Hantu Laut
Despite all those earnest declarations by Anwar of taking over the government latest by 16th September there seemed to be something missing in his calculations of what he called "we have the numbers". There appears to be no logical progression to those numbers under the present circumstances.
Anwar may have to wait until the next elections to try capture the Federal government.His sudden realization that it would be almost next to impossible for him to takeover the government this term unless there is a big exodus from almost all of the non-UMNO and non-PBB components of the BN or a mixture of all including significant number from UMNO.
The biggest stumbling block for him would be lawmakers from UMNO, MCA and PBB in Sarawak who are not likely to switch camp at the moment.
Without the full thrust of MCA and those from Sabah and Sarawak, he wouldn't have a chance of taking over the government.He may only get some of those from Sabah and Sarawak and, maybe, some from MCA, but wouldn't be enough to grab the trophy from Abdullah.It is not as easy as many of us would like to think.
With the exception of Yong Teck Lee of SAPP, other leaders in the BN components may not want to jeopardise their already well-rewarded positions. Only those who have worked out the risk factor, disgruntled and have nothing to lose would cross over to Pakatan.
Without deserters from UMNO and PBB, the maximum he could get from Sabah and Sarawak would be at best only give him 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak, giving him a maximum of 26, not enough to form a simple majority.With only Sabah and Sarawak and without massive defections from MCA, he has very little chance of success.
MCA has 15 parliamentary seats , MIC 3 and Gerakan 2.He has to take at least two-thirds of those seats including the 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak to have a comfortable majority.It is not going to be an easy task for him as he had made it clear he is not offering any monetary benefits or positions to those who wish to cross over.
Politics in Malaysia is all about money, positions and status.Even those who started with a noble value would eventually ended up licking their conscience.It would be like looking for a needle in a haystack to find a politician with one honest bone in them and with strong conviction to only serve the people and nation. Anwar should know this, he came from the same political school.
Would MCA get better treatment if it joins PR (Pakatan Rakyat) with arch rival DAP in there with 28 seats compared to MCA 15 assuming MCA moved over en-bloc? With the two tigers in DAP, Karpal Singh and Lim Kit Siang, MCA would be food for the tigers.
The political landscape would take a drastic and scary change if MCA and all the other non-UMNO parliamentarians crossed over to Pakatan Rakyat. It would be completely new dawn in Malaysian politics and the end of 'ketuanan Melayu' that our former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad kept reminding the Malays to safeguard.
Below would be the scenario if Anwar can successfully wrestles the Federal government away from Abdullah on the assumption that no UMNO and PBB parliamentarians joined in the crossover.
Pakatan Rakyat new profile:
Non-Malay seats
------------------
DAP 28
Sabah(non-UMNO) 11
Sarawak(non-PBB) 16
PKR(non-Malay) 11
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20
--------------------------------
Total 86
Malay seats
------------------
PKR 20
PAS 23
----------------------------------
Total 43
That would give him 129 seats, just enough to form a weak coalition and for the first time a government without Malay majority. A true Bangsa Malaysia government widely promoted by Anwar Ibrahim.
The above scenario is based on UMNO and PBB not losing any of their parlimentarians to the crossover and would stay as opposition until the next elections.
Another hypothetical scenario, remote but not impossible, is the making of a new and more powerful all-Malay coalition comprising UMNO, PAS, PKR and PBB with 147 seats in Parliament.
Without significant numbers from UMNO and other BN components joining him there is little chance of Anwar taking over the government in the immediate future.
Another stumbling block for Anwar is from his own coalition partners, PAS and DAP.
Lim Kit Siang of DAP had made it clear that his party would not support defections from the BN if based on promises of money and positions.Without these two incentives and knowing the true nature of our politicians, how many would want to cross over to ground zero ?
DAP knew bringing in other coalition partners would erode their power and influence in Pakatan.They are prepared to wait till the next elections to increase their intake of Chinese seats which they are highly likely to succeed as by then Gerakan and MCA would probably be history.
They have waited for this day of glory and are not going to let a moment of greed to destroy what they have fought for over four decades.With Penang and Perak under its control and significant influence in the Selangor state government and well represented in the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur they are not in a hurry to be a player at Federal level.
PAS have also sounded the same sentiment albeit on different issues.If there should be racial imbalance in the Pakatan line-up where Malay representation is not adequately met,PAS is likely to stay away from such move.
