Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Permatang Pauh In Videos
Would the incautious and incendiary remarks and incidence of affray at Permatang Pauh by-election open the doors to becoming the norm in future elections.
Here are some of the new and worrying trends of politicking in Malaysia:
Buses carrying suspected phantom voters caught.
PKR's Indian MP telling off a Malay police officer and said because of corruption the Malays are prepared to sell their country including their wife and their children.
Not a pretty language coming from a member of parliament.To provoke the police with unsavoury language and racist outburst is most shocking and should not be tolerated especially coming from a lawmaker.Anwar as the chief of PKR now should censure and warn this racist MP, if the police have not yet taken action against him.`
Voter told he is dead.Another screw-up by the BN government.
PKR's MP Jeff Ooi trying to explain to election officer that the boy is not dead and have lodged a police report.
PKR supporters taunting the ladies, probably Puteri UMNO.
Both sides are equally guilty of this audacious and unruly behaviour.
Parliament Will Never Be The Same Again
Hantu Laut
Monday, August 25, 2008
Can I Play The Devil's Advocate ?
Hantu Laut
Permatang Pauh here we come. Anwar Ibrahim or Arif Shah Omar Shah?
This is the most closely-watched by-election in Malaysian politicial history. It would the battle ground for the return of the giant or the making of a giant killer.For all this to happen the decisive and deciding factors would be the Malays in Permatang Pauh whether they would accept the return of its prodigal son and further erode Malay political hegemony or adopt a new son and keep the status quo and keep ketuanan Melayu ( Malay supremacy or Malay leadership if supremacy sounds too harsh to your ears) alive and kicking.
Ketuanan Melayu or not, this country had seen peace and prosperity after the May 13th race riot, which brought about the eventual formation of the strongest political alliance amongst the races through the ingenious brainchild of the late Tun Razak, the second Prime Minister of Malaysia, a man who thinks more than he spoke and cleverly established agglomeration of almost all of the major race-based political parties under one umbrella and gave fair and equitable representation of the races.The cohesion of the group was further fortified under the late Hussein Onn and later controversial former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed.
Mahathir, the longest serving prime minister had, on a number of occasions during his tenure, used the ISA and detained political opponents seen as threat to national security which many Malaysians interpreted as mere instrument to silence the oppositions and muzzled freedom of expression rather than a law to protect the security of the nation.Anwar Ibrahim has promised to abolish the ISA and other undemocratic laws if he becomes prime minister.
In spite of him using the draconian law and a perceived lack of freedom of speech by some people, the nation made an impressive economic journey.Better economic progress could have been achieved if there were less corruption and lesser needs to fulfill the NEP.With his power and influence waning after almost 22 years at the helm, Mahathir handed over the baton to his deputy Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. There was euphoria and air of change and reform envisaged by the general population and this was reflected in the results of the 2004 General Elections, a massive landslide victory for Abdullah. The huge mandate turned out to be a lingering curse for Abdullah and a nightmare for UMNO.
It is now water under the bridge that Abdullah had sent wrong signals to the people of his plan for reforms. His promises never materialised.The good feelings evanescent as quickly as when he was given the massive support in 2004.The euphoria turned to contempt,disgust, disappointment and protest.
Seen as a weak and ineffective leader the people delivered their thumping blows in the March 2008 Elections.The results also delivered unprecedented support for the oppositions coalition and the return of the heroic son Anwar Ibrahim to Malaysian politics.
Almost every political pundit had given Anwar the edge over Arif Shah.It is now a matter of whether he gets bigger or smaller majority.A majority less than what his wife got in the recent polls in March this year means his support is waning and would spell trouble for him to convince MPs from Abdullah's coalition to jump over to his side.A bigger majority might not give him immediate chance of taking over the government but would certainly help to increase his support for a better outing at the next general elections if his Pakatan Rakyat still remains intact by then.
Anwar needs not worry about the Chinese and Indian voters, they have solidarity and are solidly behind him due to his promises of 'Bangsa Malaysia' policy and dismantling of the NEP. The Chinese and Indians foresee a non majority Malay government should Anwar managed to grab the premiership by 16th Sept, a mere 3 weeks away.
