinks Abdullah would just relinquish his post of President of UMNO and continue as PM.Is the former premier trying to rattle Najib's bones for him to stage a coup if Abdullah refused to step down? We have to wait and see how it will be staged in a few weeks time.
From the sublime to the ridiculous, even shit hot politician like Anwar Ibrahim wanted him to stay.This is the man who run the gauntlet on Abdullah just a few months back and attempted a vote of no confidence against him. After the failed attempt to throw Abdullah out it looks like Anwar contemplates Abdullah a weaker opponent and less dangerous to the oppositions. His fear of Najib seems greater than the man who sent him to the slammer about a decade ago. Najib's opening salvo has sent fear reverberating in the Pakatan's camp.The loss of Perak may be just the beginning.
Joining in the cry for the 'Save Abdullah' campaign is Nik Aziz of PAS. This religiously staunch and incorruptible Muslims leader is an enigma.His messages are equally enigmatic.The contradictions may have come with age.He seems to share Anwar's fear and dislike for Najib.Remembering old wounds could be another reason he was dead against PAS joining UMNO as coalition partner. Anwar against Najib, I can understand, but why is the Tok Guru worried of Najib becoming prime minister? Is he privy to something we don't know ?
Politicians can't get to where they wanted to go without sycophants, hangers-on and opportunists circling around them. Some are ridiculously out of sync just to curry favour with the bosses, without looking at the merit of their proposals.A government backbencher, one Mohd Aziz(BN-Sri Gading) proposed that Abdullah be made a senior minister after he stepped down as PM. Is Abdullah, who served only one full term as PM more deserving than Mahathir who had more than 22 years of premiership and a track record to go with it? It is not that Abdullah is less worthy but it would look absurd if he accepts the appointment after being forced out of office.
I am glad Abdullah has more sense than the balls carrier who made the proposal. He has affirmed his intention of not getting involve in government after he stepped down. He said he is basically a kampong boy and wish to go back to planting vegetables and fruits and play more golf. Unlike Mahathir, he says he wouldn't do anything to embarrass the government.
I believe Abdullah will keep his word.
You see, just like the government, I got carried away, I forgot about the economy.
I'll save it for another day.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Air Asia Emergency Landing Kuching Airport
Hantu Laut
A very sketchy report of one of Air Asia flights into Kuching Airport yesterday that had the nose wheel locked at 90-degree angle forcing the pilot to land under emergency condition with fire streaming from its nose wheel.The pilot managed to bring the plane to a stop safely.No one was hurt in the incident.
Before you jump to conclusion and start blaming the airline let's get the facts correct first.This is not the first such incident happened to the undercarriage of Airbus air crafts.Records show that Airbus had a number of such incidents before.
A Canadian study issued last year documented 67 incidents of nose-landing-gear failures on Airbus 319, 320 and 321 aircraft worldwide since 1989.None has caused any serious damage or injury to passengers.One recent case was JetBlue Flight 292 from Burbank to JFK International New York that made a forced landing at Los Angeles Airport.
Apparently, the locking of the nose wheel at 90-degree is a design fault.
Most landing gears were made by Messier-Dowty.
The JetBlue story:
Today, shortly after takeoff from the Bob Hope Burbank airport, a JetBlue A-320 was unable to retract its nose gear. The pilot informed ATC and the plane was vectored over to the Long Beach airport where it did a low flyby, so JetBlue maintenance personnel could look at the problem. They were able to confirm that the nose gear had rotated to a position of about 90 degrees out of line to where it should have been. That is why the gear could not be retracted into the wheel well.
The intended destination of the flight was New York Kennedy. Obviously it could never fly that far with the landing gear extended, so the pilot had no choice but to fly in the Los Angeles Area for about 3 hours to burn off the weight of the major portion of fuel on board (there is no ability to dump fuel, on the A-320). He had to do that to reduce the weight of the airplane so that it could be landed at the slowest possible speed.
To reduce the risk of the nose gear structure breaking loose, which would lead to more damage to the aircraft and increase the risk of fire, it would also be necessary to land without putting anymore weight on the nose wheel structure than absolutely necessary, and to delay its actually touching the runway for as long as possible. I presume the pilot located passengers and their carryon bags as far aft as was feasible, so that when the plane touched down, the center of gravity being further aft helped to accomplished that objective.
