Hantu Laut
Sometimes, it's difficult to separate the sheep from the goats.
Whether Ahmad Ismail is a bigot, defender of the faith or Pahlawan Melayu (Malay hero), the man is never short of controversies and strange as it may sound he somehow survives the dangerous waters of politics.People like him and Anwar Ibrahim seemed to have the nine lives.Even the cats would find it difficult to survive such deadly hurdles.
It wouldn't be lack of profundity to say that in every race, group or community there are bound to be the contemptuous black sheep.Ahmad's chauvinistic view is his and not the general perception of the Malay community.
In 2006 Ahmad was again in the limelight over his insolvency status that was widely reported in the media.
1.Umno's leadership will decide the fate of Datuk Ahmad Ismail, who was ordered to relinquish his post as a Penang island municipal councillor because he was bankrupt.
Penang Umno liaison committee secretary Datuk Azhar Ibrahim said it would leave it to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who is the committee chairman, to decide.
He said the matter would be discussed when Abdullah returned from his overseas trip.
It was reported yesterday that Ahmad, who is also a director of a firm linked to the Penang Outer Ring Road, had to relinquish his councillor's position as he was a bankrupt.(New Straits Times 24 May 2006)
2.Umno Bukit Bendera division chief Datuk Ahmad Ismail is adamant that he will not relinquish any of his posts.
Ahmad, who was declared a bankrupt, had been ordered to give up his Penang Island Municipal Council position and his Umno post.
He said he had obtained a stay of execution order from the High Court and lashed out at Chief Minister Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon for rushing to announce that he had been stripped of his councillor's post.
"I don't know why a small fry like me has been given such widespread publicity.
"I was declared a bankrupt because of a technicality and I have sorted it out.
"All this could have been avoided if the Chief Minister had checked his facts first," he said
(New Strait Times 26 May 2006 )
3.Bukit Bendera Umno Chief Datuk Ahmad Ismail is not bankrupt and will continue back as a member of the Pulau Pinang Town Council (MPPP).
Chief Minister Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon today said that he had received a letter from the Insolvency Department confirming that Ahmad was not bankrupt.
Yesterday, Ahmad had described the actions of the state government and the MPPP in terminating him from his post of a member of MPPP as being hasty and unreasonable.(Bernama 26 May 2006)
4.)Bukit Bendera Umno Branch chief Datuk Ahmad Ismail will keep his job of councillor in the Penang Island Municipal Council (MPPP).
Ahmad cleared his name today when the Penang High Court nullified a lower court ruling declaring him a bankrupt.
A jubilant Ahmad said he has received a letter from the state government confirming that he will be retained as MPPP councillor.
He said he was a "victim of circumstances". He acted as a guarantor for a RM1.8-million loan taken by a private company which had defaulted on the repayment.
"I thank Allah that it's all over now. I have cleared my name and now I am looking forward to serving the people of Bukit Bendera (and the MPPP)," he said.(Bernama 27 June 2006)
5.Bukit Bendera Umno division head Datuk Ahmad Ismail claimed that Koh and Chia did not honour their election promises, which included introducing a programme to eradicate poverty and inculcating entrepreneurship among the Malays in the city.
Describing the Malays in Penang as the victimised minority, he asked Koh and Chia to fulfill the pledges they made and asked them to hold discussions with Umno leaders to work out the programme for the Malays.(Bernama 27 Aug 2006)
Time is a great healer. This nasty episode would soon be forgotten and Ahmad would quietly return to his political wheeling-dealing, UMNO unchanged and unrepentant and Anwar still chasing his elusive dream.
This will the closing chapter of Ahmad Ismail's political boo-boo and we should forgive him for the outburst that was probably done in a fit of anger.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
What Happened In 1998 ?
Hantu Laut
Ahmad Ismail was a staunch supporter of Anwar Ibrahim during the initial period of Anwar's sodomy allegation and the sacking from his deputy premiership and from the party.
His defiance against the sacking of Anwar was much reported in various newspapers at that time.