Anwar is an excellent orator who is equally comfortable and articulate speaking to
the high-brow and the proletariat alike with ease and versatility, a quality not many politicians in this country possessed. Some of our politicians are still peasants dressed in dark suits with very little to show in term of intellectuality and political aptness.
Anwar is a good crowd puller and attracts thousands to his ceramahs. The question is, would the majority of those present translated into votes. Even spontaneity, sometimes, do not assure full support because some came just to listen and there would be some that may be put off by the content of some of his speeches and decide to change their mind.
I have personally witnessed a strange phenomenon of massive turnout at ceramahs especially where refreshments are served and astoundingly low counts at the ballot boxes.Though I would not equate the circumstances to be the same it would not be wrong to caution that the law of probability should not be entirely dismissed.
In the 1999 state elections in Sabah, former Chief Minister Harris Salleh tried to make a comeback to Sabah politics and used his new political vehicle called Bersekutu and contested in all seats against the BN and PBS.The 3 Bersekutu ceramahs that I went to drew massive crowd of supporters and the last one at Harris's house, just 2 days before polling day, drew almost 20,000 people in a single day.Harris and those in Bersekutu were jubilant and thought they already have the government in the bag.
The results sent shock waves throughout the Bersekutu camp.The BN took 31 seats,PBS 17 and Bersekutu 0.Harris himself was badly thrashed and lost to BN Yong Tet Lee and PBS Chong Eng Leong.
There seems to be a shift of some of his Malay voters to the other side which compelled him to sought out the imam who was present when Saiful swore on the Quran and brought him to Permatang Pauh to tell his story to the folks in the kampongs that he was instructed by his superiors to conduct the Saiful's swearing by the Quran and felt it was wrong and against the teachings of Islam.If it was wrong why presided over it.You can tell your bosses to go to hell if it was against your conscience.Doesn't that make you look like a bloody fool now that you spoke against it and would be hanged for a sheep as for a lamb.
There seems to be great confusion among the imams and ulamaks in this country whether swearing by the Quran is Islamic or un-Islamic.If they are not sure they should either shut up or refer it to the Grand Mufti of Egypt Ali Gomma who is well-respected for his views on Islam and Islamic jurisprudence.That's the man (picture on top) that they should talk to to get a valid opinion.
It's absurd that imams and ulamaks in this country can make contradicting religious edict making a mockery of their knowledge of Islam which they are supposed to impart to other Muslims.Even worse they are taking sides in politics.I wonder whether imams, ustazs and ulamaks can be bought too?
Anwar would be safe as long as there is no massive shift of the Malay votes.Any significant deflection of this group would spell trouble for him.
In spite of all above I would still give Anwar the edge over Arif Shah.
The Mystery Imam ?
Who is this man?
Ramlang Porigi - 29 years old ?
He doesn't carry the common Malay names used in Peninsula Malaysia.His name sounds more like a Bugis from Sulawesi.Let's hope he is not one of those with illegal I/C from Sabah and moved to Peninsula Malaysia.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Statutory Declaration:Have Malaysians Gone Overboard ?
Malaysians hankering for a change in government have thrown caution to the wind and acted beyond the bound of acceptable human behaviour, that have the crudest of form and conjure weird tales from the twilight zones.
Some seemed to have the congenital inability to tell the truth. Those with the unflattering ability to spread falsehood have become celebrated purveyors of tales from the shit hole.
The latest in the episode of the uncouth use of the SD (Statutory Declaration) came from an ex-driver, a man honest to the bone.
This time it is the DPM again(Deputy Prime Minister), the target of intense propaganda machine that's out to end his political career.
The frivolous SD was a sworn statement of Thagarajoo, an ex-driver to Kenneth Esrawan, a close friend of Najib, declared that Najib is a Muslim by birth but a Hindu by practice.
Najib would be stupid if he doesn't capitalise on this SD in the Permatang Pauh by-election in the next few days to show the Malay voters to what extent, how far, how low and how dirty Anwar and his supporters are prepared to go to smear his name and that of the government to win this by- election and try to take over the government illegitimately when he is voted into Parliament.
Raja Petra seems to have the uncanny ability to obtain SD from truthseekers with schizoid tendencies.
Sorry for you Anwar Ibrahim, your overzealous supporters could be your biggest downfall.
This time you really are going to pissed-off your Malay voters.
