Thursday, October 16, 2008

Malaysia Fast Asleep

Hantu Laut

"Yesterday the Dow went up 11% and every where other markets soared.The Nikkei went up 12% in a day.Will the trend continue or was it a flash in the pan before the big dive to the abyss of economic disaster." Hantu Laut, Wednesday 14 Oct.

That what I said when the world's stock exchanges made dramatic recovery 3 days ago on a false sense of emboldened euphoria.The good feelings have now manifested into stark reality that the world might have to face the inevitable adversity of its own making.What happened to the world's economy today is not adventitious but the result of human folly.

As citizens I think we have the right to know what actions the government has in store to lessen the burden on the people in the event we go into a recession.High unemployment and business failures are two most imminent things in a recession.

The Nikkei was down 11.41% at today's closing, Hong Kong about 7% and Seoul 9.44%.The European markets which had just opened declined with the London FTSE down 5.17%.Most of the gains on Tuesday's rally have either been completely wiped out or are in bigger negative territory.

Bad news bear no significant in Malaysia where politics is still the master of the day.The sky might come down on Malaysia and if pigs have wings we would still be as strong as ever and no conundrum is beyond our ability to overcome.Both the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister have full confidence in our economy to being able to withstand the onslaught of the global recession.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Najib Tun Razak visited Kota Kinabalu yesterday to officially launch the Sabah International Expo 2008 and said "We Won't Fare Badly" and that the Malaysian economy is resilient and can withstood the global financial meltdown and recession.

I expect the KLCI to drop at least between 3 to 4% at today's closing.The ball will start rolling down hill from now on with small rebounds every now and then before the finale.

"The whole world is in financial turmoil.Malaysia is still in a slumber.More concerned with politics than state of the economy.The KLSE is the only exchange that is not in sync with the other markets.Are we fundamentally strong or are we living in a state of denial.Watch the market next week." Hantu Laut, Friday Oct 10

Malaysian leaders need to wake up to reality.Even our neighbour down south, Singapore has officially announced they are going into a recession and here, they are still playing politics and telling the people not to worry as we can overcome the crisis.

Can we ?

4 comments:

Daniel Ng said...

"The KLSE is the only exchange that is not in sync with the other markets.Are we fundamentally strong or are we living in a state of denial.."...Hantu

The KLCI fell the least not because our fundamental sound solid because most foreign funds have already exited Malaysia after the March 8 GE.

The local markets was oversold before the US financial crisis, now they have a very little to sell, you can judge by the current volumes.

Moreover, KLSE using 100 stocks as it capitalization-weighted index. So it's quite difficult to only judge by the index but If you look at most of the stocks, their share price already down minimum 50% compared with their high peak.

The comment of Malaysia are safe from this global financial meltdown by our leaders are naive to say the least.

It's very sad to see most of our politicians appear more concerned about their personal interests than the country’s national interest.

I didn't see any of our leader have the clue to tackle this crisis.

The worst yet to come, we have yet to see the bottom.

The World I Know

Hantu Laut said...

daniel,
I share you view.If there is not much buying and selling of course there wouldn't be much movement in the indexes.

I haven't really looked at the total capitalisation of KLSE between its peak and now.That can probably tell whether there was a big exodus of funds, which I believe there must be some.

Well,our politicians still think we all are kampong boys living in the kampongs and believe whatever they say.

As a businessman I have gone through at least three recessions before and I can tell you it can get really nasty when your sales started to drop because of declining demands in your overseas markets.A severe and drastic drop in sales can kill the company if you don't have reserves or sympathetic bankers to tide over the bad times.

I agree, the worse is yet to come.

Zawi said...

HL,
USA is one of our biggest trading partner. Who says we wont feel the pinch when they stop buying from us or cant pay for whatever they have purchased? Yes you are right our leaders are in denial mode.

Ivan Yong said...

Hi Hantu as per your comment

"A severe and drastic drop in sales can kill the company if you don't have reserves or sympathetic bankers to tide over the bad times."

I believe this is the biggest problem now. Even the banks has no money to lend.