Tuesday, April 27, 2010

The Truth Is Out Why PKR Failed Hulu Selangor

Hantu Laut

I am not against change if there are better alternatives to chose from.I cannot foresee Pakatan Rakyat as the alternative to a better government.

I have never wavered in my stand when it comes to the strange alliance of PKR, DAP and PAS.They have so far managed to hide their incompatibility. How long more can they go hiding behind this wall of self-deception.It is only a matter of time before the fireworks implode sky high.

When things go wrong blame it on others. Intimidation,character assassination,Election Commission stooge of ruling party and so forth.Typical of Anwar's excuses when he fails.

His letter to supporters here.


The truth is out, why PKR lost the Hulu Selangor by-election.

So why did PKR lose in Hulu Selangor? — Syed Jaymal Zahiid

APRIL 26 — It was rather anticipated that Barisan Nasional would snatch the Hulu Selangor seat yesterday from right under Pakatan Rakyat’s (PR) nose and without giving too much credit to the former, two factors contributed to this somewhat predestined outcome.

First, the notoriously poor and inefficient machinery. The second is the candidate factor itself.

PKR’s Datuk Zaid Ibrahim lost to MIC information chief P. Kamalananthan by a 1,725-vote majority. The former law minister garnered 23,272 votes while his opponent, a public relations practitioner whose qualifications were subject to tactical scrutiny by Zaid and Co, bagged 24,997 votes.

Yes, there were strong intrinsic statistical factors that led to Zaid’s loss as reflected by past voting patterns. After all, the sizeable constituency of 64,500 eligible voters has been opposition-proof up until the unpopular Datuk G. Palanivel, a four-term incumbent, was dethroned in Election 2008.

But let us not allow this factor give PKR the convenience of an excuse.

In politics, no fight is impossible to win. Did the opposition not prove this axiom right when boasting of its unprecedented success in Election 2008?

In his short and simple tweet, Klang DAP MP Charles Santiago noted that Pakatan (what he intended to say is PKR, I presume) had lost out to its rivals in the machinery battle. Now exclude the “money” and the “intimidation” part, without devaluing its merits, the veracity of the Santiago’s concise assessment on Pakatan’s defeat hit the bull’s eye.

Anyone on the ground throughout PR’s eight-day campaigning trail would, without a doubt, concur.

PKR’s Hulu Selangor election machinery was phenomenally hopeless. It was frayed, uninspiring, shoddy. Too many “egos” were involved. To be straightforward without revealing too much, there were “three” egos involved.

Ground reports and observation showed PKR’s machinery was slow to move. Complaints were ever loud of how campaign materials arrived only after the third day of campaigning.

They lacked co-ordination. The string-pullers on the ground were too busy busting and nurturing their local image as low-level leaders and instead of co-operating, they engaged in a popularity contest among themselves. The PKR machinery was divided into many camps. This paralysed them.

And it is no exaggeration to say that PKR campaigners were arrogant. They refused to work hand in hand with their PAS and DAP counterparts. If there was any collaboration at all, it was half-baked. Read more..

Monday, April 26, 2010

Money Speaks Louder Than Words?

Hantu Laut

Is it glorious victory for Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak? Has his perseverance paid off? A win is a win, but UMNO must take stock of the slim majority.

Pakatan is not yet a pushover. For UMNO, it would still be a long bumpy ride on the road to recovery.Depending how they conduct themselves from now on, recovery can be like the receding horizon, they'll never get there.

The result of the Hulu Selangor by-election shows that PR is still a force to be reckoned with and still have its tenacious claw on the people. The BN bigger war chest smoothed the rough edges.Pork-barrel politics with poor pay back.With so much goodies offered the return was minimal.

The Chinese voters are still solidly anchored to DAP giving Pakatan the bulk of the vote pool.MCA and Gerakan looked like sick dogs, unable to revive the Chinese support.Samy and other MIC leaders should eat the humble-pie.With hindsight, the result would have been different if Najib had caved in to Samy's demand. The return of the Indians has nothing to do with Samy or MIC.Credit should be given to Najib's direct foray into the Indian community and his insistence of a new face as the candidate.

He may have to do the same with the Chinese community rather than flogging the dead horses in his stable.

He may have to woo the various Chinese clan associations to get his message across to the Chinese community.The massive dose of anti BN venom injected by DAP into the community need a special antidote to cure.MCA and Gerakan have absolute zero credibility making them paraplegics.

