Hantu Laut
There is a lot of hullabaloo about Mukhriz's contemplation of abolishing the vernacular schools to unify the education system and ultimately fostering national unity among the races.A good dream nonetheless, but certainly not a sure recipe for success.
As sure as the sunrise his rhetoric attracts the war drums of the oppositions and other non-Malay politicians.Although, I don't agree with him I wouldn't go overboard to take him seriously.I have seen this kind of sandiwara happened too many times before. Unless he is his father's son that call is pure histrionic.Whatever people may say about former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad, he is very focus on what he does and more often than not,he gets what he wanted.I am not sure about the son.It's too early to make a judgement.
Some politicians in this country seem to have the same standard pea-sized brain implanted in their heads and their eyes above their head that make them far better stargazers (the fish not the flower) than being politicians.They just can't differentiate rhetoric from reality.Rhetoric to fish for votes is common in politics and even more common in UMNO for those who wish to climb the ladder.Than there are some who responded to show concern only for the sole purpose of trying to gain political mileage within their community.
What I find rather amusing are those who are fond of running to the nearest police station to lodge police report alleging sedition over such trivia.Likewise, when Chua Soi Lek made a statement about ketuanan Melayu and relates it as to a master and servant relationship, tempers were flying in UMNO and the same allegations of sedition and police report were made.In the case of Chua they went one step further, the police called him for interview which, surprisingly, they didn't accord the same to Mukriz.
It is common political psychology used by those who wish to climb up the ladder to be seen as champion of Malay rights and ketuanan Melayu and Mukhriz is doing exactly that and nothing more.The gusto will cease after the UMNO elections.
Those shitheads from both sides of the ethnic divide have done more to disunite rather than unite.Just like religion, a common language does not guarantee to unite people.A good moral education at home and at schools are the right recipe to racial harmony, unity and respect for each other culture and religions.
Malaysia should maintain its multiplicity whether in language or education, these are the pillars of our strength that makes us different from other nations.The obstacle to unity is not language or education.The biggest obstacle to integration and unity are politicians.They are the culprits that caused the rift and continue doing so for selfish reason.
Mukriz had not done his homework and see for himself the actual situation in government schools, what integration are there in those schools when some parents tell their children not to mix with others if not their own kind.In fact the division of the races are more visible now than 40 years ago where a Malay would not hesitate to have a cup of coffee in a Chinese coffee shop.
Education is foremost for the Chinese,rich and poor, and the wealthy would donate generously to their schools making them better schools than most government schools.
In Sabah the standard of Chinese funded schools are so high even bumiputras are clamouring to send their children to such schools.
When are they going to grow up and do something more useful for the nation rather than imploding in triviality.
Leave those vernacular schools alone they are not doing any harm.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Badawi's State Of Euphoria - Revisited
Hantu Laut
Should we worry about the state of the economy? Our government have assured us that this country would be spared from the global recession and we have the safeguards to ensure we wouldn't be caught with our pants down.Do you believe them? Is there something they know that we don't? Surprisingly, even the Governor of Bank Negara had confidently said that there wouldn't be a recession in Malaysia.
How much money have the government spent to prop up the ringgit and the stocks market? Without intervention the ringgit would have depreciated much more against the US dollar.All major currencies except the Japanese Yen have depreciated against the dollar.The ringgit had no reason to stay at its present level other than two possibilities..... our export receipts have increased tremendously where we convert US dollars to ringgit or more likely Bank Negara is spending our money to prop up the ringgit.The latter sounds more plausible.
Below are US dollar against ringgit and other major currencies for July/Nov 2008:
US$1.00 to:
British Pound - July 0.49 Nov 0.69 -40.8%
Australian Dollar - July 1.01 Nov 1.53 -51.4%
Euro - July 0.62 Nov 0.80 -35.5%
Ringgit - July 3.26 Nov 3.53 -8.3%
Singapore Dollar - July 1.36 Nov 1.49 -9.6%
Japanese Yen - July 107 Nov 99 +7.5%
From the above you can see that the ringgit is seemingly a strong currency, is it ? The ringgit had also appreciated against other major currencies not because of its own strength but more due to the depreciation of those currencies against the dollar.I expect the ringgit to find its own level when the intervention stopped.
The bull run on the dollar was mainly due to China propping it up to protect its huge foreign exchange reserve of US$1.5 trillion in dollars and gold.How long the exercise would prevail is hard to tell.
Below is an article I wrote in January 2008 on the contagious US recession.
Badawi's State Of Euphoria
Should we worry about the state of the economy? Our government have assured us that this country would be spared from the global recession and we have the safeguards to ensure we wouldn't be caught with our pants down.Do you believe them? Is there something they know that we don't? Surprisingly, even the Governor of Bank Negara had confidently said that there wouldn't be a recession in Malaysia.
