Hantu Laut
The Finance Minister and Prime Minister-in-waiting Najib Tun Razak is to announce the 2nd stimulus package later to day.In my earlier posting under "Economic Malaise:Will The Government 'Broke The Buck' " I mentioned that anything less than RM30 billion would be insufficient to inject new lease of life into the economy. The stimulus has come a little late but not too late to rescue the economy provided the government dispense the package only in critical sectors of the economy, not projects manufactured to put money in selected pockets.
If the government have not sat on its laurel and took positive actions to put in place a contingency plan on the first sign of a downturn and at about the same time when I wrote my article "Badawi's State Of Euphoria" which appeared in Asia Sentinel in January 2008, it wouldn't be so topsy-turvy today.
The stimulus need not be in cash injection alone but can come in the form of cash, incentives,tax rebate and tax reduction.
Malaysia is the third most export-dependent country in this region after Singapore and Hong Kong. Special attention should be given to this sector to maintain high level of export receipts by providing various incentives and assistance.Special incentives should be given to Malaysian products using high level of local materials and added incentive if this value added products are exported overseas.
Manufactured products and services are the biggest contributors to the GDP, naturally these should be the areas the government should provide the highest priority
Some of the things, among many others, the government need to do immediately for the rest of 2009.
1. Provide incentives in the form corporate tax reduction for all manufacturing companies and bigger tax reduction for companies that export at least 50% of their products overseas.
2.Give bigger tax reduction for companies in selected sectors such as plantations and construction that employ 70% or more Malaysian labour.
3.Remove all export cess or duties on primary products exported overseas.
4.Suspend EPF contributions from all employers and give option to employees to contribute or not.
5.Require banks to suspend loan repayment for principal amount only for companies affected by the downturn and for Bank Negara to impose at least 6 months, as rule of thumb, before such account goes under NPL (non-performing loan).
6.Provide export credit scheme for selected countries and cheaper pre-shipment financing for exporters.
7.Allow those who lost their jobs to draw half of their last drawn salary from their EPF savings for a maximum of 6 months.
8.Remove personal income tax for the year 2009 for those who earned less than RM36,000 per annum.
9.Stop recruitment of all foreign workers and repatriate those that have been retrenched.Require companies to give names and particulars of all foreign workers retrenched to the Immigration Department to ensure they have left the country.
10.Consider re-pegging of the ringgit to RM3.80 to US$1.00 to arrest the volatility and maintain stability of the currency.
Under the current economic conditions the ringgit will not be stable and the government do not have the money to continuously prop it up. With the global recession there wouldn't be many FDI (foreign direct investment) coming to Malaysia or repatriation of capital and profits, therefore, a pegged currency will do little harm to the nation's reputation.
The government must face the grim outlook of the possibility that the nation will face a serious negative growth this year, which we have not seen for many decades and it must not be foolhardy to think otherwise.
What kind of stimulus package Najib will deliver later today will decide whether he has what it takes to lead this country until the next general elections or a revolt within his own party to throw him out before his time is up, just like what they did to Abdullah Badawi.
Will Najib have the right formula to rescue the nation from economic disaster ?
Let's wait and see what's in the package.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Saturday, March 7, 2009
The Long And Winding Road
Hantu Laut
Malaysia, on the other hand has been sending out euphonious messages to its citizens not to worry about the impending economics gloom.The leaders say they have everything under control without spelling out the measures taken or to be taken in the event of a precipitous decline in the economy.The first-half of 2009 would be crucial for Malaysia if the export market continue to shrink and prices of its primary products and manufactured goods declined drastically.
I anticipate export receipts to decline at least by 20 to 30 % in the 1st-quarter of 2009 as demands for electronic products,palm oil,wood-based products and crude oil declined due to poor demand in the importing countries.Falling prices would further contribute to lowering of the GDP.
That's what I wrote in December 2008 in this article.
The public and private sector foreign debts would become more expensive to service if the ringgit continue to depreciate against other major currencies. The ringgit may breach the RM4.00 to the US$ during the 2nd half of this year if the economy doesn't pick up.
Holders of private foreign debts in foreign currencies should consider retiring their foreign debts or part of their foreign debts by borrowing ringgit from the domestic market and pay off their foreign debts. The myopic management of Tenaga have incurred foreign exchange loss of RM1.2 billion on their US$ and Yen debts.Obviously, they are confident the ringgit would appreciate against these currencies or at least stay at comfortable level.