Read the piquant SD of the piss artist here.
Even the Imam is playing politics read here and here
Friday, August 22, 2008
A Thorn In The Flesh, A Pain In The Arse.
Personality cult have existed from time immemorial.It generally started with hero worshipping a person which later can transform to personality cult when the person attained political power.This deification can eventually lead to dictatorship or absolute tyranny.
History has given us cult of personality in the regimes of Stalin,Hitler,Mao,Sadam Hussein,Kim II Sung,Pol Pot and others.It's more common in a totalitarian system but have also been known to exist in some democracies.Eva Peron and her husband Juan Peron are examples of personality cult in a democracy.
These type of leaders were presented as god-like and seen as infallible by those with blind loyalty.The degree of blind loyalty can extend from giving simple moral support to committing atrocities,murders and genocide to keep such leaders in power.
Since gaining independence Malaysia has not had such leader and even the longest serving Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad would not fall into that category.
The support for Anwar Ibrahim is dangerously turning into a personality cult.Some of his supporters wouldn't give second thought to resort to violence to deliver their message.
If Anwar's support on the ground is strong his support online is phenomenal.The huge support from political blogs and blog readers have made it unbearably painful for the government of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and an impossible task to turn the table against Anwar .It wouldn't be far off the mark to say that close to 90% of blogs and blog commentators were supporting him to be the next prime minister and Pakatan as their choice of government.
Any unceremonious story, past or present, on Anwar or his party members published by the mainstream media, true or false, would irk his supporters to no end.Some would counter such incidents with their own version of government conspiracy.Such was the case when 3 PKR Exco members from Perak were arrested for corruption.A pro-Pakatan blog has his story of conspiracy here
In the Permatang Pauh by-election Anwar would have an unassailable lead over BN's candidate Arif Shah Omar Shah.With a week to go to the poll not much change is expected to tip the balance in favour of the BN.
The BN, particularly UMNO screwed up the Anwar's issue big time.They have made a monster they are unable to control, a man seen by many a victim of government conspiracy.Its campaign against Anwar has gone completely gaga creating a bigger and angrier backlash instead of the desired outcome of bringing the voters back to the fold.
Sodomy II, named by his supporters, should not have been brought against Anwar even if there was a speck of truth in Saiful's claim.With the government's credibility at its lowest any attempt to demonise Anwar further would only bring more support to his side
Anything negative said of Anwar is incoherent to his supporters and majority would have no qualms using expletives and profanities to admonish anyone who dares to do so.A walk through Malaysia Today and Susan Loone's blog showed what a cause celebre Anwar is in blogosphere.
Harping on his sodomy issue and showing video of Saiful's swearing on the Quran is only going to add salt to the BN's wound and send charity knocking on Anwar's door.The BN campaign should have concentrated more on the 'whys' the people should vote for the BN candidate and the bigger benefits of doing so and less of the intrusion of Saiful's arsehole, which many Malay elders in the kampongs would find embarrassingly inappropriate subject to talk about over a cup of coffee.
Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, his cabinet and the government as a whole have to face the fact that the entry of Anwar to Parliament is imminent and face the fact that he is going to be a thorn in the flesh and a pain in the arse.
Related articles:
Malaysia bookies say Anwar a safe bet in local poll
Malaysia's high-stakes election
By-election campaign turns ugly
Thursday, August 14, 2008
The Race For Permatang Pauh Has Begun
The race for Permatang Pauh has begun.It would be the most closely-watched by-election.
It would be interesting to watch in which direction the voters would move.Most political soothsayers have predicted Anwar Ibrahim to win.He has style, charisma, moral victory and an effective political strategist with an infective smile. He has the incontrovertible support of his constituents and not likely to end up in a blanket finish.He certainly has the competitive edge.Can he lose?
In every race or competition, just like in algebraic equation, there are the known and unknown factors.In the case of Anwar the known factor is that most non-Malays and young educated urbanised Malays will vote for him without any hesitation.This group have made up their mind and would take miracles to change them. The second sodomy charges brought against him have strengthened their resolve that he is innocent and is a victim of government conspiracy and, therefore, deserved even more support.The story would have been slightly different if he had not been charged.The government has actually helped him to garner more support.
