Thursday, April 17, 2008

Will Najib Be The 'Braveheart' ?

Hantu Laut



His former mentor turned arch-enemy, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed was exalted when Abdullah finally made the announcement to step down.Mahathir thought he has succeeded in destabilising his bete noire and would see UMNO come under a new and stable leadership. He was wrong.

Last week he assured the nation he would step down and hand over the mantle to his solemn-faced deputy, Najib Tun Razak who has, albeit superficially, stood steadfastly behind him and refused to indulge in any conversation regarding succession and his ascent to the premiership.

One have to read Najib's body language to understand how frustrated and annoyed he is with his fickle-minded boss who is becoming even more unpredictable lately. Flip-flopping seems inherent in Abdullah's character.He has made a series of inexplicable blunders which would have caused great embarrassment and concern to most leaders but does not appear to have caused any anxiety to Abdullah.

When rumours were flying around about his intention to marry Jeanne Danker he catergorically denied it. He married her a few weeks later.The biggest shocker was when he assured the nation that he was not ready to dissolve parliament and call for elections and pronto!.......the very next day and in less than 24 hours, he did exactly the opposite, dissolved parliament and called for election. His astounding ability for contradiction and inconsistency is exasperating.

With the latest bout of Abdullah's vacillation, Mahathir may have to re-scramble his demolition team. As Lord Acton famous quote says "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely", and Abdullah finds it hard to let go even after numerous calls from his own party stalwarts and from some of his ministers to step down.

Abdullah had made an about turn and said he would continue until the party general assembly in December and he would also contest the president post and thereafter hand over the helm to Najib.

It would not be too difficult to predict where Abdullah is heading for.If he won the elections in December why should he hands over the helm to Najib.Abdullah is betting on chances that he may be able to garner enough votes to retain the presidency of the party and proved to all and sundry that he still has the support of the majority and, therefore, will not step down as prime minister.

If Abdullah is challenged, likely to be Muhyiddin, than Najib wouldn't be prime minister in waiting anymore, unless Najib openly declared his candidacy before the party elections to keep away other predators from joining the fray.

If Najib or Muhyiddin takes on Abdullah at the party elections than Tengku Razaleigh is likely to stay away from the tussle. If Abdullah changed his mind and refrain from contesting the post, giving way to Najib, there are strong likelihood of others joining the fray.

On the other hand Abdullah may not last until December, a coup in Parliament could remove him from office.

Keeping Abdullah as Prime Minister is good for the oppositions. Anwar Ibrahim had indicated that the oppositions will not pass a vote of no confidence against Abdullah in the August house.
His survival as prime minister depended on the undivided support of the BN lawmakers. The longer Abdullah stays as PM the better it would be for the oppositions and precarious for the BN. More and more disgruntled BN lawmakers who are fed up with Abdullah may want to join the opposition giving Anwar the added strenght of a bigger majority for a new federal government. Anwar knew where Abdullah's weakest link is. At the moment it is with the BN elected members in Parliament.

The support of the ordinary members of UMNO to keep Abdullah as prime minister is not crucial and is irrelevant at the moment.

After the poor showing at the polls, UMNO was in the doldrums, a ship with a captain but no rudder to guide its direction. It has lost the esprit de corps among its members.The elections results sent shock waves throughout the party with most members still in a state of daze and are shocked that the invincibility that they thought they always have had been smashed.The arrogance and complacency of the UMNO leadership had been their own biggest enemy.UMNO leaders think Malaysians owe them a living and would vote for them at every general elections.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time" is the famous quote by Abraham Lincoln the 16th President of the United States. After fifty years of political incarceration by UMNO overlords the people had spoken albeit not as strong as it should have.

Abdullah wouldn't have this crisis of confidence if not for the bickerings and back stabbings from UMNO members.The campaign to discredit him by certain members of the party has brought him immensely damaging public contempt.

The thorn in the flesh for Abdullah is Mahathir.His incessant attack on Abdullah has shredded Abdullah's credibility to pieces and created divisions in the party. Some members are still loyal to Mahathir.The party is divided between the devil ( Mahathir) and the deep blue sea(Abdullah). His tenure as PM has become untenable and extremely precarious to BN's survival as a central government. BN is walking the tightrope between life and death. If it does not take remedial action now it may not be the government when Parliament convenes.

The race to Parliament has just begun. It would not be a marathon, it would be a 100 meter dash and the fastest runner will take the government.

It would be a race between Anwar and Najib.

If Najib can't convince Abdullah to step down or make a move against him, the probability of Anwar taking over the federal government could become a reality.

