Coming Soon: Pensiangan, Who ?

Hatu Laut

Although, I have given UMNO/BN the edge due to the many offerings of sweeteners, the multitudes of Kuala Terengganu have rejected them.The people of Kuala Terengganu had spoken.It's a bad day for Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak as this is the second time he failed to get victory for the BN. The loss of Permatang Pauh was expected, this one had a good fighting chance, buggered by wrong candidature. 

Najib should not solely be blamed for the loss. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi should shoulder greater part of the blame for not putting his ears to the ground and listen to the rumblings of disagreement on the choice of candidate.Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad should be having the last laugh when Abdullah called him irrelevant.UMNO could have pulled through if a more amiable candidate was chosen. I would put the loss more due to rejection of the candidate rather than total rejection of the BN.Although, the majority of votes has increased, it was not substantial enough to write off the BN as becoming irrelevent.

I have in the past wrote about the failure of UMNO to re-invent itself after the embarrassingly poor showing at the March 2008 General Elections.

What happened in the last general elections was not the failure of BN, it was the abomination of UMNO and Abdullah's leadership resulting in the entire fleet being punished, especially the Chinese and Indians component parties. Sabah and Sarawak were untouched by the fury and saved the day  for Abdullah, but astonishingly still remained unappreciated.The arrogance, self-denial and resistance to change in the top echelons of the party is self-perpetuating and becoming a death wish.

Najib has four years, if he doesn't lose the government by cross-over, to set things right in UMNO.When he becomes PM the first thing he should do is to sack half of the present cabinet ministers and replace with new and untainted faces.He must also be prepared to take unpopular actions and spare no effort to bring corruptions under control and distribute government projects not only to party members but equitable distribution to other deserving and capable contractors. 

What happened in KT will have a bearing on other future by-election.The next one expected is Pensiangan in Sabah. Joseph Kurup of PBRS/BN lost his seat in an election petition brought against him.He won the seat uncontested through dubious means.

It is common knowledge among Sabahans that Joseph Kurup is very unpopular in the constituency and is going to lose badly if he is nominated to stand again.Najib may have to take serious note of this and ensure that he chooses the right candidate this time or else another fatality

Kuala Terengganu:UMNO/BN Has The Edge ?

Hantu Laut

The large turnout of Chinese at PAS/Pakatan's ceramahs might have driven away substantial number of Malay voters to UMNO.

The Malay voters in KT (Kuala Terengganu) are worried that a win for PAS would strenghten the position of the Chinese and Indians in the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.If the Chinese give their votes to PAS, they are actually not voting PAS, they are voting to strengthen the DAP and PKR, where most of elected representatives are Chinese and Indians.There is also the issue of hudud law which PAS wanted to implement for the whole nation should Pakatan takes over the Federal government.Karpal Singh of DAP had sent a clear message to PAS that the DAP would leave the Pakatan coalition if PAS insisted on introducing hudud law.

Communal politics is still very much alive in the country.Anwar Ibrahim who accused the BN government of fanning racial sentiments have the same kind of coalition, based on racial grouping.Bridging the racial gap in Pakatan would be even harder than the BN, not only on ethnic ground but on the question of religion.

PAS, a political party based on Islamic values and principles have refused to discard the image just to fit into DAP's hard-nosed secularism.The Chinese-based DAP refused to accept Malaysia being called an Islamic nation saying it is against the Constitution and insisted it is a secular nation and has no place for hudud law.

This marriage of convenience is standing on very shaky ground and can fall apart any time.PAS and DAP certainly make strange bedfellows, DAP is only interested in political power while PAS wanted both, political power and the glory of Islam.

It would be a long and winding road for Pakatan Rakyat if it ever were to reach Putrajaya.

Below is an interesting conspiracy to cheat put forth by Raja Petra.

"First of all, Umno is paying up to RM1,000 per vote. And this is how the system works.

A voter goes into the polling station to collect his/her ballot paper. He/she then puts it in his/her pocket. He/she drops a dummy ballot paper into the ballot box. He/she comes out and ‘sells’ the ballot paper to an Umno goon waiting outside. He/she goes home RM1,000 the richer.