The constituency of Permatang Pauh has 70% Malays and 30% non-Malays voters.It would be the Malays that will decide whether Anwar should win this by-election.Whether he still deserves the Malay support taking into account the chain of events occurring after the 8th March General Elections.
His party PKR won significant number of state and parliamentary seats on the waves of majority non-Malay and Malay support, disenchantment with UMNO leaders and the Prime Minister. PKR alliance with DAP and PAS is now seen in some Malay quarters as weakening the Malay power base. PKR only did well in Selangor, which it won overwhelmingly on majority non-Malay support.
It won 15 state seats in Selangor out of which 6 were won by non-Malay candidates. Even in metropolitan Selangor PAS did extremely well taking 7 seats and being a metropolis DAP took 13 seats.If DAP had won 3 more seats than Selangor would have ended up like Penang and Perak,
under control of non-Malays, particularly Chinese.In the parliamentary seats in the state, PKR took 4 seats, won by 2 Malays and 2 non-Malays, DAP won 5 seats and PAS 1 seat.The seats won in other states were insignificant.Total seat won in Parliament was 31 out of which 11 were non-Malays.
PKR would be an ideal multi-racial party that most urbanised Malaysians would like to have to narrow the racial gap, the same way Berjaya did in Sabah about three decades ago until arrogance got the better of Harris Salleh, the Chief Minister at that time.Berjaya lost the state elections and it's back to communal politics ever since.Now with UMNO ruling the state, communalism is very alive and kicking.
Is Malaysia ready for multi-cultural party to govern the nation.From results of the last elections obviously not, only small segment of Malays are insouciance and are comfortable with multi-cultural political party.
Would Anwar succeed in his promise of 'one nation one people'? It was the same policy pushed forward by Lee Kwan Yew in his pursuit of Malaysian Malaysia that got Singapore kicked out of Malaysia.
When and until the government amend the constitution to make it Malaysian friendly, that dream would stay a dream, just like the receding horizon, we can see it but we can't get there.
A good example was Khalid Ibrahim's proposal to allow 10% non-Malays students into UiTM and presto!... there was spontaneous combustion from the Malays, about 5000 students demonstrated against his outrageous idea.It seems Khalid has superficial understanding of politics in this country.He forgot that UiTM is a national property and has nothing to do with the state of Selangor.
More damaging to PKR is the action of its Kulim MP, the demagogic Zulkifli Noordin who stormed the brainstorming session of the Bar Council public forum "Conversion to Islam" with a horde of menacing religious bigots behind him.Anwar has not made any condemnation of this infuriating show of intolerance for fear of reprisal at the polls.
Malaysia is now more polarized than before, no thanks to Abdullah for his promise of reformasi, we have come to a stage where the head doesn't know what the tail is doing.
In the Permatang Pauh by-election UMNO candidate Arif Shah, who is the only UMNO candidate that survived in the Permatang Pauh three state constituencies in the last elections would have tough time to take on Anwar but would still have a chance if UMNO can sway the Malay voters to his side by presenting Anwar as a traitor to the Malays which they certainly would.UMNO also has a bigger war chest to reckon with.PAS, might even leave Pakatan Rakyat, if he is seen not to be protecting the rights of Malays and Muslims.
Anwar's wife, Dr Wan Azizah Ismail managed to retain the Permatang Pauh seat all this while on sentiment and not performance as many would tend to believe, so did her daughter, who won the Titiwangsa parliament seat on sympathy votes.Sympathy votes had been known to make or kill the political career of many politicians, it has no rhyme or reason.
Arrogance is another factor that could kill a person political career and some in UMNO would have learned this bitter lesson.
It is not without any justification that some people sees Anwar as arrogance and power crazy.His persistent hammering of taking over the government by 15th September and he becoming the Prime Minister is backfiring on him.As I have said before PAS might not join him in any motion of vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister.The 30 or so MPs that he claimed he has waiting to jump to his side were probably mostly non-Muslims from Sabah and Sarawak which would add to his problem of persuading PAS to join in.
Some in DAP might not want to spoil the cooking of the broth, they are quite happy with what they have got so far, a botched vote of no confidence could jeopardise the status quo and them losing power in Perak and Selangor.
Anwar may still win Permatang Pauh but he may have to wait a bit longer to be the Prime Minister, if the political landscape doesn't change until the next general elections.