Judging Najib

Hantu Laut

Kuala Terengganu (KT), the last time I was there must be over twenty years ago when it was still a sleepy little town and the Primula Hotel just open its doors for the first time.

Terengganu and Kelantan share some similarity with Sabah. Facing the South China Sea, somehow,blessed these three states with some of the nicest beaches and coral reefs in the country.Similarly, they have also been thorns in the BN's flesh before, for being the only states that ever fell to the oppositions, long before the March 8 General Elections.

Kelantan has always been a PAS stronghold and the people have no love lost with UMNO.Kelantanese are rare breed among all Malays and are the most parochial and conservative.It is also the only state where the Chinese are very assimilated with local Malays, speaking the lingua franca, which is the Kelantanese Malay and conspicuously adopting some Malay culture and only practice the Chinese culture with less conspicuousness.Not unlike Indonesia, but very unlike the rest of Malaysia, sometimes, it is difficult to tell a Malay from a Chinese just by listening to his speech in Kelantanese Malay.Most Indonesian Chinese speak Bahasa Indonesia  among themselves and even when they are overseas.Kelantan almost fell to the BN in the 2004 Elections.

Sabah became an opposition state in 1985 when personal clash between Harris Salleh, the then Chief Minister of Sabah resulted in him sacking Joseph Pairin Kitingan, a minister in his cabinet, who later formed a new party PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah), contested and won the state elections.Pairin became chief minister and ruled Sabah as opposition under PBS for almost two terms.

Terengganu fell to PAS in 1999.Mahathir quickly abrogate the oil royalty payment to the state and stated that the Federal government was under no obligation to give the money to the state government.It was a kind of sanction against Terengganu for voting PAS.The state reverted to BN in 2004 when Malaysians were euphoric about Badawai's clean image and gave him a thumping victory at the polls. The people had high expectations that 'Mr Clean' as he used to be popularly known would bring, as promised, reforms and clean up the administration of corruptions and abuse of power.That failed promise would cost him dearly.The euphoria turned to disgust. The thumping victory he got in 2004 turned out to be the biggest embarrassment for the BN in the 2008 General Elections.It lost its two-thirds majority, lost 5 states to the oppositions and revived the political career of Anwar Ibrahim.

Abdullah is not by any definition cut from the same cloth as former strongman and former Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad.After 22 years of Mahathir's autocratic ways Malaysians are not used to his meekly style.His weak leadership, inconsistencies and wanting to please everybody took a heavy toll on his leadership and personality.He was eventually pressured to step down by his own party and hand over the reins to his deputy in a transition deal that will see his exit as PM and President of the party in March 2009.

Can Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak restore BN's former glory ?

The testing ground for Najib's future as Prime Minister and the future of UMNO would be Kuala Terengganu.If UMNO wins the by-election on the 17th of this month than we can safely agree with former PM Mahathir than it was Abdullah's leadership that was the cause of BN poor showing in the March 2008 Elections.If UMNO loses, than it, maybe, sayonara for the party in the next general elections, unless Najib can quickly initiates reforms expected by the people.

The loss of Permatang Pauh to Anwar Ibrahim should not be used as a barometer to gauge Najib's and UMNO's popularity.It has always been Anwar's stronghold and has not wavered since the day he was thrown in prison.The fact is, his popularity actually rose while he was in prison.No matter what muck you made out of him, Anwar Ibrahim is still very popular among the youths and this group now holds the majority in the electoral votes.

They see in Anwar the embodiment of a new Malaysia, one that is free of corruptions and abuse of power.A perception that may not necessary hold water.

Although, I wouldn't exactly equate it to be the same, the misreading of Pak Lah was probably one of the best examples of "Judging a book by its cover",  even the man nearest to him have admitted he made a mistake choosing him and had soured the relationship to become his biggest opponent.