The blank ballot paper is marked Barisan Nasional. It is then given to the next voter. He/she collects his/her ballot paper and puts it in his/her pocket. He/she drops the already marked ballot paper into the ballot box. He/she comes out and hands over the blank ballot paper to the Umno goon waiting outside in exchange for RM1,000.

The process is repeated thousands of times all over Kuala Terengganu at the 38 polling stations.

Another method would be: the voter goes into the polling station with his/her hand phone. He/she marks the ballot paper in the Barisan Nasional box and photographs it with his/her hand phone. He/she then drops the ballot paper into the ballot box. He/she comes out and shows the photo in the hand phone to an Umno goon and receives RM1,000.

All this is of course further to the ‘phantom voters’ who will be voting tomorrow. One man closely related to the Agong showed me the electoral roll where four unknown Chinese voters were registered at his house address. He does not know who these four Chinese are and how they got registered at his house address. How many thousands more are ‘registered voters’ in this manner is yet to be known because not all house owners check the electoral role to look for strangers registered at their address. But expect the figure to run into the thousands. And also expect all these strangers to come out to vote tomorrow".

Read the full story here.

Like many conspiracy theories, some are just that, a theory or a figment of someone's imagination.

Political analyst Ong Kiam Ming wrote in Malaysiakini that the opposition PAS might win with a majority of 3,300 votes.This might be true two weeks ago.The situation has changed since then and the BN have managed to close the gap and is now running neck to neck with PAS.

If the Chinese throw their full weight behind PAS candidate than there is a likelihood that the Malay voters might switch over to voting the UMNO candidate.If they don't, it will still be a close fight.

Look likes UMNO/BN has the edge.

No Recession !, No Recession !, No Recession !

Hantu Laut

No recession! No recession! No recession!.Is what we hear from our leaders every time and all the times.Our finances are good, our banking system is very liquid, our foreign exchange reserves are healthy, our currency is stable and our stock market is a 'OK'.We certainly have no problems.

Are those the correct barometers used to predict whether a storm is coming or not.Should we only look at the present positives and negate the present and future negatives and external forces.What about falling exports, falling commodity prices,rising unemployment and declining consumer's spending.Wouldn't a prolonged period of decline and lower economic outputs spelled "RECESSION".

What's the use of all those money in the banks if they can't regenerate? What's the use of a looking good stocks exchange index when the volume traded is miserably low? What's the use of a healthy foreign exchange reserve when it is eroding in value due to weakening of the currency? Are there still people out there in government that still have their heads screwed on to their bodies.

It is certainly good to show positive thinking but it can be dangerous if one is unable to separate the fact and the fiction.While other countries like Singapore, Hong Kong,Taiwan and South Korea have warned their citizens of hard times to come, our smart leaders keep telling us not to worry, we will never be in a recession, because they are so good in managing the economy.

Our politicians are out of touch with reality, incapable of telling the truth and are convinced by their own lies.Of course, if you keep giving yourself and your cronies big fat contracts surely there is no recession for you.It is the man in the street that will feel the pinch, the most.

The comments made by various ministers and those in government on the state of the economy are at odds with the increasingly gloomy picture.The falling export trades and decline in GDP in the fourth-quarter of 2008 was an indication that all is not well with the economy. Other than saying Malaysia will not be in a recession they have not provided concrete proof and detailed explanation why they have concluded so and how we are insulated and spared from the economic crisis.Is Malaysia really that insular?

This government gives the impression of being in office but not in control of the economy.It has probably fallen for the theory of some smart economists that the Asian economies have 'decoupled' from the United States and would not be affected by any downturn in the US.This kind of generalisation is not only untrue but can have dangerous consequence to those who believe in it.Our leaders appeared to be victims of this theory. 