There have been cases where MCA campaigners were told not to come to certain Chinese areas and were told to screw themselves if they dare come.

Loss of the seat to BN would further erode the confidence of members of PKR.More exodus of its member should be expected including elected representatives who are not happy with the treatment they get from the top leadership.PKR, is the weakest link in the coalition and the most likely to implode. UMNO, should up the ante toward the disintegration of PKR.

Prime Minister Najib said there was no vote-buying but pork-barrel politics obviously had pulled the fence sitters and alms seekers to sway to the carrot on a stick.Najib needs to find
a better formula to bring the people back to the fold.Pork-barreling is not the right tool.

UMNO leaders should not rejoice from this victory.It's too close for comfort.It is more a reprieve rather than a win based on shifting of supports.

The BN is not out of the woods yet, but it's a start.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Hulu Selangor:Is Providence Always On The Side Of Big Battalions?

Hantu Laut

It is typical of many constituencies in Malaysia, representative of the racial composition of the population of the nation.The winner of this hotly contested, do or die by-election, would very likely be the winner of the next general elections.

Hulu Selangor is the final test ground that decides the political future of Barisan Nasional (BN) as well as Pakatan Rakyat (PR).

If majority of Malay votes swung to PR, the BN is doomed.No amount of pork-barreling can save the party from now on.The same goes with PR, particularly PKR, it would be the beginning of its slow and painful demise.

In politics, anything can happen, a major last minute change of heart can put all political punditry in the waste paper basket.A straw poll is not conclusive of the final result.Malaysian Insider did one here, not as honest-to-goodness poll but more an attempt to turn the tide in favour of PR.

Below is an opinion of a regular commentator to this blog.How accurate is his prediction of the outcome, one may ask is 'Providence always on the side of the big battalions'?

Man plans,God decides.


Blogger eddy said..

Pity the Chinese votes are not going to the BN, my take is at best it would only be 30% in this by-election. The MCA and Gerakan are not very enthusiastic partners in the BN coalition any more..at best their performance lacks luster no ooommpphhh no spirit. Dr Chua looks dispirited in most photos taken of him in Hulu Selangor, the new MCA President should project confidence working with their other BN partners.

Whatever happens after the HS by-election it looks like if Dr Chua and Dr Koh do not get their respective parties up to speed in respect to Chinese support of the BN, PM Najib will have to do what he has done to the MIC and actually reaching out to the Chinese directly via the NGOs and Clan Federation etc. MCA and Gerakan just have to stop trying to pin blame on UMNO for their electoral misfortune or would find themselves having to fight head on with the DAP in mixed electoral constituency only, in the next GE. In the last general election, the MCA and Gerakan and MIC were saved from annihilation because many who actually won, won in Malay majority areas courtesy of UMNO/BN spirit of cooperation and give and take.

Ultimately we must acknowledge that BN is not without its flaws but if we take out the cases of abuse,corruption,wastage etc...a BN Government actually stands for an inclusive Government participated by all races and ethnic background very necessary in a Multiracial Malaysia and a track record of successful solid short term and long term Development for all Malaysian.

Compare to Pakatan which pounds their chest about being multiracial but when push comes to shove puts a Malay candidate in a Malay majority(Hulu selangor) constituency, typical chakap tak serupa bikin of their leader, Anwar bin Ibrahim. Besides Anwar and Kit Siang's rhetoric, Pakatan is but a coconut shell seemingly hard to crack but all soft and watery in the inside..a lot of internal conflicts brought about by the different party agendas and most of all Anwar's maddening obsession to become the PM of Malaysia.

Having said that I think the HS parliamentary by-election has been a good campaign for BN overall. It was planned and it was quite well coordinated, I still predict a majority win by BN of about 3000 could be more if the Chinese support shift to 50%.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Who Will Win Hulu Selangor?

Hantu Laut

Majority Malays and some Indians on one side - possibly BN.

Majority Chinese and some Indians on the other side - possibly PR.

They say 'a miss is as good as a mile' and 'a win is a win'.Either way, it doesn't matter what's the margin of defeat or victory, most important is to win.

Ask former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad who won by the skin of his teeth against Razaleigh for the UMNO presidency and to everyone's surprise became the longest serving prime minister of this nation.


Ralph Waldo Emerson, the American philosopher and poet said “Our strength grows out of our weaknesses” It is only learning what our weaknesses are than we can find the right solution to overcome them.Najib, has probably found the solution.

BN should have the edge.