In the March 2008 Elections, UMNO won the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat on a wafer-thin majority against PAS. The Chinese votes probably tipped the scale in UMNO's favour.There appears to be equal division of the Malay votes between UMNO and PAS and the minuscule Chinese votes had become crucial for both political parties.The Chinese in KT had become the balancing power and kingmaker.Can Najib entice the Chinese to vote for UMNO's candidate Wan Ahmad Farid Salleh, reputedly to be very arrogant and unpopular?

Najib himself carry the same baggage tag.Not only the 'sombong' tag but also excess baggage, which would not endear him to the Terengganu voters. Anwar's PKR is trying very hard to drag his name through the mire by reminding the voters of his association with the murdered Mongolian model Althantuya Sariibuu, an allegation that was never proven but stays on as ammunition in the opposition's camp.If that's not enough, his image took an even more vile impression by his wife's lack of social skills.Grace may not be in every woman's makeup, it's partly nature, partly nurture. Social graces and etiquette are certainly nurtured.

It appears that Najib is going all out to win this battle.It was reported  that he was dishing out humongous amount of contracts to small-time Malay contractors through a method he called 'lucky draw' which he claimed "a world first" He said"In this lucky draw, every one wins.Every one gets a contract".He further reiterates that there will be more projects if UMNO won the by-election.

The contracts valued between RM30,000 to RM200,000 were distributed at random to contractors by bringing them on stage to click on a computer.The computer randomly picked the contract.No vetting and no question asked.Not to worry, no need to check the background of those so-called contractors, most of the contracts would eventually land in the hands of the China men.With a huge war chest, it would be hard to break the BN's money bag.Asia Sentinel has the report here.

It would be a neck to neck race to the finishing line and PAS seems to be the favourite among Pakatan supporters, punters and the blogging fraternity, but Najib might just pull this one off.

Winning the KT by-election would be his saving grace.Do not rule out possibility of the Malays returning to the fold.

Is This Truly Our Country ? :Part II

Hantu Laut

The irony is, the certificate confirming one is a bumiputra had not escaped the covetousness of those with crooked mind. The certificate were well sought after by some Chinese businessmen who wanted to get their hands on cheap NT (Native Title) land.The racket involved paying bribes to ketua kampong(village chief) or native chief for him to swear that you were born in his kampong (village) and have known you from the day you were born.This government appointed ketua kampong would, without any shame, joyfully issue you with a Statutory Declaration confirming the lie, as long as you pay him some money.This sham became so widespread that the government had to withdraw the issuance of such certificate putting those who qualify in a dilemma.

The most serious threat to those who are truly Malaysians are the illegal immigrants that have been issued with Malaysian identity cards making them more bumiputras than the indigenous people.Some of them have been accepted as bumiputras and enjoy all the privileges of this highly sought-after status.In most major towns, Sabahans are overwhelmed by them. In some areas the ratio is so high one could feel the presence of being either in the Philippines or Indonesia.

The illegals came bringing with them their distasteful culture and disgusting social habits.In the past, before the mass migration of these aliens to this land, Sabahans need not lock the doors to their homes and cars.There may be some truth that crimes came with progress but it is even more true that crimes are the products of poverty rather than progress.The higher the rate of poverty the higher would be the crime rate.Undoubtedly, they have brought with them not only poverty but also a culture of crime.

Sabah has never had roadside stalls culture until the arrival of these illegal immigrants where rickety stalls of all shapes and sizes can be found on roadsides and on open spaces in town centre selling anything from fish,vegetables,fruits,cooked food to whatever they fancy they could sell.These stalls are dirty, unsightly,unhygienic and as illegal as the illegals themselves, most have no permit and erected the makeshift structure without proper approval from the relevant authorities.For some unknown reasons the authorities have turned a blind eye to this lawless behaviour.

Hawker's stalls have always been part of the culture and still are but there is a big difference between Sabah and the Philippines,Indonesia and Peninsula Malaysia where road side and outdoor stalls have always been part of the landscape.