Rating Agency Malaysia (RAM) Chief Economist Dr Yeah Kim Ling says that domestic demand could help offset the decrease in exports.This is the kind of economists that never do their home work and would certainly make the government very happy with their paintings of rosy picture.It also tells a lot about our very own credit rating agencies and so-called experts, can only open their mouth after other foreign credit rating agencies revised their figures.

What would Malaysian consumers do with billion dollars worth of electronics items like semi-conductors, computer chips and other high-technology products, they certainly can't eat them.

With recession in the US, the first industry to be hit would be the electronic industry which export substantially to the US markets. Most are owned by American-based companies that set up manufacturing facilities here.They would certainly cut down production and in some cases shut down completely if the economic crisis in the US is severe and dragged on longer than expected.

In 2006 Malaysia exported MR170.80 billion to the US out of a total export of RM589 billion.Majority were electronic items.In fact the export figure should be more if those going through Singapore for re-export to the US were taken into consideration.What domestic demand that Dr Yeah can think of that can fulfill the shortfalls in exports?

How could an economy like Malaysia with the US as its largest trading partner in export trades can be 'decoupled' from the effect of a recession in the US? With less economic activities in the US the demands for goods would decline resulting in drastic drop in our exports which would trigger a decline in GDP growth, higher unemployment and reduced consumer's spending. The prices of other commodities like palm oil,rubber and crude oil had spiralled downward with huge reduction in prices.The price of crude is currently around $36 per barrel and may even go below the next threshold level of $30 per barrel within the 1st and 2nd Qtr.Palm oil is currently selling around MR1500 per ton.

Just because we were not affected by the financial meltdown in the US doesn't mean we will be spared from the effect of the recession.These are separate issues altogether.

The financial meltdown in the US did not affect our banking system because there were very little transactions between Malaysian banks and  US banks/financial institutions. Malaysian banks did not buy substantial amount of financial papers from US banks and investment houses.

The economic recession is a different ball game.As long as we have substantial exports to the US, if they sneezed, we sure to catch the flu.

I have in my article 'Recession Scenarios For Malaysia' predicted real GDP growth rate ranging from 2% down to negative territory, while the government gave an over-ambitious rate of 3.5% and the EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit) gave 3.1%, the same as Citigroup Global Market.

Of late EIU has revised its figure down to 1.5% and Citigroup down to 0.5%.

The Malaysian government haven't come up with any revision yet and probably wouldn't because they have drowned in their own intelligence.

Judging Najib

Hantu Laut

Kuala Terengganu (KT), the last time I was there must be over twenty years ago when it was still a sleepy little town and the Primula Hotel just open its doors for the first time.

Terengganu and Kelantan share some similarity with Sabah. Facing the South China Sea, somehow,blessed these three states with some of the nicest beaches and coral reefs in the country.Similarly, they have also been thorns in the BN's flesh before, for being the only states that ever fell to the oppositions, long before the March 8 General Elections.

Kelantan has always been a PAS stronghold and the people have no love lost with UMNO.Kelantanese are rare breed among all Malays and are the most parochial and conservative.It is also the only state where the Chinese are very assimilated with local Malays, speaking the lingua franca, which is the Kelantanese Malay and conspicuously adopting some Malay culture and only practice the Chinese culture with less conspicuousness.Not unlike Indonesia, but very unlike the rest of Malaysia, sometimes, it is difficult to tell a Malay from a Chinese just by listening to his speech in Kelantanese Malay.Most Indonesian Chinese speak Bahasa Indonesia  among themselves and even when they are overseas.Kelantan almost fell to the BN in the 2004 Elections.

Sabah became an opposition state in 1985 when personal clash between Harris Salleh, the then Chief Minister of Sabah resulted in him sacking Joseph Pairin Kitingan, a minister in his cabinet, who later formed a new party PBS (Parti Bersatu Sabah), contested and won the state elections.Pairin became chief minister and ruled Sabah as opposition under PBS for almost two terms.