They were wrong.
Malaysia, on the other hand has been sending out euphonious messages to its citizens not to worry about the impending economics gloom.The leaders say they have everything under control without spelling out the measures taken or to be taken in the event of a precipitous decline in the economy.The first-half of 2009 would be crucial for Malaysia if the export market continue to shrink and prices of its primary products and manufactured goods declined drastically.
I anticipate export receipts to decline at least by 20 to 30 % in the 1st-quarter of 2009 as demands for electronic products,palm oil,wood-based products and crude oil declined due to poor demand in the importing countries.Falling prices would further contribute to lowering of the GDP.
That's what I wrote in December 2008 in this article.
January exports drop 17pc to RM38b
KUALA LUMPUR, March 6 — The country recorded RM8.83 billion in trade surplus in January, making it the 135th consecutive month of trade surplus since November 1997, but total volume declined by 29.7 per cent from a year ago.
Total trade value for the month was RM67.77 billion.
Exports in January 2009 were valued at RM38.3 billion, a drop of 27.8 per cent from January 2008, the Statistics Department said in a statement today. Full story here.
Total imports fell by 32 per cent to RM29.47 billion from a year ago.
"Month-on-month, exports fell by 16.9 per cent from December 2008, while imports were lower by 14.7 per cent. The performance in January was in tandem with countries that have announced their January trade figures," it said. Full story here.
The public and private sector foreign debts would become more expensive to service if the ringgit continue to depreciate against other major currencies. The ringgit may breach the RM4.00 to the US$ during the 2nd half of this year if the economy doesn't pick up.
Holders of private foreign debts in foreign currencies should consider retiring their foreign debts or part of their foreign debts by borrowing ringgit from the domestic market and pay off their foreign debts. The myopic management of Tenaga have incurred foreign exchange loss of RM1.2 billion on their US$ and Yen debts.Obviously, they are confident the ringgit would appreciate against these currencies or at least stay at comfortable level.
They were wrong.
Friday, March 6, 2009
A Lying Minister: Sabahans Left In The Lurch
Hantu Laut
Nothing could be more shameless than what's happening to the health care in Sabah.The health care system is as sick as a dog and not because of lack of money but because some scumbags are trying to make money out of this malady at the expense of the health of the people of Sabah.
The apathy of the Federal government and the Ministry of Health toward this critical issue is most distasteful and a shame to the Federal leaders who still have not learned their lessons from the 8 March 2008 Elections.Making all kind of promises during elections time and conveniently forget to carry out those promises when they have won.Irionically, they have forgotten, if not for Sabah and Sarawak it would have been Anwar Ibrahim sitting in Puterajaya today, not Badawi or Najib. There are just too much and endless politiking to prioritise their own interests and leave the people at the mercy of the elements.Do they deserve our support in future elections? I leave it to Sabahans to decide when the time comes.A good deed deserves another and they have done nothing of that sort.As the Malays would say "Tak kenang budi" or "hutang emas boleh dibayar, hutang budi dibawah mati".
When the tower block of the QEH (Queen Elizabeth Hospital) was declared structurally unsafe a year ago the state capital lost hundreds of hospital beds, displaced the operating theatre, ICU, surgical department and other crucial sections of the hospital, throwing the health and medical care into utter chaos for those living in and around Kota Kinabalu.Patients have to be sent as far as Sandakan and Tawau because of inadequate beds causing logistic and nonsensical problems for patients,relatives,families and doctors.The bills for all this stupidity is staggering.
Adding insult to injury was the Deputy Minister of Health Abdul Latif Ahmad who came to Sabah and insulted the people of Sabah by saying no budget was made for the new hospital at Kinarut. This is the kind of minister this country has, think Sabahans are stupid and do not know what's going on behind the scene.
How could this liar say they have no budget to build a new hospital when it's common knowledge here that the Ministry of Health is negotiating to buy the SMC (Sabah Medical Centre), a private hospital for a whopping RM460 million. This hospital was built and completed about three years ago for less than RM200 million and with finishes that leaves much to be desired. One have to visit the hospital to see how bad the quality of the building is.
I have first hand knowledge of this hospital because my mother was admitted to this hospital for almost one month the first time and about 2 weeks the second time. It costs me a bomb. The private rooms are the standard of 2 star hotel but charging 5 star price.