Below are some of them:
1.The Umno Bukit Bendera division, which held a special meeting yesterday, decided to ask that Anwar be given a fair trial in defending himself against the allegations.
"As stated by Dr Mahathir before, we should not pronounce someone guilty until the courts have stated so.
"Anwar should be given a chance to explain his side to the people so that peace can be preserved in the country," the division said in a Press statement today.
The statement was signed by Bukit Bendera division chief Senator Datuk Ahmad Ismail, his deputy Azmi @ Iskandar S.H.O. Merican, its Youth wing leader Mohd Ismail Mohd Othman, deputy Youth chief Ismadi Abu Bakar, assistant secretary Syed Abdul Kadir Aidid, deputy Youth treasurer Azhar Ahmad and the division's Youth information chief Yahaya Ibrahim.
Other signatories were Bukit Bendera Wanita chief Haslinda Mohd Hashim and her deputy Asnah Hussain.
The division said it supported Dr Mahathir as Umno president and Prime Minister.
"We also support Anwar as both are personalities and leaders who are hard to replace," they added (New Strait Times 9 Sept 1998)
2.The state Umno's recent meeting which endorsed the supreme council's decision to expel former deputy party president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was held in proper manner.
Its deputy liaison committee chairman Datuk Mohd Shariff Omar, in saying this, dismissed Bukit Bendera division chief Datuk Ahmad Ismail's claims that the meeting was not properly held and therefore the decision taken by the nine division leaders present was null and void.(The Sun 14 Sept 1998)
3.The crowd of supporters at sacked deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's residence came alive tonight when his wife, Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail, took centre-stage to thank them for their support.
Another speaker was Senator Datuk Ahmad Ismail of Umno Bukit Bendera who said the division fully supports Anwar. Anwar, who addressed the crowd about 10pm, said he was touched by their support (The Sun 15 Sept 1998).
4.Datuk Ahmad Saad, Datuk Ahmad Ismail and other Penang politicians closely allied with Anwar attended a dinner at Datuk Abdullah's house on Saturday night.
Datuk Ahmad Saad, the acting divisional chief in Anwar's former constituency, said that the former No 2 should have refrained from attacking the party, and put his own interests on the backburner.
"When Pak Lah was dropped from the Cabinet in the 80s, he did not attack the government or anybody. He just kept quiet," he said, referring to the current Deputy Premier. (Straits Times 21 June 1999)
Is Ahmad Ismail a stooge or playing the racialist game just to get more supports from the Malays at the expense of UMNO
Ahmad Ismail was a staunch supporter of Anwar Ibrahim during the initial period of Anwar's sodomy allegation and the sacking from his deputy premiership and from the party.
His defiance against the sacking of Anwar was much reported in various newspapers at that time.
Below are some of them:
1.The Umno Bukit Bendera division, which held a special meeting yesterday, decided to ask that Anwar be given a fair trial in defending himself against the allegations.
"As stated by Dr Mahathir before, we should not pronounce someone guilty until the courts have stated so.
"Anwar should be given a chance to explain his side to the people so that peace can be preserved in the country," the division said in a Press statement today.
The statement was signed by Bukit Bendera division chief Senator Datuk Ahmad Ismail, his deputy Azmi @ Iskandar S.H.O. Merican, its Youth wing leader Mohd Ismail Mohd Othman, deputy Youth chief Ismadi Abu Bakar, assistant secretary Syed Abdul Kadir Aidid, deputy Youth treasurer Azhar Ahmad and the division's Youth information chief Yahaya Ibrahim.
Other signatories were Bukit Bendera Wanita chief Haslinda Mohd Hashim and her deputy Asnah Hussain.
The division said it supported Dr Mahathir as Umno president and Prime Minister.
"We also support Anwar as both are personalities and leaders who are hard to replace," they added (New Strait Times 9 Sept 1998)
2.The state Umno's recent meeting which endorsed the supreme council's decision to expel former deputy party president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was held in proper manner.