To keep the nose gear from touching the pavement for as long as possible after the main gear contacts the runway, the pilot on some planes (like Boeing or Douglas airliners) might employ a non-standard technique of trimming the horizontal stabilizer towards the nose up position, during the actual landing flare, until it will go no further. Then, as the nose began to drop, he would hold it off even longer with the elevators, until they too were pulled back to the full nose up position.
That is a very difficult maneuver however, especially since pilots are not given simulator time to practice it. The danger lies in the pilot running out of any pitch control at all, before he has gently lowered the nose gear to the runway. If he does run out of pitch control prematurely, the nose gear may impact with too much downward force, and that would significantly increase the risk of its breaking off and causing additional damage to the plane.
Captain Scott Burke proved to have the required skills; no one could have improved on that performance. He stopped right on the center line of that 12,000 foot runway (25L-----which was not an "auxiliary" runway, as one Sacramento TV News station claimed), with plenty of room to spare. Best of all, the nose gear did not break loose.
I believe this is at least the seventh case of this type of accident (there may be even more than that), where the nose gear rotates to a position of 90 degrees, from where it should be, when the gear is down for takeoff and landing (this kind of problem could never happen on a Boeing airliner-----only the French come up with designs like that).
On Feb. 16, 1999 an America West A-320-231, attempted to land at Columbus, Ohio (CMH), total of 31 on board. Same kinds of ECAM warnings, when the landing gear was lowered. That plane was finally forced to land with the nose gear rotated 90 degrees out of line. Same result as this JetBlue plane, which landed safely at LAX today, except they evacuated down the emergency slides at CMH, because the pilot could see smoke curling up from underneath and he couldn't get the tower to answer his query----if any fire could be seen.
Prior to that AWA emergency landing at CMH, the French had issued a service bulletin on the problem. However, no ADs had yet been issued by either the French DGAC or the American FAA, so compliance was advisable, but not mandatory. America West Airlines did not choose to heed that bulletin, and the emergency landing was the result.
Analysis of the previous cases revealed "...external hydraulic O-ring seals on the steering control module's selector valve were extruded (distorted out of the seal's groove). A small offset was found in the steering control valve."
Airbus further found that the problem would not be detectable by normal visual inspection procedures. It appears that though the problem is rather rare, it does have to do with that particular design of the steering control module. Quoting Airbus: Read more......
Monday, February 23, 2009
Antics and Idiocies Of The Perak Crisis
Hantu Laut
Who is the government in Perak? Both Pakatan and BN claimed they are the legitimate governments.We would only know the outcome when the Perak State Assembly convenes.
Pakatan's propaganda to demonise the Sultan has been very successful.Most Malaysians are now convinced the Sultan is at fault with some making unsavoury remarks against him even though it is his prerogative not to dissolve the assembly.How could the Sultan grant dissolution of the assembly upon the advice of a menteri besar who had lost majority support of members of the assembly. Nizar Jamaluddin should have gone to the Sultan earlier when he still has the majority support.My stand has always been that the Sultan is right and his decision should be respected. I believe he will triumph when the case goes to court.
Pakatan's twists and turns on the issue have angered their supporters and bolstered the support for them although their interpretation of the Constitution might not necessarily be the right one.How else can they explain to their supporters other than demonising the Sultan and the BN government.No matter what you tell the hardcore Pakatan's supporters their minds are already carved in stone and blinkered.They are intolerant of opposing views and opinions.There exist in their minds a Utopian society under Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan.
I certainly do not agree the jumping to BN of the two assemblymen that have been charged for corruption. I think it was a wrong move by BN. As much as we all hate it there are no provisions in the law to stop it. In a democratic system freedom of expression and that of association are paramount. It is only wrong from moral point of view.
I have written a number of articles on the Perak crisis and amazingly the majority of comments I get are in strong support of Pakatan and these are staunch supporters who are completely blinkered.It is not too difficult to guess the outcome of a fresh elections if one is held. Judging from my own 'opinion poll' the BN would be decimated if fresh elections were to be held.
