The Long And Winding Road

Hantu Laut

Malaysia, on the other hand has been sending out euphonious messages to its citizens not to worry about the impending economics gloom.The leaders say they have everything under control without spelling out the measures taken or to be taken in the event of a precipitous decline in the economy.The first-half of 2009 would be crucial for Malaysia if the export market continue to shrink and prices of its primary products and manufactured goods declined drastically.

I anticipate export receipts to decline at least by 20 to 30 % in the 1st-quarter of 2009 as demands for electronic products,palm oil,wood-based products and crude oil declined due to poor demand in the importing countries.Falling prices would further contribute to lowering of the GDP.

That's what I wrote in December 2008 in this article.

January exports drop 17pc to RM38b

KUALA LUMPUR, March 6 — The country recorded RM8.83 billion in trade surplus in January, making it the 135th consecutive month of trade surplus since November 1997, but total volume declined by 29.7 per cent from a year ago.

Total trade value for the month was RM67.77 billion.

Exports in January 2009 were valued at RM38.3 billion, a drop of 27.8 per cent from January 2008, the Statistics Department said in a statement today. Full story here.

Total imports fell by 32 per cent to RM29.47 billion from a year ago.

"Month-on-month, exports fell by 16.9 per cent from December 2008, while imports were lower by 14.7 per cent. The performance in January was in tandem with countries that have announced their January trade figures," it said. Full story here.

Even if the government implements the stimulus package there would be little chance of any recovery this year.Recovery is not only dependent on the stimulus package by the government. Malaysia being an exporting nation depends much of its economic well being on the global economy, particularly the Western economies.If the global economy continues to be in the doldrums than it would a long ride before we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The public and private sector foreign debts would become more expensive to service if the ringgit continue to depreciate against other major currencies. The ringgit may breach the RM4.00 to the US$ during the 2nd half of this year if the economy doesn't pick up.

Holders of private foreign debts in foreign currencies should consider retiring their foreign debts or part of their foreign debts by borrowing ringgit from the domestic market and pay off their foreign debts. The myopic management of Tenaga have incurred foreign exchange loss of RM1.2 billion on their US$ and Yen debts.Obviously, they are confident the ringgit would appreciate against these currencies or at least stay at comfortable level.

They were wrong.

A Lying Minister: Sabahans Left In The Lurch

Hantu Laut

Nothing could be more shameless than what's happening to the health care in Sabah.The health care system is as sick as a dog and not because of lack of money but because some scumbags are trying to make money out of this malady at the expense of the health of the people of Sabah.

The apathy of the Federal government and the Ministry of Health toward this critical issue is most distasteful and a shame to the Federal leaders who still have not learned their lessons from the 8 March 2008 Elections.Making all kind of promises during elections time and conveniently forget to carry out those promises when they have won.Irionically, they have forgotten, if not for Sabah and Sarawak it would have been Anwar Ibrahim sitting in Puterajaya today, not Badawi or Najib. There are just too much and endless politiking to prioritise their own interests and leave the people at the mercy of the elements.Do they deserve our support in future elections? I leave it to Sabahans to decide when the time comes.A good deed deserves another and they have done nothing of that sort.As the Malays would say "Tak kenang budi" or "hutang emas boleh dibayar, hutang budi dibawah mati".

When the tower block of the QEH (Queen Elizabeth Hospital) was declared structurally unsafe a year ago the state capital lost hundreds of hospital beds, displaced the operating theatre, ICU, surgical department and other crucial sections of the hospital, throwing the health and medical care into utter chaos for those living in and around Kota Kinabalu.Patients have to be sent as far as Sandakan and Tawau because of inadequate beds causing logistic and nonsensical problems for patients,relatives,families and doctors.The bills for all this stupidity is staggering.

Adding insult to injury was the Deputy Minister of Health Abdul Latif Ahmad who came to Sabah and insulted the people of Sabah by saying no budget was made for the new hospital at Kinarut. This is the kind of minister this country has, think Sabahans are stupid and do not know what's going on behind the scene.

How could this liar say they have no budget to build a new hospital when it's common knowledge here that the Ministry of Health is negotiating to buy the SMC (Sabah Medical Centre), a private hospital for a whopping RM460 million. This hospital was built and completed about three years ago for less than RM200 million and with finishes that leaves much to be desired. One have to visit the hospital to see how bad the quality of the building is.

I have first hand knowledge of this hospital because my mother was admitted to this hospital for almost one month the first time and about 2 weeks the second time. It costs me a bomb. The private rooms are the standard of 2 star hotel but charging 5 star price.

This is not the first time this private company is in the business of selling hospitals to the Federal government.The old SMC at Likas was also sold to the Federal government at a pumped up price a few years ago.

Although it's a federal matters the chief minister should have a say in any project involving the state and people of Sabah. The present Chief Minister Musa Aman should not sit on his laurel but must insist on a new hospital to be built on the land provided by the state government.

In fact, as a temporary measure, the government can employ a quick-built system if there are sufficient land space provided by the state.This pre-fabricated structure and panels can be made locally or brought in from China where it is probably cheaper to make.The other alternative is to buy a building and convert it into a hospital. These are the faster and cheaper alternatives.

The most puzzling question is why the Federal government do not utilise about 30 acres of land which came with the old SMC which logically should be the first choice for new extension to accommodate the various departments that have been displaced by the closure of the QEH tower block.In fact, with proper design even the land around the present QEH is sufficient to build new hospital.All the low-rise buildings such as the TB ward, the nurses quarters,the stupid car-park, etc should be removed and to put up multi-storey buildings.

A hospital need not be a one-stop centre where every department is housed under one roof. It would be an ideal situation but not necessary.They can be in different cluster and in different locations.