Anwar is holding out the carrot to entice Sabahan MPs, especially those from the KDM group who are famous for selling out their souls to the devil, to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat with a promise to give Sabah 20% royalty on oil, gas and timber. Timber ? Timber has always been state resources and Sabah collects 100% royalty from timber.As an ex-finance minister Anwar should have known this and should check his facts before making promises that look stupid and unreal.

Giving 20% on gross revenue ? I wouldn't bet my bottom dollar on it becoming a reality.Giving 20% on gross before deducting production costs and profit sharing with foreign oil companies would be an economic nightmare for Petronas. Most Sabah politicians are just too dumb-headed and would believe the earth is flat.

Living by tradition is no more an option for UMNO.

It is now survival of the fittest.

'Braveheart': Is based on a 1995 Academy Award film directed and acted by Mel Gibson that portrays the legendary Scot, William Wallace who led a revolt against the oppressive rule of Edward I of England.

11 comments:

SM said...

HL,

I think Muhyiddin will contest against Najib. He is very much a Pak Lah man & for that matter going against the "boss" will either make or break him for good; so why take the chance?!
Najib's best bet is to contest against Pak Lah (if he can gather enough support & all indications hsow that he caould probably get enough support).
I believe Pak Lah is only waiting for a chance to get rid of Najib. Pak Lah is "weakened" now so he is playing for more time. Plus, there is the KJ aka son-in-law aka God's gift to Malaysia to think of also! KJ has to be supported as much as possible until he can make it on his own.
Ongkili to day accused Anwar of trying to destabilize the Government! What a joke, Pak Lah & his UMNOputras are doing a good job without Anwar!
Maybe those Kataks in Sabah & Sarawak should "jump" now & let the Pakatan Rakyat form the Govt! That might be the best for Malaysia. At least we can really move forward then & stop wondering what BN "sandiwara" is next!

kittykat46 said...

"UMNO leaders think Malaysians owe them a living"

Yeah, they have been treating Malaysia as their private fiefdom, plundering right and left.

To quote Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address - On the True meaning of Democracy - "The government of the people, By the People, For The People".

UMNO forgot this a long, long time ago...

Right now I just see two tired old Warlords slugging it out...Mahazalim vs. Bedol. No real evidence reform in the country.

They don't deserve to remain the governmnent.

Anonymous said...

HL,

I respect your views but do not ever look down and underestimate us Sabahans.

Parvinder Kler said...

Annonymous,

When did he underestimate us Sabahans? He said our Sabah politicians are dumb, and I for one tend to agree that they are not as smart as they think they are. Otherwise, we would never have given up our 20 points right, unlike Sarawak. Neither would be be dealing today with national based parties on our shores, again unlike Sarawak.

If our politicians were smart, we would not be in the posistionw e are in now-the state with the lowest educational atatinment and highest rate of poverty in the country. Not very smart outcome eh?

Tychicus said...

There seems to be no difference in the arrogance displayed by the current coalition MPs' and the former ones pre-election. Looks as though the situation is getting way out of hand and a DISASTER waiting to happen. Well, i hope it does so that a truly BITTER LESSON can be learnt from the mess created by the arrogance, greed, abuse and the sheer nonsense being displayed so blatantly. Whom are they kidding? Living in the new-age technological environment, do they really think that the current voter population are that stupid to DIGEST all that is going around in circles? Wake up, Ruling Coalition MPs', do not DUMP your DUMBNESS on the population. In every election that has and is taking place around the world, the CLEAR WORD is - CHANGE!!! If you all do not know the meaning of that word, please go look up in the dictionary and in case you all do not know how to read, please go and ask the kindergarden children nearest to your house. Maybe the children will give you a very clearer understanding of that word.

Hantu Laut said...

SM,
I have a strange feeling if Pak Lah don't step down between now and December,some BN lawmakers will cross over to the other side.

Najib may not be the best man to take over but at least it will keep the potential turncoats in the party for a while until a better solution is found.

Hantu Laut said...

anonymous,
I am a Sabahan myself but I find it hard to respect some of our politicians.There are there mainly for personal gains and they want it easy and where else is easier to make quick money if not politics.

Some of them are worse then the common thief and have no sense of shame.

Hantu Laut said...

parvinder kler,

Thanks for the vote of confidence.

Over the years Sabah politicians had sold almost every state rights to the Federal government, more out of selfishness rather than national interests.

Hantu Laut said...

kittykat46,

Well, this time they were wrong.The people have spoken, they are no more the lords.Old habits die hard, they still haven't change,still pretty arrogant.

Look, what happened to Makkal Osai?

Hantu Laut said...

tychicus,

No,they haven't change.That word not in their dictionary.

SM said...

HL,

Yup, UMNO will never change. And as for Najib, I doubt he will be the "Braveheart". However, just like Wallace, I have a feeling Najib may get "Drawn & Quartered"!