SM, is a regular commentator on my blog and was the most civil among the many that came, some with very outlandish and masochist comments. Below is my response to one of SM comments.
Well, then let HRH dissolve the Perak State Assembly & let the people of Perak decide.
Who is the government in Perak? Both Pakatan and BN claimed they are the legitimate governments.We would only know the outcome when the Perak State Assembly convenes.
Pakatan's propaganda to demonise the Sultan has been very successful.Most Malaysians are now convinced the Sultan is at fault with some making unsavoury remarks against him even though it is his prerogative not to dissolve the assembly.How could the Sultan grant dissolution of the assembly upon the advice of a menteri besar who had lost majority support of members of the assembly. Nizar Jamaluddin should have gone to the Sultan earlier when he still has the majority support.My stand has always been that the Sultan is right and his decision should be respected. I believe he will triumph when the case goes to court.
Pakatan's twists and turns on the issue have angered their supporters and bolstered the support for them although their interpretation of the Constitution might not necessarily be the right one.How else can they explain to their supporters other than demonising the Sultan and the BN government.No matter what you tell the hardcore Pakatan's supporters their minds are already carved in stone and blinkered.They are intolerant of opposing views and opinions.There exist in their minds a Utopian society under Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan.
I certainly do not agree the jumping to BN of the two assemblymen that have been charged for corruption. I think it was a wrong move by BN. As much as we all hate it there are no provisions in the law to stop it. In a democratic system freedom of expression and that of association are paramount. It is only wrong from moral point of view.
I have written a number of articles on the Perak crisis and amazingly the majority of comments I get are in strong support of Pakatan and these are staunch supporters who are completely blinkered.It is not too difficult to guess the outcome of a fresh elections if one is held. Judging from my own 'opinion poll' the BN would be decimated if fresh elections were to be held.
SM, is a regular commentator on my blog and was the most civil among the many that came, some with very outlandish and masochist comments. Below is my response to one of SM comments.
Dear SM,
HLWell, then let HRH dissolve the Perak State Assembly & let the people of Perak decide.
Oh wait, HRH & his pals the BN do not want that do they?!
Sorry to say this but you sound very much like Hishammuddin & his bunch of turd brain UNMOputras shouting their support for the Royalty (when we know it was UMNO in the first place that "restricted" the Royalty).
Let the people decide. The people are more powerdul than the Sultan!
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It's not about having turd brain, it's about respecting the Constitution.The Sultan have the prerogative not to dissolve the assembly.Menteri Besar Nizar should have gone to the Sultan earlier while he still enjoys confidence of majority members of the house.
He went to see the Sultan after BN declared they have the majority.The constitution does not provide allowance for MB to ask for dissolution of the assembly after having lost the majority confidence of the house.That's why the Sultan did not accede to his request.
The Sultan acted in good faith but Anwar Ibrahim and DAP the biggest losers in this tragic reversal of fortune have successfully used the Malays through PAS and PKR to demonise the Sultan.
The problem is no matter how plausible my explanation is, Pakatan supporters and people like you will not agree because you are blinded by Pakatan's propaganda.
Believe me, Pakatan will lose the court case and I already knew what the general consensus among Pakatan's leaders, supporters and people like you.All and sundry will accuse the judges as being biased and corrupted.Bought by the evil BN government.
Let's get your facts correct, why did Mahathir remove the rulers' immunity from prosecution? You probably remember the Sultan of Johor incident.Only after this dreadful incident the BN government went to Parliament to amend the Constitution to remove the rulers' immunity from criminal and civil prosecution.The BN never removed the constitutional powers of the monarchies.These powers are still very intact in the state and federal constitutions.Only the Agong's royal assent to bills passed by Parliament was slightly amended that make the bills automatically the law if the Agong refused to give his royal assent.Whether the same was extended in the state constitutions I am not sure.It could have been included just to be in line with the Federal Constitution
I am sure you don't want the sultans or their families going round killing people or owe the banks money and refused to pay back and get away with it.
Before the amendment they are at liberty to do all that and the law can't touch them.
February 23, 2009 12:24 PM