In Sabah, in the past, most food stalls are found in Chinese coffee shops where they have proper running water, electricity,tables and chairs and a cleaner environment.It was not uncommon to find Malay food stall in the same coffee shop as Chinese food stall and sharing the same facilities.Such scenario can still be seen in some of the major towns in Sabah where people from different racial and religious background and varied social structure sharing the same food outlet without any social hangups and completely impervious to religious constraints.Sabah was the epitome of racial integration and religious tolerance. That's was before, things are slowly changing.

Muslims in Sabah have begun to follow their counterparts in the Peninsula in taking to more extreme views of Islamic teachings, restraining themselves from mixing freely with Malaysians of other faiths.This clique culture, mixing only with people of your own faith, is an obstacle to integration.This change of attitude was brought about by religious teachers brought over from Peninsula Malaysia. Whether it was an isolated case or a general trend among these religious teachers, a friend once told me that he was shocked when an ustaz told him Muslims are forbidden from visiting non-Muslim's house.

In Sabah there were many inter marriages among different faiths.Those who marry Muslims converted to Islam but still maintained strong link with their non-Muslim families.It is quite common to find Muslims ,Christians,Buddish and even atheists in one family brought together by marriages.Religion has never been an issue here and it is quite normal for Muslims to go to church to attend funerals or weddings of close friends or relatives.These are things that religious teachers from the Peninsula are not used to and looked upon with disdain.

For many Sabahans the fear of losing their birth rights and fear of the alien community taking over political and economic power in the future are real.There are as many aliens, if not more, as locals and one may ask whether this is truly our country or we have become refugees in our own land.

The promise to flush them out has fizzled out.It is 'All Quiet On The Sabah Front'.The future Prime Minister is now busy making new set of promises to the people of Trengganu and the Sabah politicians are back to their lairs and their seistas.

A Bleak Economic Outlook

Hantu Laut

Making economic forecasts and predictions can be a daunting task.It becomes even more difficult when the global market is chaotic and when there are too many uncertainties.Although, no economic forecast, not expected to, anyway, had come close to be hundred percent accurate, it would be easier to predict future trends on a stable environment rather than predicting the outcome in a volatile environment.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) had revised its forecast for 2009 for the third time now.It has finally come to the same forecast I did on Malaysia in December 2008, growth of 2 per cent possibly down to negative territory.The EIU had revised its forecast from 3.1 to 1.5 per cent, which is within the range of my forecast.

Due to its fairly diversified resources, Malaysia's economic contraction would be less severe than countries like Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

On 14th December 2008 I wrote "I believe the forecast by EIU of real GDP of 3.1% is a bit on the high side.My forecast is from 2% and possibly into negative territory if the government do not increase the stimulus package of RM7 billion and if the global economy shows no sign of improvement during the 1st half of 2009.

The true picture of what to come will only be known by the 1st Quarter of 2009 when the slowdown bites in"

The full impact of the recession has not arrived yet making those in government taking it easy and less guarded against the possible negative outcome.

With the slowing down of exports beginning November 2008 and expected to worsen in the 1st Quarter of 2009, the full impact of the recession would only be felt in the 2nd Quarter 2009.

The electronic industry is expected to suffer the most with serious decline in production and export.The downturn will see significant retrenchments resulting in high unemployment in this sector.

The notion of some economists of the 'decoupling' of Asian economies from that of the West is just that, notional.

We are just later recipients of what happened earlier in the West.

Is This Truly Our Country ? Part I

Hantu Laut

Bakri Musa, a Malaysian who lives in California often write about his native homeland, particularly on socio-political issues.

In his recent article "Minorities in America and Malaysia" he made profound and assertive embodiment of the failure of integration of the Chinese and Indians in Malaysia and migration of Malaysians Chinese and other Asians to Western nations.

Being the second largest group after the Malays I will confine the issue to Malaysian Chinese only.