Its deputy liaison committee chairman Datuk Mohd Shariff Omar, in saying this, dismissed Bukit Bendera division chief Datuk Ahmad Ismail's claims that the meeting was not properly held and therefore the decision taken by the nine division leaders present was null and void.(The Sun 14 Sept 1998)
3.The crowd of supporters at sacked deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's residence came alive tonight when his wife, Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail, took centre-stage to thank them for their support.
Another speaker was Senator Datuk Ahmad Ismail of Umno Bukit Bendera who said the division fully supports Anwar. Anwar, who addressed the crowd about 10pm, said he was touched by their support (The Sun 15 Sept 1998).
4.Datuk Ahmad Saad, Datuk Ahmad Ismail and other Penang politicians closely allied with Anwar attended a dinner at Datuk Abdullah's house on Saturday night.
Datuk Ahmad Saad, the acting divisional chief in Anwar's former constituency, said that the former No 2 should have refrained from attacking the party, and put his own interests on the backburner.
"When Pak Lah was dropped from the Cabinet in the 80s, he did not attack the government or anybody. He just kept quiet," he said, referring to the current Deputy Premier. (Straits Times 21 June 1999)
Is Ahmad Ismail a stooge or playing the racialist game just to get more supports from the Malays at the expense of UMNO
Musuh Dalam Selimut ?
Hantu Laut
At last UMNO took action against Ahmad Ismail.He is suspended from the party for three years. Better late than never.The action had saved BN from disintegration.
Rumours abound that Ahmad Ismail is a plant of Anwar Ibrahim to destroy UMNO from within.It's an ingenious idea to break up the BN.What better ways than raising racial remarks to infuriate your partners which may cause them to leave the coalition. A conspiracy theory of the inference kind.Improbable but not impossible.
I received the article below written in Bahasa Melayu (Malay) from one of my commentators.
Pahlawan Melayu atau Pengkhianat Bangsa?
Perwatakan dan gaya Dato' Ahmad Ismail menampakkan beliau seorang Panglima Perang Besar bangsa Melayu yang begitu garang dan tegas. Seolah-olah tidak ada seinci pun yang akan diberikan oleh panglima ini dalam menegakkan kedaulatan dan keagungan bangsa
Tetapi adakah ini kebenaran atau persepsi semata-mata? Kalau benar ia hanya persepsi, silat persepsi sebegini rupa hanya boleh diajar oleh seorang ahli politik sahaja. Ahli politik yang ketandusan prinsip. Ahli politik yang dahulunya berwajah pejuang bangsa dan kini sudah bertukar rupa untuk menjadi musuh bangsa Melayu nombor satu, Anwar Ibrahim.
Seni halus yang dimainkan oleh Ahmad Ismail berbau Anwar. Anwar dengan liciknya menarik perhatian orang ramai kenegeri Sabah dan Sarawak sedangkan pergerakannya banyak tertumpu di Semenanjung Malaysia, terutamanya di negeri kuatnya Pulau Pinang.
Fakta yang sahih menunjukkan Anwar Ibrahim telah mengambil Ahmad Ismail sebagai anak didik politiknya ketika Anwar menjadi Ketua Perhubungan Negeri. Dari ahli biasa, Ahmad Ismail diangkat oleh Anwar hingga beliau memegang tampuk kepimpinan Bukit Bendera. Dalam tempoh ini, segala kemahuan dan nafsu duniawi Ahmad Ismail dipuaskan oleh Anwar. Ahmad Ismail begitu terhutang budi dengan jasa yang telah ditabur oleh mentor politiknya.
Pada tahun 2008, Anwar meraih hutang budinya dari Ahmad Ismail. Namun, bukanlah kenangan kisah silam sahaja yang berjaya membuat Ahmad Ismail mengkhianat bangsa sendiri. Kerakusan dan ketamakan Ahmad Ismail menjadi pendorong utama mengapa dia sanggup menggadai maruah diri, maruah bangsa dan maruah UMNO.