Paying RM460 million can certainly build a bigger and more magnificent hospital than buying the grossly overpriced SMC and isn't it strange they have the money to buy SMC but have no money to build a new hospital.

Maybe, the MACC should do some investigative work on this case.

The Tweedle-dum And Tweedle-dee

Hantu Laut

PKR's Fauzi Muda says he is prepared to reveal all evidence regarding his allegation of being offered RM50 million by Najib for him to organise defections of Perak's Pakatan assemblymen.Maybe, he should and let the public decide whether he is what he says he is.....of unquestionable integrity.

Only they seem to have the affinity to attract such offers , none of DAP or PAS elected members have been approached, or at least they have not said so.

Would you believe that PKR elected representatives are of the highest calibre and impeccable integrity that even RM50 million wouldn't buy their souls, if not their sins. It certainly have bought the sins of the two scumbags that left the party to be independents and supported the BN. Many of them have lamented the turpitude of the BN government and the icing on the cake of their unconquerable and unquestionable integrity.











Sometimes, facial expression and body language are instant give-aways. Some lie to try fortify their lack of self-esteem and some to seek self-glorification while some are just pathological liars.

I will not rule out the fact that there may be some offers made by the BN to entice those scumbags to shift royalty to their side but I also believe there are just too many embellishments to the story to make the scumbags look good and Najib looks bad. What different would Najib be to Anwar, who glorified and gave standing ovation to the jumping of the UMNO's scumbag to PKR, that, unfortunately, was a flash in the pan. Anwar's bid to takeover the government through unscrupulous means of crossovers of BN lawmakers were no lesser evil.The only difference is, he didn't succeed. If he had, and should Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi called for dissolution of Parliament and the king agreed, I bet my bottom dollar Anwar, Pakatan and its supporters would be screaming for blood and would accuse the Agong and show the same disrespect as they did to the Sultan of Perak.

There are more scumbags,villains and liars in PKR than in the other Pakatan's coalition partners.

The Tweedel-dum and Tweedle-dee, two of a kind, who look the same and say the same things.

Economic Malaise: Will The Government 'Broke The Buck' ?

Hantu Laut

Reported in The Strait Times

MARCH 4 – The Malaysian ringgit could breach the psychological 3.80 to the greenback mark in the not too distant future, nudged by a deepening global recession and resultant flight to quality, plus a widening budget deficit.

Previously, few would have entertained the notion of the local unit tumbling back to 3.80 – the level at which it was fixed in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis before the peg was dismantled in 2005 – but it appears a distinct possibility now.

On the back of weakening exports and a growing budget shortfall, the ringgit climbed to within a 3.62/63 band a month ago.

Yesterday, it opened at 3.727/731 from Monday's close of 3.726/730. Full story here...

Read the one below:

Reduced corporate profits or losses would mean less income taxes going into government coffers, which among other things, would affect the government budget.New sources of funding would have to be found to finance the budget.Unless there is sudden upswing to the current gloomy global conditions the general economy will face serious contraction in the next few months which would affect the value of the ringgit.The ringgit may be traded at 3.80 to 4.00 range by 1st Quarter 2009 if no viable solution is found to stimulate growth. Read the full story here...

Read this one:

KUALA LUMPUR: The property market in Kuala Lumpur could depreciate as much as 10% to 15% going forward, while the prices of high-end condominiums in the Kuala Lumpur City Centre (KLCC) area may fall up to 30% in the next two to three months, said property consultant Rahim & Co. Full story here...

Now read this one:

Presently, there is notable forced sale and marginal decline in the prices of medium and lower scale properties in cities like Kuala Lumpur and Johor Baru.If the economic crisis deepen the next few months and continues into the middle of 2009 the prices of properties for all sectors would take a tumble.Upscale properties would fall between 20 t0 40% mainly in big urban areas.Full story here...

The Straits Times was right only few had the notion how bad things can get when the domino hits us. I was one of the crazy prophets of doom that have had all my forecasts and predictions hitting bulls eye.

Is the government still living in a state of denial?

They are going to announce the second stimulus package on 10 March 2009.Will have to wait and see what kind of package they have in store to rescue the economy.

Anything less than RM30 billion (inclusive the RM7 billion) may not do a good job. The problem is the government do not have the money and would not get enough money from its normal sources of revenue to finance its main budget, let alone finance the stimulus package.Its budget deficit is expected to grow to unhealthy level if the stimulus package could not revive the economy by the 2nd half of 2009. The longer the delay to implement the stimulus package the longer the sickness would stay.The country may be looking at unpleasant negative growth.

Unpleasant, as it may be, the government needs to borrow to finance the budget and the stimulus package. It has a number of options that it can take for its deficit financing.

1.Issuance of Treasury Bonds for domestic and international markets.....unlikely. Response from the international financial community may not be strong enough, which can downgrade the credit rating of the nation.

2.Foreign borrowing in foreign currency..... unlikely.Can become very expensive in the long run.

3.Liquidation of government assets..... not efficient in a downturn and possible diminution in value of assets.

4.Borrow from pension funds and government-controlled trust funds......very likely.The most efficient, cheapest, easiest and quickest way to raise the funds. Most likely candidates would be EPF and savings in ASN and ASB.

When the government announces the stimulus package it would be imperative and responsible on the part of the Prime Minister to tell Malaysians where the money is coming from.

Should the government decides to use money from EPF, the Board of EPF should not agree to a term loan between EPF and the government but demand for the issuance of medium term bonds with reasonable rate of interest.A term loan can be renegotiated and the terms and conditions can be varied from time to time by the lender (EPF) which is controlled by the government but government bonds must be paid in full upon maturity.

EPF funds were already badly managed giving poor return for many years and investments in low-yield government bonds or low interest loans are going to worsen the earnings of the fund.