Both DAP and PAS are not in a hurry to grab the Federal government. Only Anwar is prepared for a coup de grace against Abdullah's government, all for his secret agenda, under the guises of equality for all Malaysians.
Bangsa Malaysia, maybe, an elusive dream after all.
The month of October will see the massive shifting of support from the Abdullah/Najib's camp to the Mahathir/Razaleigh/Muhyiddin's camp.
The only possible scenario that going to happen before the year end is the ousting of Abdullah and Najib as President and Deputy President of UMNO respectively, if they can't stabilise the tense and dangerous political climate the next few months.
Now Abdullah has to face a bigger problem to his already mounting and insurmountable problems.
Not only he has to play kung-fu with Anwar Ibrahim, he has to face an even more potent opponent, his old guru, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad who had declared to rejoin UMNO.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Playing With Fire
Hantu Laut
Although I do not wish to be branded an alarmist or prophet of doom, I would urge Pak Lah for the sake of the nation and the safety of the people not to ignore Khir Toyo's warning of possible ugly racial clashes if as Prime Minister he couldn't control people like Ahmad Ismail to stop spewing racist remarks against other races in the country.
The situation is getting tense and would be out of control if Pak Lah doesn't take remedial action to stop it from deteriorating further.
Now is the time for him to show to the Malaysian people that he is Prime Minister for all Malaysians and issue an ultimatum to Ahmad Ismail to stop, apologise or face arrest.
Ahmad Ismail is defiant because he thinks the Prime Minister is weak and dare not take action against him and he has shown little respect for the Prime Minister.He wants to go down in the history book as the defender of 'ketuanan Melayu' and Malay rights.He is trying to rile up the Malays against the Chinese.The tearing of the picture of former Penang Chief Minister Koh Tsu Koon by Ahmad Ismail's supporters should not be taken lightly by UMNO and the PM.
Pak lah should put the nation and the people safety first.Refusal to observe this supreme responsibility as head of the nation would render him a lame-duck prime minister and should consider stepping down.
I am sure Pak Lah doesn't want to go down in history known as the man who destroy this nation.
Don't just say you are unhappy with him, do something and do it quickly.
Although I do not wish to be branded an alarmist or prophet of doom, I would urge Pak Lah for the sake of the nation and the safety of the people not to ignore Khir Toyo's warning of possible ugly racial clashes if as Prime Minister he couldn't control people like Ahmad Ismail to stop spewing racist remarks against other races in the country.
The situation is getting tense and would be out of control if Pak Lah doesn't take remedial action to stop it from deteriorating further.
Now is the time for him to show to the Malaysian people that he is Prime Minister for all Malaysians and issue an ultimatum to Ahmad Ismail to stop, apologise or face arrest.
Ahmad Ismail is defiant because he thinks the Prime Minister is weak and dare not take action against him and he has shown little respect for the Prime Minister.He wants to go down in the history book as the defender of 'ketuanan Melayu' and Malay rights.He is trying to rile up the Malays against the Chinese.The tearing of the picture of former Penang Chief Minister Koh Tsu Koon by Ahmad Ismail's supporters should not be taken lightly by UMNO and the PM.
Pak lah should put the nation and the people safety first.Refusal to observe this supreme responsibility as head of the nation would render him a lame-duck prime minister and should consider stepping down.
I am sure Pak Lah doesn't want to go down in history known as the man who destroy this nation.
Don't just say you are unhappy with him, do something and do it quickly.
Bring Back The Crooks
Hantu Laut
Throw out a good man and bring back the crooks.That's what exactly the Pakistani voters have done to their country.
The return of Asif Ali Zardari , the widower of Benazir Ali Bhutto to Pakistani politics and President was nothing less than emotional sympathy of the Pakistani people.A dangerous trend in many Asian countries.
His wife assasinated in December 2007 by suicide bomber while on a campaign trail to make a comeback to Pakistani politics brought him back from the dead. Her death was the cause celebre that catapulted Zardari to the nation's highest office.
This is the man dogged with shady commercial deals that landed him in jail for 7 years.Known as "Mr Ten Percent" his shady deals included charges of money laundering in Switzerland, shady deals in Dubai and mysterious real estate acquisition in Britain and France.The worst allegation against him was the murder of his brother-in-law, Benazir's brother Murtaza Bhutto in 1996 in Karachi.
