Sunday, December 14, 2008

Malaysia's Economic Outlook for 2009/10

Hantu Laut

Below is the economic outlook for Malaysia for 2009/10 period forecasted by the Economist Intelligence Unit.


Outlook for 2009-10
  • Political uncertainty and instability are unlikely to dissipate in the months ahead, despite an expected orderly transfer of power from the prime minister, Abdullah Badawi, to the deputy prime minister, Najib Razak, in March 2009.
  • The leader of the opposition alliance, Anwar Ibrahim, will continue with his campaign to destabilise the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) government by persuading BN legislators to switch to the opposition.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the BN coalition to remain in power over the forecast period. The BN still has a sufficiently large majority to pass the bulk of new legislation unchallenged.
  • Following downward revisions made to our global economic growth forecasts, we now expect real GDP to grow by 3.1% in 2009, down from 4.6% previously. Growth will remain sluggish in 2010.
  • We have revised down our forecast for consumer price inflation, which is now expected to average 2.4% in 2009, down from 3.5% previously.
  • The ringgit is expected to depreciate against the US dollar in 2009, averaging M$3.45:US$1, before strengthening to M$3.33:US$1 in 2010.
  • The merchandise trade surplus will fall to US$32bn in 2009, from an estimated US$39.4bn in 2008, as a downturn in Malaysia's leading export markets lowers demand for a range of Malaysian goods.
I believe the forecast by EIU of real GDP of 3.1% is a bit on the high side.My forecast is from 2% and possibly into negative territory if the government do not increase the stimulus package of RM7 billion and if the global economy shows no sign of improvement during the 1st half of 2009.

The true picture of what to come will only be known by the 1st Quarter of 2009 when the slowdown bites in.

Surprisingly, Malaysian Insider carry what looked like the same report but with completely different figures.If it comes from the same source(EIU) than Malaysian Insider needs a lot of explaining to do why those figures were altered.The Malaysian Insider's article here.


Saturday, December 13, 2008

'Skim Cepat Kaya' Cara America

Hantu Laut

The world are full of all kind of crooks. Watch out for those elegantly dressed in Armani suits, suave and can effortlessly smooth-talked you into parting with your fat wallet without a hint of suspicion because you are dumb enough to judge a book by its cover.

Hedge funds are now under scrutiny for fraudulent practices and are likely to be the next big financial meltdown dragging the world into bigger financial chaos.


Malaysia is no exception to "Skim Cepat Kaya" or "Ganda Wang Anda" get rich quick pyramid scams.

The Americans are no less inventive when it comes to dirty rotten scoundrel's inventiveness to cheat the public.In fact he is even smarter than the few Ahmads and Chongs that got caught in this country and charged in court for money laundering.

The Malaysian scams are crude by comparison to the American sophisticated scams called hedge funds.

Suggested reading:

Hedge funds 'facing credit storm'
US bankers facing fraud charges
Credit crisis claims hedge fund

Below is an article from BBC on one such fantastic scam that went undetected for many years and was only exposed by the culprit himself.

$50bn fraud charge at hedge fund

Wall Street sign
The Madoff fraud could be one of the biggest yet

The former chairman of the Nasdaq stock market has been arrested and charged with securities fraud, in what may be one of the biggest fraud cases yet.

Bernard Madoff ran a hedge fund which ran up $50bn (£33.5bn) of fraudulent losses and which he called "one big lie", prosecutors allege.

Mr Madoff is alleged to have used money from new investors to pay off existing investors in the fund.

His lawyer said he would fight to get through these "unfortunate events".

The 70-year-old has been released on $10m bail.

High-profile victims

Bramdean Alternatives has emerged as a victim of the fraud, with 9.5% of its investments exposed to the New York broker, it said in a statement on its website.

Nicola Horlick, the high profile fund manager labelled superwoman by the UK press, is the company's nominated fund manager.

The collapse of Madoff is likely to accelerate the disappearance of hedge funds
Robert Peston

In an interview earlier this year with the Financial Times, Ms Horlick praised Mr Madoff.

"He is someone who is very, very good at calling the US equity market," she said.

She added: "This guy has managed to return 1% -1.2% per month, year after year after year."

'Pyramid scheme'

Mr Madoff founded Bernard L.Madoff Investment Securities in 1960, but also ran a separate hedge fund business.

According to the US Attorney's criminal complaint filed in court, Mr Madoff told at least three employees on Wednesday that the hedge fund business - which served up to 25 clients and had $17.1bn of money under management - was a fraud and had been insolvent for years, losing at least $50bn.Read more........

Friday, December 12, 2008

Images From Our Colonial Past :The Woolley Collection Part III

Hantu Laut

George Cathcart Woolley(1876-1947), a former administrator 0f the North Borneo Chartered Company bequeathed an invaluable collection of photographs and other memorabilia dating to 1909.His collection provides an important record of people and events in Sabah's early history.The collection is known as The Woolley Bequest.

Below are some of the images from his collection.

Click to enlarge












A Murut man 1909.













Harvesting padi 1915













Si Glamut, a Tagal Murut 1908.












A policeman of the British North Borneo Chartered Company Constabulary with his wife at Sipitang 1910.

More to come.

Mahathir's Most Profound

Hantu Laut

"For 50 years political stability was what attracted investors. Now a weak government has tried to regain popularity by pandering to the demands of extremists. The floodgates are open and all kinds of sensitive issues are being debated. The result is the resurgence of racism on the part of all ethnic groups, " he said.

Probably the most profound statement made by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad since he left office.He thinks Malaysia is unlikely to achieve Vision 2020 as envisioned by him when he was Prime Minister.

I share his views that the present government is weak and was trying to appease the different racial groups in the country but have achieved the opposite, there are more racial and religious tensions now than ever before.Not only there is a tendency to move toward Islamism, even minority groups are pushing their own extreme agenda of their own version of their religions.One such group is Hindraf.

The one that have taken the extremity of racial and religious issues are the Indians under Hindraf, conveying an over-exaggeration of mistreatment of Indians in this country.Most Malaysian Indians are now ardent supporter of Anwar Ibrahim's PKR as one can see from the turnout at his ceramah.Although many Malaysians might not agree with me I believe Hindraf is a religious extremists organisation and highly motivated by politics and Hindu extremism.

PPP, an insignificant Indian led party and a member of BN have jumped on the bandwagon of anti-ISA and threatened the government of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi that it would leave the BN
if the ISA is not abolish.

Most small components of the BN were scaredy cats when the BN was almighty and wouldn't dare squeak a word of dissent or disagreement on anything including the ISA.Their leaders were very happy with UMNO and the BN leadership then.

Political opportunism is a good as 'Necessity is the mother of invention'