Setelah Pulau Pinang jatuh ketangan Pakatan Rakyat. Dunia Ahamad Ismail menjadi semakin gelap. Dia seolah-olah karam dalam lautan politik yang bergelora ini.Hanya Anwar sahaja yang boleh menyelamatkannya.
Dengan sekelip mata, Ahmad Ismail dengan relanya menjayakan wayang dan mengupas agenda sebenar Anwar Ibrahim yang telah menggegar negara baru-baru ini. Ketika sidang akhbar itu berjalan, pesan Anwar Ibrahim bergema di dalam Ahmad Ismail – "Bakar semangat Melayu, Pastikan BN berpecah tanggal 16 Sepetember ini. Pastikan Gerakan dan MCA keluar dari Barisan. Bila aku kembali berkuasa kau akan menerima habuannya."
Tanggungjawab UMNO ialah untuk memperjuangkan nasib anak bangsa, dan dengan nada yang sama, kepada pemimpin yang sengaja membelakangi tanggungjawab ini demi kepentingan peribadi, UMNO harus berani menjatuhkan hukuman seberat beratnya. Kerana UMNO alaf baru ini tiada tempat untuk pengkhianat anak bangsa dan boneka Anwar Ibrahim seperti Ahmad Ismail ini.
Also read:
At last UMNO took action against Ahmad Ismail.He is suspended from the party for three years. Better late than never.The action had saved BN from disintegration.
Rumours abound that Ahmad Ismail is a plant of Anwar Ibrahim to destroy UMNO from within.It's an ingenious idea to break up the BN.What better ways than raising racial remarks to infuriate your partners which may cause them to leave the coalition. A conspiracy theory of the inference kind.Improbable but not impossible.
I received the article below written in Bahasa Melayu (Malay) from one of my commentators.
Pahlawan Melayu atau Pengkhianat Bangsa?
Perwatakan dan gaya Dato' Ahmad Ismail menampakkan beliau seorang Panglima Perang Besar bangsa Melayu yang begitu garang dan tegas. Seolah-olah tidak ada seinci pun yang akan diberikan oleh panglima ini dalam menegakkan kedaulatan dan keagungan bangsa
Tetapi adakah ini kebenaran atau persepsi semata-mata? Kalau benar ia hanya persepsi, silat persepsi sebegini rupa hanya boleh diajar oleh seorang ahli politik sahaja. Ahli politik yang ketandusan prinsip. Ahli politik yang dahulunya berwajah pejuang bangsa dan kini sudah bertukar rupa untuk menjadi musuh bangsa Melayu nombor satu, Anwar Ibrahim.
Seni halus yang dimainkan oleh Ahmad Ismail berbau Anwar. Anwar dengan liciknya menarik perhatian orang ramai kenegeri Sabah dan Sarawak sedangkan pergerakannya banyak tertumpu di Semenanjung Malaysia, terutamanya di negeri kuatnya Pulau Pinang.
Fakta yang sahih menunjukkan Anwar Ibrahim telah mengambil Ahmad Ismail sebagai anak didik politiknya ketika Anwar menjadi Ketua Perhubungan Negeri. Dari ahli biasa, Ahmad Ismail diangkat oleh Anwar hingga beliau memegang tampuk kepimpinan Bukit Bendera. Dalam tempoh ini, segala kemahuan dan nafsu duniawi Ahmad Ismail dipuaskan oleh Anwar. Ahmad Ismail begitu terhutang budi dengan jasa yang telah ditabur oleh mentor politiknya.
Pada tahun 2008, Anwar meraih hutang budinya dari Ahmad Ismail. Namun, bukanlah kenangan kisah silam sahaja yang berjaya membuat Ahmad Ismail mengkhianat bangsa sendiri. Kerakusan dan ketamakan Ahmad Ismail menjadi pendorong utama mengapa dia sanggup menggadai maruah diri, maruah bangsa dan maruah UMNO.