In 2007 under American and British brokered deal, President Musharraf dropped all charges against Zardari and allowed his wife to return to Pakistan to participate in the elections.
Musharraf, seen by the American and British as coming to an end of his shelf life and usefulness convinced him to return Pakistan to civilian rule and to allow not only Benazir Bhutto to return but another crooked politician ex-Premier Nawaz Sharif who was in exiled in Saudi Arabia.
It's turbulent times in Pakistan,inflation is running over 25%, the country foreign reserve is dwindling fast over the past few months and there is acute shortage of fuel and electricity.
Zardari biggest headache and challenge would be the restive Northwest Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan where the Talibans have gained a strong foothold and had Talibanizied the province with extreme form of Islam.
With two crooks running the country we would have to wait and see whether Pakistan would see true democracy and better economic development or would suffer even worse....
...a state of disrepair and despair.
Throw out a good man and bring back the crooks.That's what exactly the Pakistani voters have done to their country.
The return of Asif Ali Zardari , the widower of Benazir Ali Bhutto to Pakistani politics and President was nothing less than emotional sympathy of the Pakistani people.A dangerous trend in many Asian countries.
His wife assasinated in December 2007 by suicide bomber while on a campaign trail to make a comeback to Pakistani politics brought him back from the dead. Her death was the cause celebre that catapulted Zardari to the nation's highest office.
This is the man dogged with shady commercial deals that landed him in jail for 7 years.Known as "Mr Ten Percent" his shady deals included charges of money laundering in Switzerland, shady deals in Dubai and mysterious real estate acquisition in Britain and France.The worst allegation against him was the murder of his brother-in-law, Benazir's brother Murtaza Bhutto in 1996 in Karachi.
In 2007 under American and British brokered deal, President Musharraf dropped all charges against Zardari and allowed his wife to return to Pakistan to participate in the elections.
Musharraf, seen by the American and British as coming to an end of his shelf life and usefulness convinced him to return Pakistan to civilian rule and to allow not only Benazir Bhutto to return but another crooked politician ex-Premier Nawaz Sharif who was in exiled in Saudi Arabia.
It's turbulent times in Pakistan,inflation is running over 25%, the country foreign reserve is dwindling fast over the past few months and there is acute shortage of fuel and electricity.
Zardari biggest headache and challenge would be the restive Northwest Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan where the Talibans have gained a strong foothold and had Talibanizied the province with extreme form of Islam.
With two crooks running the country we would have to wait and see whether Pakistan would see true democracy and better economic development or would suffer even worse....
...a state of disrepair and despair.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Anwar's Trojan Horse:The Real Judas ?
Hantu Laut
This deserved a posting on the main page.It was posted by Rahman 332, a commentator, in response to my post - Putrajaya:'A Bridge Too Far'.It's a well written piece. I have no knowledge of the actual source of the article but it's certainly a good read.It could be mere speculation and have no basis.
I would leave it to readers to use their own discretion and make their own judgement.
Anwar's Trojan Horse
This deserved a posting on the main page.It was posted by Rahman 332, a commentator, in response to my post - Putrajaya:'A Bridge Too Far'.It's a well written piece. I have no knowledge of the actual source of the article but it's certainly a good read.It could be mere speculation and have no basis.
I would leave it to readers to use their own discretion and make their own judgement.
The Real Judas
Anwar Ibrahim wants BN to think the defections before 16 September are going to come from Sabah and Sarawak. This explains the focus and frenzy surrounding MPs from East Malaysia. Their movements are being monitored, text messages have been swirling about en bloc defections and some, like Yong Teck Lee and Bernard Giluk Dompok, have been dropping broad hints about wanting to abandon the BN ship.
But the unsuspecting BN leadership is completely unaware of Anwar's actual game plan. Sabah and Sarawak are the great diversions - Anwar's red herrings. Sure, he may eventually end up with some defectors from East Malaysia, but the real trigger that he wants to pull will be right under UMNO's nose. For Anwar, he needs to start with a bang. Something that will cause all other smaller component parties to tremble and quake in their boots leaving them with little choice but to jump en masse.
What Anwar wants to do is to show that he can go for the big scalps. Not your SAPP or UPKO small number of MPs, but from the senior UMNO front bench. What better way of triggering a mass exodus from BN than to show that you have top leaders from BN's biggest party crossing over into PKR? This is the big bang that Anwar has been working on. Two or three front benchers from UMNO plus five other second tier leaders will be enough to precipitate chaos and panic within the BN ranks. It will be the catalyst of a free-for-all ship abandonment as though sailors have spotted a plague-infested rat on deck.