Unlike Indonesia,Thailand and the Philippines where the Chinese have successfully integrated with the indigenous people including taking up and speaking the native tongue and adopting local names without losing their Chinese identity, language and culture. Malaysian Chinese have not been able to copy the form for many obvious reasons.

Not only the Chinese are to be blamed for the failure to integrate, the Malays and for that matter Islam played a big role in stifling integration of the races in this country.A Chinese can't adopt a Malay name because most Malays carry Muslim names.There is little, if any, vernacular Malay names that non-Muslims can use or allowed to use.

In Sabah and Sarawak, it is quite common to find natives of Christian and other faiths given Muslim names by their parents at birth.Using Muslim names not synonymous with the person's religion were common practices in Sabah and Sarawak and have existed from the colonial days when Islam had not taken its conservative form that we see today. Another and even bigger stumbling block to integration is that Chinese or any non-Muslim can't marry a Malay without first converting to Islam. Although Islam had, in a limited way, made some allowance for Muslim men to marry women of Catholicism without her converting to Islam at the point of marriage, in Malaysia this is not allowed.

Over-indulgence in protecting the image of Islam had also caused unnecessary rift between the Malays and other religions and communities.The ban by the government of the use of the word 'Allah' in a Catholic publication is a case in point.The over-sensitivity, lack of understanding and sheer arrogance of those in government spell disaster for integration.How can the government talk about integration of the races in this country when it can allow certain leaders in government to run amok and keep reminding the migrant races that they don't belong here.

In Indonesia, the biggest Islamic nation in the world, there is separation between religion and state.The government does not unnecessarily interfere in one's faith or imposes Islamic jurisdiction over the population.In fact Indonesia had more reason in doing so, eighty percent of its population are Muslims.

The Chinese in Malaysia is a big minority giving it enough muscles to flex and play important roles in the politics of the nation and given equitable representation in government.They have also successfully preserved the Chinese language and culture.

The insistence to preserve the language and culture in the education system had given rise to Chinese chauvinism.Many Chinese viewed the government education system as pathetically low in standard, which is not without basis with most government schools, if not all.Chinese-funded schools, somehow, seem to excel better than many government schools.Being economically better than majority of Malays the Chinese business community plays a big role in providing education for the community and in funding Chinese schools. For most Chinese, education for their children sits at the top of their priority list.

This fixation with the 'Chinese language and culture' have made some Chinese chauvinistic and don't see the need to learn the national language.For the older generation Chinese not being fluent in the Malay language is quite acceptable but for the younger generation there is absolutely no reason for not being able to speak the national language.

There is no true national identity in Malaysia.When overseas we identify ourselves as Malaysian only by the passport we hold and when we return home we returned back to being Malay,Chinese,Indian dan lain-lain(others).The identity card we have with particulars such as race and religion are more suited for a police state.They are reflections of the government's insecurity, divide and rule policy and to identify and separate the Malays from the non-Malays.

In everything that the government does more often than not they caused more racial polarisation than integration.You can't instill sense of belonging if you make people feel uneasy, that they don't own the place and keep telling them they are guests in this country.

In Sabah and Sarawak the situation is even more pathetic, many Chinese inter marry with Kadazans and produced offspring called Sino-Kadazan and those whose fathers are Chinese carry Chinese surname.The problem disappears when a Kadazam man marries a Chinese woman as the offspring would carry Kadazan surname which is more identifiable as being a bumiputra.

Most Sino-Kadazan with Chinese surnames were disallowed from buying ASB(Amanah SahamBumiputra) and own NT (Native Title)Land unless he has a certificate stating he is a bumiputra.There have been cases where children of such marriages were unable to inherit their parents' NT lands because of the stupidity of civil servants rather than the law.

Under the Sabah State Constitution it was clearly prescribed that a person with one of the parents indigenous to the state is constituted as bumiputra.

The irony is.........

To be continued.