Setelah Pulau Pinang jatuh ketangan Pakatan Rakyat. Dunia Ahamad Ismail menjadi semakin gelap. Dia seolah-olah karam dalam lautan politik yang bergelora ini.Hanya Anwar sahaja yang boleh menyelamatkannya.
Dengan sekelip mata, Ahmad Ismail dengan relanya menjayakan wayang dan mengupas agenda sebenar Anwar Ibrahim yang telah menggegar negara baru-baru ini. Ketika sidang akhbar itu berjalan, pesan Anwar Ibrahim bergema di dalam Ahmad Ismail – "Bakar semangat Melayu, Pastikan BN berpecah tanggal 16 Sepetember ini. Pastikan Gerakan dan MCA keluar dari Barisan. Bila aku kembali berkuasa kau akan menerima habuannya."
Tanggungjawab UMNO ialah untuk memperjuangkan nasib anak bangsa, dan dengan nada yang sama, kepada pemimpin yang sengaja membelakangi tanggungjawab ini demi kepentingan peribadi, UMNO harus berani menjatuhkan hukuman seberat beratnya. Kerana UMNO alaf baru ini tiada tempat untuk pengkhianat anak bangsa dan boneka Anwar Ibrahim seperti Ahmad Ismail ini.
Also read:
Saya Akan Ambil Tindakan Terhadap Utusan Malaysia & Zaini Hassan
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
My Elusive Dream
Hantu Laut
Despite all those earnest declarations by Anwar of taking over the government latest by 16th September there seemed to be something missing in his calculations of what he called "we have the numbers". There appears to be no logical progression to those numbers under the present circumstances.
Anwar may have to wait until the next elections to try capture the Federal government.His sudden realization that it would be almost next to impossible for him to takeover the government this term unless there is a big exodus from almost all of the non-UMNO and non-PBB components of the BN or a mixture of all including significant number from UMNO.
The biggest stumbling block for him would be lawmakers from UMNO, MCA and PBB in Sarawak who are not likely to switch camp at the moment.
Without the full thrust of MCA and those from Sabah and Sarawak, he wouldn't have a chance of taking over the government.He may only get some of those from Sabah and Sarawak and, maybe, some from MCA, but wouldn't be enough to grab the trophy from Abdullah.It is not as easy as many of us would like to think.
With the exception of Yong Teck Lee of SAPP, other leaders in the BN components may not want to jeopardise their already well-rewarded positions. Only those who have worked out the risk factor, disgruntled and have nothing to lose would cross over to Pakatan.
Without deserters from UMNO and PBB, the maximum he could get from Sabah and Sarawak would be at best only give him 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak, giving him a maximum of 26, not enough to form a simple majority.With only Sabah and Sarawak and without massive defections from MCA, he has very little chance of success.
MCA has 15 parliamentary seats , MIC 3 and Gerakan 2.He has to take at least two-thirds of those seats including the 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak to have a comfortable majority.It is not going to be an easy task for him as he had made it clear he is not offering any monetary benefits or positions to those who wish to cross over.
Politics in Malaysia is all about money, positions and status.Even those who started with a noble value would eventually ended up licking their conscience.It would be like looking for a needle in a haystack to find a politician with one honest bone in them and with strong conviction to only serve the people and nation. Anwar should know this, he came from the same political school.
Would MCA get better treatment if it joins PR (Pakatan Rakyat) with arch rival DAP in there with 28 seats compared to MCA 15 assuming MCA moved over en-bloc? With the two tigers in DAP, Karpal Singh and Lim Kit Siang, MCA would be food for the tigers.
The political landscape would take a drastic and scary change if MCA and all the other non-UMNO parliamentarians crossed over to Pakatan Rakyat. It would be completely new dawn in Malaysian politics and the end of 'ketuanan Melayu' that our former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad kept reminding the Malays to safeguard.
Below would be the scenario if Anwar can successfully wrestles the Federal government away from Abdullah on the assumption that no UMNO and PBB parliamentarians joined in the crossover.