Terengganu fell to PAS in 1999.Mahathir quickly abrogate the oil royalty payment to the state and stated that the Federal government was under no obligation to give the money to the state government.It was a kind of sanction against Terengganu for voting PAS.The state reverted to BN in 2004 when Malaysians were euphoric about Badawai's clean image and gave him a thumping victory at the polls. The people had high expectations that 'Mr Clean' as he used to be popularly known would bring, as promised, reforms and clean up the administration of corruptions and abuse of power.That failed promise would cost him dearly.The euphoria turned to disgust. The thumping victory he got in 2004 turned out to be the biggest embarrassment for the BN in the 2008 General Elections.It lost its two-thirds majority, lost 5 states to the oppositions and revived the political career of Anwar Ibrahim.

Abdullah is not by any definition cut from the same cloth as former strongman and former Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad.After 22 years of Mahathir's autocratic ways Malaysians are not used to his meekly style.His weak leadership, inconsistencies and wanting to please everybody took a heavy toll on his leadership and personality.He was eventually pressured to step down by his own party and hand over the reins to his deputy in a transition deal that will see his exit as PM and President of the party in March 2009.

Can Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak restore BN's former glory ?

The testing ground for Najib's future as Prime Minister and the future of UMNO would be Kuala Terengganu.If UMNO wins the by-election on the 17th of this month than we can safely agree with former PM Mahathir than it was Abdullah's leadership that was the cause of BN poor showing in the March 2008 Elections.If UMNO loses, than it, maybe, sayonara for the party in the next general elections, unless Najib can quickly initiates reforms expected by the people.

The loss of Permatang Pauh to Anwar Ibrahim should not be used as a barometer to gauge Najib's and UMNO's popularity.It has always been Anwar's stronghold and has not wavered since the day he was thrown in prison.The fact is, his popularity actually rose while he was in prison.No matter what muck you made out of him, Anwar Ibrahim is still very popular among the youths and this group now holds the majority in the electoral votes.

They see in Anwar the embodiment of a new Malaysia, one that is free of corruptions and abuse of power.A perception that may not necessary hold water.

Although, I wouldn't exactly equate it to be the same, the misreading of Pak Lah was probably one of the best examples of "Judging a book by its cover",  even the man nearest to him have admitted he made a mistake choosing him and had soured the relationship to become his biggest opponent.

In the March 2008 Elections, UMNO won the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat on a wafer-thin majority against PAS. The Chinese votes probably tipped the scale in UMNO's favour.There appears to be equal division of the Malay votes between UMNO and PAS and the minuscule Chinese votes had become crucial for both political parties.The Chinese in KT had become the balancing power and kingmaker.Can Najib entice the Chinese to vote for UMNO's candidate Wan Ahmad Farid Salleh, reputedly to be very arrogant and unpopular?

Najib himself carry the same baggage tag.Not only the 'sombong' tag but also excess baggage, which would not endear him to the Terengganu voters. Anwar's PKR is trying very hard to drag his name through the mire by reminding the voters of his association with the murdered Mongolian model Althantuya Sariibuu, an allegation that was never proven but stays on as ammunition in the opposition's camp.If that's not enough, his image took an even more vile impression by his wife's lack of social skills.Grace may not be in every woman's makeup, it's partly nature, partly nurture. Social graces and etiquette are certainly nurtured.

It appears that Najib is going all out to win this battle.It was reported  that he was dishing out humongous amount of contracts to small-time Malay contractors through a method he called 'lucky draw' which he claimed "a world first" He said"In this lucky draw, every one wins.Every one gets a contract".He further reiterates that there will be more projects if UMNO won the by-election.

The contracts valued between RM30,000 to RM200,000 were distributed at random to contractors by bringing them on stage to click on a computer.The computer randomly picked the contract.No vetting and no question asked.Not to worry, no need to check the background of those so-called contractors, most of the contracts would eventually land in the hands of the China men.With a huge war chest, it would be hard to break the BN's money bag.Asia Sentinel has the report here.

It would be a neck to neck race to the finishing line and PAS seems to be the favourite among Pakatan supporters, punters and the blogging fraternity, but Najib might just pull this one off.

Winning the KT by-election would be his saving grace.Do not rule out possibility of the Malays returning to the fold.