So, who has Anwar marked as the real Judas in this most audacious of power grab in the history of Malaysian politics. Its not that difficult to answer. Think of someone most hard done by Abdullah Badawi and Najib Razak's gentleman's agreement to transfer power in 2010. Someone who had political wind in his sails after the March election only to now see his future in doubt as UMNO gets ready to pick younger leaders in its annual congress. Someone who way back when, had the most coziest of cozy relationship with Anwar.
Yes, Anwar is targeting Muhyiddin Yassin to be the Judas. Muhyiddin is said to have lined up at least three other front benchers and a handful more from the back benches. Many of these MPs are fed up of both Abdullah and Najib, and see the grass being far greener with Anwar. Many of them were also ardent Anwaristas when the Opposition Leader was climbing up the greasy pole of UMNO politics.
These crossovers are said to be mutually beneficial in more ways than one. Anwar knows that the current composition of Pakatan MPs in Parliament is almost half Malay and half non-Malay. If he only manages to woo non-Malay BN MPs to defect, he will effectively head a non-Malay dominated government. This would be hard for the Malay-majority electorate to accept not to mention institutions like the royalty, military, armed forces and civil service. Anwar, therefore, desperately needs Malay MPs to defect from BN. In order for this to happen, he needs a Malay BN leader with enough seniority to attract others to follow suit. Hence, Muhyiddin.
But that's not all. Anwar has already over-promised his buddies in DAP. He knows that he has to make Lim Kit Siang one of his Deputy Prime Ministers. That's not going to sit well with Malays, whether they are UMNO, PAS or PKR supporters. Regardless of the muhibbah rhetoric coming out of Pakatan and its acceptance by the Bangsar Starbucks Melayu, the heartland and grunt Malays cannot stand Kit Siang. To them he and his party stand for everything that is anti-Malay.
That being the case, Anwar has to counter-balance Kit Siang's appoitment as DPM with a heavyweight Malay politician as another deputy. Of course he could appoint Hadi Awang and complete the unholy trinity of Pakatan parties as PM and two DPMs, and he probably would offer Hadi the post anyway. But he knows that Hadi cannot be trusted. After all, it is Hadi and Nasharuddin Mat Isa that almost tore PAS out of Pakatan with their secret rendezvous with Abdullah. Anwar has neither forgiven nor forgotten this act of betrayal by Hadi. He also knows that during the Permatang Pauh by-election, it wasn't Hadi that came to pinch hit for him in the last few days to turn Malay opinion around in the light of Saiful Bukhari's religious oath that he was buggered by Anwar. Hadi came briefly, gave a 10 minute speech complaining of a cough and hot footed it out of there. Instead it was Nik Aziz Nik Mat that came to Anwar's rescue, using his aura as a pondok alim to persuade the faithful in Permatang Pauh not to believe Saiful's oath.
Anwar's preferred choice as DPM from PAS is not an MP. He is the man that whispers instructions into Nik Aziz's ear and he was the most senior PAS leader present when Anwar was declared winner after all the votes were tallied. Husam Musa cannot, for now, join a federal government because of state duties in Kelantan, but he is very much the bridge that Anwar wants to cultivate in PAS.
So with the bad blood between Anwar and Hadi, even if Anwar offers Hadi a DPM post it would be out of courtesy to keep Pakatan together. Which means he would need another senior Malay leader to be a third deputy and the de facto most senior deputy with Anwar's full confidence and trust. He could appoint Azmin, but many would be uncomfortable with that prospect. So who better than Muhyiddin - a senior cabinet minister with experience in government. An UMNO warlord who can attract support from UMNO Malays and prevent Anwar from looking too dependent on non-Malay support. And most crucially, someone who Anwar trusts because back in the days of Anwar as DPM, when he said jump, Muhyiddin jumped.
If BN leaders are looking at East Malaysia for potential jumpers, they are looking far away from where the threat really is. Anwar has secured Muhyiddin and its merely a matter of timing. Muhyddin has to deliver Anwar a handsome number of MPs in return for being made DPM under Anwar. That, according to sources, is underway and the count is increasing by the day.
The plan is simple yet clever. Obvious yet deceptive. BN is about to lose the kingdom from right under its nose.
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