Pakatan Rakyat new profile:
Non-Malay seats
------------------
DAP 28
Sabah(non-UMNO) 11
Sarawak(non-PBB) 16
PKR(non-Malay) 11
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20
--------------------------------
Total 86
Malay seats
------------------
PKR 20
PAS 23
----------------------------------
Total 43
That would give him 129 seats, just enough to form a weak coalition and for the first time a government without Malay majority. A true Bangsa Malaysia government widely promoted by Anwar Ibrahim.
The above scenario is based on UMNO and PBB not losing any of their parlimentarians to the crossover and would stay as opposition until the next elections.
Another hypothetical scenario, remote but not impossible, is the making of a new and more powerful all-Malay coalition comprising UMNO, PAS, PKR and PBB with 147 seats in Parliament.
Without significant numbers from UMNO and other BN components joining him there is little chance of Anwar taking over the government in the immediate future.
Another stumbling block for Anwar is from his own coalition partners, PAS and DAP.
Lim Kit Siang of DAP had made it clear that his party would not support defections from the BN if based on promises of money and positions.Without these two incentives and knowing the true nature of our politicians, how many would want to cross over to ground zero ?
DAP knew bringing in other coalition partners would erode their power and influence in Pakatan.They are prepared to wait till the next elections to increase their intake of Chinese seats which they are highly likely to succeed as by then Gerakan and MCA would probably be history.
They have waited for this day of glory and are not going to let a moment of greed to destroy what they have fought for over four decades.With Penang and Perak under its control and significant influence in the Selangor state government and well represented in the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur they are not in a hurry to be a player at Federal level.
PAS have also sounded the same sentiment albeit on different issues.If there should be racial imbalance in the Pakatan line-up where Malay representation is not adequately met,PAS is likely to stay away from such move.
Both DAP and PAS are not in a hurry to grab the Federal government. Only Anwar is prepared for a coup de grace against Abdullah's government, all for his secret agenda, under the guises of equality for all Malaysians.
Bangsa Malaysia, maybe, an elusive dream after all.
The month of October will see the massive shifting of support from the Abdullah/Najib's camp to the Mahathir/Razaleigh/Muhyiddin's camp.
The only possible scenario that going to happen before the year end is the ousting of Abdullah and Najib as President and Deputy President of UMNO respectively, if they can't stabilise the tense and dangerous political climate the next few months.
Now Abdullah has to face a bigger problem to his already mounting and insurmountable problems.
Not only he has to play kung-fu with Anwar Ibrahim, he has to face an even more potent opponent, his old guru, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad who had declared to rejoin UMNO.
Despite all those earnest declarations by Anwar of taking over the government latest by 16th September there seemed to be something missing in his calculations of what he called "we have the numbers". There appears to be no logical progression to those numbers under the present circumstances.
Anwar may have to wait until the next elections to try capture the Federal government.His sudden realization that it would be almost next to impossible for him to takeover the government this term unless there is a big exodus from almost all of the non-UMNO and non-PBB components of the BN or a mixture of all including significant number from UMNO.
The biggest stumbling block for him would be lawmakers from UMNO, MCA and PBB in Sarawak who are not likely to switch camp at the moment.
Without the full thrust of MCA and those from Sabah and Sarawak, he wouldn't have a chance of taking over the government.He may only get some of those from Sabah and Sarawak and, maybe, some from MCA, but wouldn't be enough to grab the trophy from Abdullah.It is not as easy as many of us would like to think.
With the exception of Yong Teck Lee of SAPP, other leaders in the BN components may not want to jeopardise their already well-rewarded positions. Only those who have worked out the risk factor, disgruntled and have nothing to lose would cross over to Pakatan.
Without deserters from UMNO and PBB, the maximum he could get from Sabah and Sarawak would be at best only give him 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak, giving him a maximum of 26, not enough to form a simple majority.With only Sabah and Sarawak and without massive defections from MCA, he has very little chance of success.