How much money have the government spent to prop up the ringgit and the stocks market? Without intervention the ringgit would have depreciated much more against the US dollar.All major currencies except the Japanese Yen have depreciated against the dollar.The ringgit had no reason to stay at its present level other than two possibilities..... our export receipts have increased tremendously where we convert US dollars to ringgit or more likely Bank Negara is spending our money to prop up the ringgit.The latter sounds more plausible.
Below are US dollar against ringgit and other major currencies for July/Nov 2008:
US$1.00 to:
British Pound - July 0.49 Nov 0.69 -40.8%
Australian Dollar - July 1.01 Nov 1.53 -51.4%
Euro - July 0.62 Nov 0.80 -35.5%
Ringgit - July 3.26 Nov 3.53 -8.3%
Singapore Dollar - July 1.36 Nov 1.49 -9.6%
Japanese Yen - July 107 Nov 99 +7.5%
From the above you can see that the ringgit is seemingly a strong currency, is it ? The ringgit had also appreciated against other major currencies not because of its own strength but more due to the depreciation of those currencies against the dollar.I expect the ringgit to find its own level when the intervention stopped.
The bull run on the dollar was mainly due to China propping it up to protect its huge foreign exchange reserve of US$1.5 trillion in dollars and gold.How long the exercise would prevail is hard to tell.
Below is an article I wrote in January 2008 on the contagious US recession.
Badawi's State Of Euphoria
| Written by Hantu Laut | |
| Wednesday, 30 January 2008 | |
| It’s whistling past the graveyard to think that Malaysia is going to escape a US downturn unscathed
Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is probably wrong if he is as confident as he says he is that that Malaysia is positioned to avert any negative fallout from a threatened US recession by virtue of trade with the rest of Asean, which on its surface outweighs that of the US. Following the Davos conference in Switzerland, the prime minister pointed out that 86 percent of Malaysia's GDP is domestically generated and added: "This has become one of our economic strengths (as we are no longer acutely dependent on external trade), and these strengths have come from the policies that we have drawn up and implemented, which are far-sighted.”
The small domestic market would not be able to consume excesses from a contracting export market. The major manufactured products for export, especially electronic and electrical products, are not suitable for domestic use. What are Malaysians going to do with a few billion dollars worth of unsold semiconductors, computer chips and other high-technology products? In the same year, export trade with Asean countries was RM154 billion. It is safe to assume that more than 60 percent of exports to Asean countries went to Singapore. Malaysia’s trade with Singapore was MR146.9 billion, making it the second largest trading partner after the U.S. With the exception of Thailand, trade with other Asean countries was insignificant. Lumping Singapore together with other Asean countries to show market diversification is self-deceiving and unjustified. Being the second largest trading partner and for the sake of clarity, Singapore should be classified individually. There also seems to be a great discrepancy between MATRADE figures and those given by an independent body SUITE101.com, which quoted Bridgesingapore.com, usembassy.com and the CIA World Factbook as its sources. The data shows Singapore's total trade with Malaysia in 2006 was US$77 billion. Taking an exchange rate at a constant US$1.00 - RM3.40, trade with Singapore was a whopping RM262 billion, not the RM146.9 billion MATRADE uses, making it the biggest trading partner, bigger than the US. Was the huge difference a result of under- and over-invoicing? It's difficult to say which figures were correct. This can only be established if the external trade corporation were to openly dispute the figures from the other sources.
|
UMNO Sabotaging Itself ?
Hantu Laut
Is there anyone in UMNO that is capable of making sense or are there internal forces within the party out to destroy it or they are just plain stupid not to see what they are doing could lead to their self-destruction.
Just a few days ago the Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak assured Malaysians that he would not return to the Mahathir's era type of administration and that he would bring about reforms in accordance with the people's aspiration.What he had just said must be a joke because the actions seemed to be pointing the other way.I honestly believe what's going on now is even worse than Mahathir's time.During Mahathir's time Chua Soi Lek would at worst get a tongue-lashing in private.
Well, damn me!, if I can understand the sensibility of dragging your partner to a police station for a chat over a trivial speech. About 'ketuanan Melayu' depicts a master and servant relationship.Read Tok Mommy's story here.
Anwar's dream of taking over the government is looking brighter now than before.Maybe, they should just handover the whole government to Anwar Ibrahim and spare UMNO the embarrassment of being badly mauled in the next general election.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
A Thrashed Democracy
Hantu Laut
In 1984 I attended a business conference at Oxford University jointly organised by International Herald Tribune and Oxford Analytica.Discussions and dialogues were centered on the major economies of G7 countries and other emerging economies.My point of interest at that time was the emerging economies of South East Asian countries and the Middle East.
The Asean region was the fastest growing particularly Singapore,Malaysia and Thailand.The region was growing at an average of 7.5% annually.The other important aspect we were looking at, other than the economy, was political stability.For businesses wanting to invest in a foreign country, political stability and bottom line sit at the top of the list of priorities.