This is not the first time this private company is in the business of selling hospitals to the Federal government.The old SMC at Likas was also sold to the Federal government at a pumped up price a few years ago.
Although it's a federal matters the chief minister should have a say in any project involving the state and people of Sabah. The present Chief Minister Musa Aman should not sit on his laurel but must insist on a new hospital to be built on the land provided by the state government.
In fact, as a temporary measure, the government can employ a quick-built system if there are sufficient land space provided by the state.This pre-fabricated structure and panels can be made locally or brought in from China where it is probably cheaper to make.The other alternative is to buy a building and convert it into a hospital. These are the faster and cheaper alternatives.
The most puzzling question is why the Federal government do not utilise about 30 acres of land which came with the old SMC which logically should be the first choice for new extension to accommodate the various departments that have been displaced by the closure of the QEH tower block.In fact, with proper design even the land around the present QEH is sufficient to build new hospital.All the low-rise buildings such as the TB ward, the nurses quarters,the stupid car-park, etc should be removed and to put up multi-storey buildings.
A hospital need not be a one-stop centre where every department is housed under one roof. It would be an ideal situation but not necessary.They can be in different cluster and in different locations.
Paying RM460 million can certainly build a bigger and more magnificent hospital than buying the grossly overpriced SMC and isn't it strange they have the money to buy SMC but have no money to build a new hospital.
Maybe, the MACC should do some investigative work on this case.
Nothing could be more shameless than what's happening to the health care in Sabah.The health care system is as sick as a dog and not because of lack of money but because some scumbags are trying to make money out of this malady at the expense of the health of the people of Sabah.
The apathy of the Federal government and the Ministry of Health toward this critical issue is most distasteful and a shame to the Federal leaders who still have not learned their lessons from the 8 March 2008 Elections.Making all kind of promises during elections time and conveniently forget to carry out those promises when they have won.Irionically, they have forgotten, if not for Sabah and Sarawak it would have been Anwar Ibrahim sitting in Puterajaya today, not Badawi or Najib. There are just too much and endless politiking to prioritise their own interests and leave the people at the mercy of the elements.Do they deserve our support in future elections? I leave it to Sabahans to decide when the time comes.A good deed deserves another and they have done nothing of that sort.As the Malays would say "Tak kenang budi" or "hutang emas boleh dibayar, hutang budi dibawah mati".
When the tower block of the QEH (Queen Elizabeth Hospital) was declared structurally unsafe a year ago the state capital lost hundreds of hospital beds, displaced the operating theatre, ICU, surgical department and other crucial sections of the hospital, throwing the health and medical care into utter chaos for those living in and around Kota Kinabalu.Patients have to be sent as far as Sandakan and Tawau because of inadequate beds causing logistic and nonsensical problems for patients,relatives,families and doctors.The bills for all this stupidity is staggering.
Adding insult to injury was the Deputy Minister of Health Abdul Latif Ahmad who came to Sabah and insulted the people of Sabah by saying no budget was made for the new hospital at Kinarut. This is the kind of minister this country has, think Sabahans are stupid and do not know what's going on behind the scene.
How could this liar say they have no budget to build a new hospital when it's common knowledge here that the Ministry of Health is negotiating to buy the SMC (Sabah Medical Centre), a private hospital for a whopping RM460 million. This hospital was built and completed about three years ago for less than RM200 million and with finishes that leaves much to be desired. One have to visit the hospital to see how bad the quality of the building is.
I have first hand knowledge of this hospital because my mother was admitted to this hospital for almost one month the first time and about 2 weeks the second time. It costs me a bomb. The private rooms are the standard of 2 star hotel but charging 5 star price.
This is not the first time this private company is in the business of selling hospitals to the Federal government.The old SMC at Likas was also sold to the Federal government at a pumped up price a few years ago.
Although it's a federal matters the chief minister should have a say in any project involving the state and people of Sabah. The present Chief Minister Musa Aman should not sit on his laurel but must insist on a new hospital to be built on the land provided by the state government.
In fact, as a temporary measure, the government can employ a quick-built system if there are sufficient land space provided by the state.This pre-fabricated structure and panels can be made locally or brought in from China where it is probably cheaper to make.The other alternative is to buy a building and convert it into a hospital. These are the faster and cheaper alternatives.