MCA has 15 parliamentary seats , MIC 3 and Gerakan 2.He has to take at least two-thirds of those seats including the 11 from Sabah and 16 from Sarawak to have a comfortable majority.It is not going to be an easy task for him as he had made it clear he is not offering any monetary benefits or positions to those who wish to cross over.
Politics in Malaysia is all about money, positions and status.Even those who started with a noble value would eventually ended up licking their conscience.It would be like looking for a needle in a haystack to find a politician with one honest bone in them and with strong conviction to only serve the people and nation. Anwar should know this, he came from the same political school.
Would MCA get better treatment if it joins PR (Pakatan Rakyat) with arch rival DAP in there with 28 seats compared to MCA 15 assuming MCA moved over en-bloc? With the two tigers in DAP, Karpal Singh and Lim Kit Siang, MCA would be food for the tigers.
The political landscape would take a drastic and scary change if MCA and all the other non-UMNO parliamentarians crossed over to Pakatan Rakyat. It would be completely new dawn in Malaysian politics and the end of 'ketuanan Melayu' that our former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad kept reminding the Malays to safeguard.
Below would be the scenario if Anwar can successfully wrestles the Federal government away from Abdullah on the assumption that no UMNO and PBB parliamentarians joined in the crossover.
Pakatan Rakyat new profile:
Non-Malay seats
------------------
DAP 28
Sabah(non-UMNO) 11
Sarawak(non-PBB) 16
PKR(non-Malay) 11
MCA/MIC/Gerakan 20
--------------------------------
Total 86
Malay seats
------------------
PKR 20
PAS 23
----------------------------------
Total 43
That would give him 129 seats, just enough to form a weak coalition and for the first time a government without Malay majority. A true Bangsa Malaysia government widely promoted by Anwar Ibrahim.
The above scenario is based on UMNO and PBB not losing any of their parlimentarians to the crossover and would stay as opposition until the next elections.
Another hypothetical scenario, remote but not impossible, is the making of a new and more powerful all-Malay coalition comprising UMNO, PAS, PKR and PBB with 147 seats in Parliament.
Without significant numbers from UMNO and other BN components joining him there is little chance of Anwar taking over the government in the immediate future.
Another stumbling block for Anwar is from his own coalition partners, PAS and DAP.
Lim Kit Siang of DAP had made it clear that his party would not support defections from the BN if based on promises of money and positions.Without these two incentives and knowing the true nature of our politicians, how many would want to cross over to ground zero ?
DAP knew bringing in other coalition partners would erode their power and influence in Pakatan.They are prepared to wait till the next elections to increase their intake of Chinese seats which they are highly likely to succeed as by then Gerakan and MCA would probably be history.
They have waited for this day of glory and are not going to let a moment of greed to destroy what they have fought for over four decades.With Penang and Perak under its control and significant influence in the Selangor state government and well represented in the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur they are not in a hurry to be a player at Federal level.
PAS have also sounded the same sentiment albeit on different issues.If there should be racial imbalance in the Pakatan line-up where Malay representation is not adequately met,PAS is likely to stay away from such move.
Both DAP and PAS are not in a hurry to grab the Federal government. Only Anwar is prepared for a coup de grace against Abdullah's government, all for his secret agenda, under the guises of equality for all Malaysians.
Bangsa Malaysia, maybe, an elusive dream after all.
The month of October will see the massive shifting of support from the Abdullah/Najib's camp to the Mahathir/Razaleigh/Muhyiddin's camp.
The only possible scenario that going to happen before the year end is the ousting of Abdullah and Najib as President and Deputy President of UMNO respectively, if they can't stabilise the tense and dangerous political climate the next few months.
Now Abdullah has to face a bigger problem to his already mounting and insurmountable problems.
Not only he has to play kung-fu with Anwar Ibrahim, he has to face an even more potent opponent, his old guru, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad who had declared to rejoin UMNO.
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