Surprisingly, strange as it may sound, the political situation in Thailand today was a correct prediction made at the time we had the conference, some twenty four years ago.
Below is part of the write-up on Thailand in the booklet given to participants of the conference:
"Thai politics are at a point of stalemate.Groups opposed to the continuing dominance of the army--the urban middle class and rural peasantry--are, if anything, more opposed to each other.
Thailand has the appearance of a systemically unstable state, and it is.But paradoxically, Thailand's chronic instability gives it a unique form of long term political stability--no matter how many times the regimes change, and there have been 14 coup attempts in the last 50 years, the ultimate effect, and the type of government, is invariably the same."
The recent civil disorder in Bangkok that pit protesters against the government shows how the urban business elites, the army, the police and elements in the palace were hand in glove to remove a democratically elected prime minister.
The police refused to take orders from the Prime Minister to deal with the protesters in accordance with the law, instead, allowed the People Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to break the law with impunity. The army, usually quick to react in a volatile situation only stood on the sidelines.The PAD protesters seized both airports in the city and virtually closed them down stranding hundreds of thousand of tourists.
The People Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which is predominantly urban and middle class have paralysed Thai politics and the government as part of their campaign to force the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat whom they accused of being a puppet of his brother in law and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawara who was forced to resign under allegations of corruption and abuse of power.Somchai and Thaksin draw their supports from the rural poor which gave both of them convincing victory at the polls.
The sit-in protests which lasted for more than a week which have paralysed the tourism industry finally came to an end with the court ordering the removal of Somchai as Prime Minister and some of his members of cabinet from the government.Somchai was banned from politics for 5 years and his party disbanded for reason of electoral fraud by an executive of the party.
The court had done a fine job of thrashing democracy by submitting to demands of a small group of business elites and the urban middle class and ignored the wishes of the majority, the rural poor.
The political chaos and protests were only confined to Bangkok while other parts of the country were not affected.
What next for Thailand? Will Somchai and his supporters respect the court decision or will there be even bigger political upheavel in the pipeline?
Somchai and Thaksin have strong grassroots in the rural areas.Would there be an agrarian revolution?
Note:For those who are interested to read the one on Malaysia click here.
In 1984 I attended a business conference at Oxford University jointly organised by International Herald Tribune and Oxford Analytica.Discussions and dialogues were centered on the major economies of G7 countries and other emerging economies.My point of interest at that time was the emerging economies of South East Asian countries and the Middle East.
The Asean region was the fastest growing particularly Singapore,Malaysia and Thailand.The region was growing at an average of 7.5% annually.The other important aspect we were looking at, other than the economy, was political stability.For businesses wanting to invest in a foreign country, political stability and bottom line sit at the top of the list of priorities.
Surprisingly, strange as it may sound, the political situation in Thailand today was a correct prediction made at the time we had the conference, some twenty four years ago.
Below is part of the write-up on Thailand in the booklet given to participants of the conference:
"Thai politics are at a point of stalemate.Groups opposed to the continuing dominance of the army--the urban middle class and rural peasantry--are, if anything, more opposed to each other.
Thailand has the appearance of a systemically unstable state, and it is.But paradoxically, Thailand's chronic instability gives it a unique form of long term political stability--no matter how many times the regimes change, and there have been 14 coup attempts in the last 50 years, the ultimate effect, and the type of government, is invariably the same."
The recent civil disorder in Bangkok that pit protesters against the government shows how the urban business elites, the army, the police and elements in the palace were hand in glove to remove a democratically elected prime minister.
The police refused to take orders from the Prime Minister to deal with the protesters in accordance with the law, instead, allowed the People Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to break the law with impunity. The army, usually quick to react in a volatile situation only stood on the sidelines.The PAD protesters seized both airports in the city and virtually closed them down stranding hundreds of thousand of tourists.
The People Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which is predominantly urban and middle class have paralysed Thai politics and the government as part of their campaign to force the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat whom they accused of being a puppet of his brother in law and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawara who was forced to resign under allegations of corruption and abuse of power.Somchai and Thaksin draw their supports from the rural poor which gave both of them convincing victory at the polls.
The sit-in protests which lasted for more than a week which have paralysed the tourism industry finally came to an end with the court ordering the removal of Somchai as Prime Minister and some of his members of cabinet from the government.Somchai was banned from politics for 5 years and his party disbanded for reason of electoral fraud by an executive of the party.
The court had done a fine job of thrashing democracy by submitting to demands of a small group of business elites and the urban middle class and ignored the wishes of the majority, the rural poor.
The political chaos and protests were only confined to Bangkok while other parts of the country were not affected.
What next for Thailand? Will Somchai and his supporters respect the court decision or will there be even bigger political upheavel in the pipeline?
Somchai and Thaksin have strong grassroots in the rural areas.Would there be an agrarian revolution?
Note:For those who are interested to read the one on Malaysia click here.
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