The most puzzling question is why the Federal government do not utilise about 30 acres of land which came with the old SMC which logically should be the first choice for new extension to accommodate the various departments that have been displaced by the closure of the QEH tower block.In fact, with proper design even the land around the present QEH is sufficient to build new hospital.All the low-rise buildings such as the TB ward, the nurses quarters,the stupid car-park, etc should be removed and to put up multi-storey buildings.
A hospital need not be a one-stop centre where every department is housed under one roof. It would be an ideal situation but not necessary.They can be in different cluster and in different locations.
Paying RM460 million can certainly build a bigger and more magnificent hospital than buying the grossly overpriced SMC and isn't it strange they have the money to buy SMC but have no money to build a new hospital.
Maybe, the MACC should do some investigative work on this case.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
The Tweedle-dum And Tweedle-dee
Hantu Laut
PKR's Fauzi Muda says he is prepared to reveal all evidence regarding his allegation of being offered RM50 million by Najib for him to organise defections of Perak's Pakatan assemblymen.Maybe, he should and let the public decide whether he is what he says he is.....of unquestionable integrity.
Only they seem to have the affinity to attract such offers , none of DAP or PAS elected members have been approached, or at least they have not said so.
Would you believe that PKR elected representatives are of the highest calibre and impeccable integrity that even RM50 million wouldn't buy their souls, if not their sins. It certainly have bought the sins of the two scumbags that left the party to be independents and supported the BN. Many of them have lamented the turpitude of the BN government and the icing on the cake of their unconquerable and unquestionable integrity.
Sometimes, facial expression and body language are instant give-aways. Some lie to try fortify their lack of self-esteem and some to seek self-glorification while some are just pathological liars.
I will not rule out the fact that there may be some offers made by the BN to entice those scumbags to shift royalty to their side but I also believe there are just too many embellishments to the story to make the scumbags look good and Najib looks bad. What different would Najib be to Anwar, who glorified and gave standing ovation to the jumping of the UMNO's scumbag to PKR, that, unfortunately, was a flash in the pan. Anwar's bid to takeover the government through unscrupulous means of crossovers of BN lawmakers were no lesser evil.The only difference is, he didn't succeed. If he had, and should Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi called for dissolution of Parliament and the king agreed, I bet my bottom dollar Anwar, Pakatan and its supporters would be screaming for blood and would accuse the Agong and show the same disrespect as they did to the Sultan of Perak.
There are more scumbags,villains and liars in PKR than in the other Pakatan's coalition partners.
The Tweedel-dum and Tweedle-dee, two of a kind, who look the same and say the same things.
PKR's Fauzi Muda says he is prepared to reveal all evidence regarding his allegation of being offered RM50 million by Najib for him to organise defections of Perak's Pakatan assemblymen.Maybe, he should and let the public decide whether he is what he says he is.....of unquestionable integrity.
Only they seem to have the affinity to attract such offers , none of DAP or PAS elected members have been approached, or at least they have not said so.
Would you believe that PKR elected representatives are of the highest calibre and impeccable integrity that even RM50 million wouldn't buy their souls, if not their sins. It certainly have bought the sins of the two scumbags that left the party to be independents and supported the BN. Many of them have lamented the turpitude of the BN government and the icing on the cake of their unconquerable and unquestionable integrity.
Sometimes, facial expression and body language are instant give-aways. Some lie to try fortify their lack of self-esteem and some to seek self-glorification while some are just pathological liars.
I will not rule out the fact that there may be some offers made by the BN to entice those scumbags to shift royalty to their side but I also believe there are just too many embellishments to the story to make the scumbags look good and Najib looks bad. What different would Najib be to Anwar, who glorified and gave standing ovation to the jumping of the UMNO's scumbag to PKR, that, unfortunately, was a flash in the pan. Anwar's bid to takeover the government through unscrupulous means of crossovers of BN lawmakers were no lesser evil.The only difference is, he didn't succeed. If he had, and should Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi called for dissolution of Parliament and the king agreed, I bet my bottom dollar Anwar, Pakatan and its supporters would be screaming for blood and would accuse the Agong and show the same disrespect as they did to the Sultan of Perak.
There are more scumbags,villains and liars in PKR than in the other Pakatan's coalition partners.
The Tweedel-dum and Tweedle-dee, two of a kind, who look the same and say the same things.
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